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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
4th July
NOW POSTED WITH FREE CALOUNDRA CUP WORD DOC EMAILED ON PURCHASE FROM 10:15AM ONWARDS

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Big Red Tequilla
    Randwick
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 2.3 length 2nd in Race 5

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Super return! Lightly raced 4yo mare who won at Kembla resuming last time in with -1.5 lengths below benchmark, so at least a half length improvement, and from there produced +0.3 when also placed behind ICE KOOL here 27/12 but over 1100, so a big progression from here can be expected. -5.9 at the 800 four lengths from the lead, before +0.4 in the mid race and +0.2 last 400. It was the 5th time of her career that she's produced the best last 800 and 600 of the meeting, but the 10th best last 200 showed the late taper. Her last 400 is fully franked between +4.0 and +8.1. Looks in for a great prep!

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 20/06 then winner Rosehill 04/07

    Polyglot
    Rosehill
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent "back on track" run, after a very plain resuming 8th at Randwick 07/02 with blinkers going back on seemingly the "button pusher". Sat OSL going -2.5 at the 800, before -0.9 in the mid race and +4.5 last 400. Produced -0.3, -0.6 and -0.2 all also this track/distance last time in, and was off pace on each occasion. This is a great sign he can produce early tactical speed and should be very hard to stop from going one better next start in similar, and is capable on wet going if required.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Warwick Farm 11/03 and spelled. 2nd up Rosehill winner 04/07

    Duchess Zou
    Flemington
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 5

    -4.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    A barrier trial for $! Airborne mare who repeated her win at Sandown a fortnight earlier with another modest time 1400 on very wet ground, but she's just got away with a bludge. Again! Cruised going just -15.3 lengths below benchmark at the 800 stalking the lead before -7.4 from the 800 to 400, which even allowing for the very wet ground, was as slow as a runner could be going at Saturday city level. Let down with +0.4 last 400 with the context being it was the best of the day. Her PB this prep was a blistering +2.2 on firm ground at Caulfield over 1200 early April, but she's clearly at her best on soft ground. Can win again!

    Subsequently: 3rd Flemington 20/06 then winner Flemington 04/07

    Arabian Rose
    Doomben
    May 23, 2026

    The 1.6 length 2nd in Race 2

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    First up but came to play big time off a 98 day break with a clear new PB from 2.4 set winning New Years Day Eagle Farm. Thrived on the high tempo here going -2.9 at the 800, yet 5.5 lengths from the leaders who were overdoing it. -1.2 in the mid race meant virtually maintaining it, before a booming +5.2 last 400 with last bit best bit +3.9 last 300. Her sustained close included the 5th best last 800, the 2nd best last 600 and 400 and the 3rd best last 200 of the day. This was the 4th time she's run top 2 last 400 of a meeting. Lightly raced mare now at a new level. Eagle Farm BM85 in a fortnight, then to Ipswich 1350?

    Subsequently: Unplaced Eagle Farm 13/06 before winner Caloundra Cup 04/07

    General Salute
    Randwick
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 8

    Benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Very solid return to match the market support despite 224 days away. -6.6 at the 800 had him 3.8 lengths from the lead, before -3.6 in the mid race and +2.5 last 400. This last 200 in isolation was a super slick +3.3. The Daily rankings confirmed it with the best last 400 and 200 of the day. That's the fourth time he's produced those closing splits, and his +1.2 to +1.4 range best says he's got a winter stakes race in him if he remains sound whether here or the back end of the QLD carnival. Sound wet track indicator of +6.5 says this time of year is no issue, while his CV says 1200 to 1400 is his sweet spot.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 20/06 before winner Rosehill 04/07

    Thebudgiesmugla
    Randwick
    May 23, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 4

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Came off a -1.2 lengths below benchmark run at Gosford when a close up 5th, but ranked just 40th on their standalone day on good ground. Conversely this was in genuinely wet conditions, as he stepped from 2100 to 2400 when only 3rd up 2nd local prep Ex-NZ. Shared the lead going just -11.3 lengths below benchmark, before -2.0 in the mid race and -0.6 last 400. Did find 2.1 lengths under full pressure last 200. He's shown significant improvement this time in with his two Rosehill wins last spring just -7.0 and -5.0. With wet track indicators from +4.9 to +6.3 he'll thrive into winter conditions. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06. Winner Caloundra Cup 04/07

