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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Mornington quaddy legs mini-form races 7 through 10 with quaddy suggestions FREE (full voucher back tomorrow)
April 20
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Sea What I Sea
    Flemington
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 6

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    4yo mare who has all four of her career wins this unbeaten prep, and we just haven't got a ceiling on her other than expecting more to come. -0.7 at the 800, before a sharp 4.5 length loss of speed going just -5.1 in the mid race as the leaders dropped anchor. +3.7 was a booming pick up, most of which (+2.7) was in the last 200 in isolation when winning easily. Two other wins have been by big margins, with the only narrow victory at Moonee Valley when out of severe traffic half way up the straight. We look forward to measuring her progress, with her ability to relax before unleashing a big sprint likely to be an ongoing asset.

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Cup Day 20/04

    Maharba
    Caulfield
    Mar 16, 2024

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 10

    +0.7 length 2nd in Race 10

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up progression from -2.6 this track/distance 3 weeks earlier, and this is actually a new PB for him chasing the rock hard fit BRUDENELL. -2.2 at the 800, -1.4 in the mid race, before +2.7 last 400. Of note he lost 1.5 lengths last 200 in isolation, so there's full expectations of conditioning benefits to come. Showed Cox Plate day he can produce a booming (+7.5) length last 400 off a soft tempo, but can also take a position in the run. Could step back to 3yo company next start, but either way be very hard to beat in similar.  

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Hareeba Listed 20/04

    Frigid
    Moonee Valley
    Mar 23, 2024

    The 0.6 length 4th in Race 4

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return after 182 days away. +2.3 at the 800 when 3 back the fence in a fast run 1500, +1.0 in the mid race and -3.5 last 400. Did find traffic, but also was inside in the slower lanes. Last prep peaked with +1.1 lengths above benchmark winning at Sandown 5th run in, as well as a Caulfield win with +0.2. Her last 400 when fit was between +2.3 and +6.0, so that's where improvement should come. Should elevate from this and be very hard to beat.

    Subsequently: 3rd Caulfield 06/04 then winner Mornington Cup Day 20/04

    Overpass
    Ascot
    Dec 2, 2023

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 9

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Won this Group 1 at the same track/distance as the Quokka in April which was +3.6 but off a lead speed of +4.3. Here cruised in front going -2.7 so 7 lengths slower first 400 metres! +2.2 mid race and +3.6 last 400 made it effectively impossible for him to be caught. No reason he can't run a strong 1400 if staying here for the Gold Rush in a fortnight. 

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up winner Quokka 20/04

    Magnificent Andy
    Ascot
    Nov 25, 2023

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 6

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    (Note added 15/12. Customers emailed.) Deep into his prep, but airborne with this performance the 2nd best of his career, from his +2.6 winning at Kalgoorlie in a high pressure Listed 1400 over LET'S GALAHVANT who just beat him here. +1.4 at the 800 sitting 2nd line, +3.6 in the mid race and +1.6 last 400. Only has to hold this level tomorrow to take a power of beating for Oliver. 

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 15/12. Spelled and winner Ascot 20/04

    Magic Time
    Caulfield
    Nov 18, 2023

    The 1 length winner of Race 8

    +2.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Stamped herself at a new level this prep continuing her terrific level producing +2.3, +2.0 and +2.3 in her last three runs including here. +3.1 at the 800 sitting midfield, +2.7 in the mid race and -2.0 last 400. Note in the first of her wins her last 400 was +6.5 off a softer lead speed showing her tactical versatility. Her previous level was +0.6, so she's trending the right way to get into the high +3 range which could see her win a mares Group 1 like the Coolmore or Queen of The Turf.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Resumed unplaced Newmarket and TJ Smith, before winner All Aged Stakes Randwick 20/04

    Broadcasting
    Randwick
    Apr 13, 2024

    The 2.1 length winner of Race 1

    -5.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 88th on the day

    Summary

    A very low IVR figure to make Sizzlers, but the context is at time of writing he's backing up in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes, and this race shape combined with his ability to relax and close, says he can sail past his -3.7 PB to date and run very well. -9.3 at the 800, before -1.2 in the mid race, and +3.2 last 400. Was in traffic throughout relaxing in the run as he stepped to the mile for the first time, and was only clear half way up the straight. That he let down with +2.9 last 200 which was the 15th best of the day is a great sign, and he's previously closed with a +4.1 and +3.5 last 400 so his closing speed is fully franked for a juvenile. 

    Subsequently: Winner Champagne Stakes 20/04

    Zougotcha
    Rosehill
    Mar 16, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 8

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    High quality mare who went on with her brilliant first up win when +1.3 lengths above benchmark, and while she regressed a bit via the IVR times, she's found a tough day to run time, and we expect further improvement from here. +0.2 at the 800, -0.1 in the mid race and +0.8 last 200. Has a PB of a blistering +3.5 set as an autumn filly, and there's no reason she can't touch that from here, making her dangerous ongoing in anything.

    Subsequently: Winner Queen of the Turf Randwick 13/04

    Pride Of Jenni
    Flemington
    Nov 11, 2023

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    +4.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Amazing iron mare who backed up a +2.8 lengths above benchmark Empire Rose win Derby Day ranked best of the day, with this +4.6 lengths above benchmark best of the day win just 7 days later. +8.9 at the 800 was very fast, but 6.6 lengths slower than a week earlier! +4.1 mid race before -6.7 last 400. Her best this prep was +5.1 when 2nd in track record time Moonee Valley, so she's doing it and holding it! We look forward to see what happens next prep!

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up 2nd Orr 10/02 then winner All Star Mile 16/03. 2nd Australian Cup 30/03 then winner Randwick QE Stakes 13/04

    Pride of Jenni
    Caulfield
    Feb 10, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    In going down by a nose to established star MR BRIGHTSIDE, the new iron horse of Australian racing, has smashed her best ever first up run set Sandown last February when benchmark. Led as is usual going +4.4 at the 800, before +5.4 in the mid race so to underline a combined 9.8 lengths above benchmark first 1000 metres. Last 400 was -4.5 and the last 200 in isolation -2.7. So she was short of full fitness (as expected) and hard the fence meant no lane advantage. Looks set to run to her +4.6 to +5.1 range again this prep.

    Subsequently: Winner All Star Mile 16/03. 2nd Australian Cup 30/03 then winner Randwick QE Stakes 13/04

    Territory Express
    Rosehill
    Mar 16, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    This is a "left field" slow maturing runner with talent! 3rd career prep, only breaking his maiden status last time in with his best being -1.3 lengths below benchmark, and often missing the start. First up Kembla however won with a best of the day +0.4 lengths above benchmark, but his close was a booming 2nd best last 600 and best last 400 and 200, with the IVR last 400 being +6.5. Here +0.6 at the 800 worse than midfield, +0.8 mid race before +3.7 last 400. The last 200 in isolation was +3.0. He's clearly got stakes level ability and has wins ahead.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick $1 million Midway 13/04

    Pride of Jenni
    Flemington
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    +4.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Another amazing run from this new iron horse of Australian Racing, and of a level that states this distance range is of no concern while she keeps racing like this. A blistering +15.5 at the 800, before -0.5 in the mid race, and -5.7 last 400.  Did have a 1.7 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before rebounding 1.4 lengths last 200 under full pressure trying to hang on, and from a pure data perspective it probably cost her the race. She's matched her Champions Mile win performance from an IVR perspective, but did so at 2000 metres. If going to the Queen Elizabeth she should run very well as "flat run rules" don't seem to apply to her!

    Subsequently: Winner QE Stakes 13/04 Randwick 

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.