    Al Duca
    Flemington
    Mar 28, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 10

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    On pacer who received a "Craig Williams special" leading throughout and producing a new PB in the process. +1.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was good speed in the ground, before -1.3 in the mid race and -7.5 last two sections in a slow taper but getting others too tired to chase and pass him. This was a very strong 2.3 length elevation from his first up Caulfield 2nd. Makes his own luck with a very strong top two strike rate. Looks a weapon at this time of year ongoing. Perhaps the Bendigo Golden Mile as the target from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 11/04.

    Monte Supreme
    Randwick
    Apr 11, 2026

    The 1.2 length 5th in Race 10

    Benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run but ready! The race shape was dead against as she got back going just -7.2 at the 800, but her excellent and sustained close of +4.0 and +4.3 last 2 sections which included the 3rd best last 800 and 2nd best last 600 of the day. Last time in she peaked with a +2.1 when winning at Rosehill over 1100 metre when 3rd up, and she looks set to run to that from here. Perhaps the Hawkesbury Crown from here over 1300???

    Subsequently: 5th Randwick, 3rd Hawkesbury, 4th Scone before winner Eagle Farm Listed Lightning 06/06

    Davida
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 5

    -0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Emerging mare who backed up a big odds all the way win at Cranbourne a week earlier when -0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th of their city (MV) meeting. There went +3.4 lengths above benchmark, while here +4.3 so gets an extra tick for repeating high speed. +0.9 in the mid race, before -2.0 last 400. While "falling in" she was only 3rd up after knuckling jumping on wet ground Caulfield 29/11. Won her previous start - a maiden - at Echuca 20/09 when also leading throughout. Has the "free-wheeling" style suited to this time of year on clean ground and can win again out of this BM74 grade.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 07/02 and spelled. 2nd up SA Parks winner 27/06 at $11

    Splash Back
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 26, 2025

    The 0.8 lengths winner of Race 8

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the night.

    Summary

    Lightly raced 6yo mare who has only had 8 starts for the Begg stable and the best still looks in front of her. -5.2 at the 800 was typical of her relaxed racing pattern, but the race shape meant a big mid race extension wasn't needed. -0.8 from the 800 to 400, before +2.1 last 400. However it wasn't until straightening in the short straight with +3.1 last 200. That was the 3rd best of the night at the end of 1500 metres. In her 6 previous runs beyond 1200 metres she was top 2 last 200 of the meeting underlining her closing speed, which is comfortably in the +6 range. A bigger track looks ideal from here and possibly a mile.

    REPOST AFTER TATTS TIARA GROUP 1 WIN EAGLE FARM 27/06/26

    Splash Back
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 2

    -4.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 44th on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR time, but a dominant first up win after heavy market support and an excellent turn of foot when asked says stick with her! -7.1 at the 800 cruising 3 lengths from the lead. -3.7 in the mid race meant a gentle 3.4 length squeeze, but the +6.5 last 400 was brilliant. Regardless of the soft early tempo, she's ran the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the day. This is only her 2nd prep and 3rd run with the on fire Begg stable and in both her runs last spring she closed with the best last 400 and 200 of the day. The latter was Flemington Melbourne Cup Day. Relaxes and closes well. More to come!

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 21/06.

    REPOST AFTER TATTS TIARA GROUP 1 WIN EAGLE FARM 27/06/26

    Sun God
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just missed making it two from two this time in after an outstanding best of the day Scone carnival win with +2.3 lengths above benchmark. Here the main difference was when stepping from 1300 to the mile, was 4.4 lengths softer first section requiring a 5 length bigger mid race squeeze. -8.2 at the 800, before +3.9 in the mid race and +3.4 last 400. Lost 0.8 of a length over the last 200 strongly suggesting there's more to come now that he's got a platform. Ready to step up in distance from here. Ipswich Cup next?

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 27/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.