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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington form with bonus interstate word doc
6th June
NOW POSTED WITH BONUS EAGLE FARM FORM EMAILED FROM 10:15 N/C

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Roadcone
    Caulfield Heath
    Dec 20, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 4

    -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    "Fell in" against at odds on favourite after getting the perfect run in front, but he's come off -6.5 first up and -2.3 mid November and given he was off a 5 week break, there should be more to come. +0.7 at the 800 was 6.7 length race to race elevation of early speed, before +0.9 in the mid race. Last 400 was -2.1 and that taper is where the improvement can come from. Won at Sandown 4th up late May with a similar figure, but a +3.3 last 400 turn of foot. Flemington BM84 January 10 from here???

    Reposting after 3rd up win Flemington 06/06 again with Luke Cartwright back on 

    Surfin Bird
    Hawkesbury
    May 2, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 7

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return to start just her 2nd prep after last time in progressing from a Moe maiden to bolting in at Caulfield in a BM70 with +0.8 lengths above benchmark. So to return just missing in a Group 3 with her 2nd best career performance is a great sign of a super campaign ahead. -1.8 and -1.5 first two sections leading duo, before +4.7 last 400, and +3.0 last 200 in isolation. Her profile says the mid race is where improvement will come, so a solid winning front running performance would be no surprise from here.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Scone 16/05 then winner $500,000 Magic Millions mares Eagle Farm 06/06

    Duchess Zou
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Ready and set for a huge prep! 2nd up 7th career run 2nd prep, and has smashed her previous PB of -0.7 saying "next level" in the process. Sat 3wnc on the over the one bend 1200, before +4.0 in the mid race and +2.4 last 400. This included a 1.5 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, before a late 1 length rebound over the last 200. IVR figure was adjusted down 5 lengths allowing for the firm track, and note she won her only 1400 race at the end of her last campaign Flemington 19/07. Anzac Day next from here?

    Subsequently: 2nd Mornington 18/04, unplaced Bendigo 02/05 then winner Sandown 23/05 and winner Flemington 06/06

    Ice Kool
    Randwick
    Dec 27, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 5

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Good sustained 1100 metre speed from this 3yo having just his 2nd career start, after bolting in a Warwick Farm maiden on debut over a 1000 metres. There he exploded out of the barriers with +2.5 first section being 200 metres off a standing start. Here -2.4 at the 800, before +1.7 in the mid race and +1.6 last 400. Did lose a length over the last 200 in isolation as all seen via the 5th best last 800 of the day, but just the 10th best last 200. May be a short course specialist, but either way if he holds this figure placed conservatively from this BM72 level, he can bring up the hatrick without surprise.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Gold Coast 10/01 and spelled. First up winner Randwick 06/06

    Regal Award
    Caulfield
    Oct 15, 2025

    The 7.5 length winner of Race 2

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Demolished a small field, but after a "car crash" watch when 4th at Sandown as short favourite, here has shown a glimpse of his true talent, with the strong indication there's much more to come. Led going +0.3 at the 800, then had a 2 length slowdown under a hold with -1.7 from the 800 to 400. Let down with +4.3, but lost 3.3 lengths last 200 in isolation with no competition near him. As such another level well above benchmark into the Carbine Club Flemington is highly likely. If so he'll take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: 2nd in the Carbine Club Derby Day. REPOST AFTER FRED BEST WIN 30/05 EAGLE FARM

    Athanatos
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 9

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Has a booming PB of +1.8 lengths above benchmark when 4th in the elite Toorak Handicap last prep 4th run in here over a mile, and this run has progressed him big time from -2.9 same track/distance 3 weeks earlier. +1.8 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was 3 lengths from the lead, and had him going 7.2 lengths faster race to race. +3.7 in the mid race and +3.0 last 400 showed a very strong and sustained chase, but note he lost 1.4 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. That's a great sign that a conditioning peak is to come from this. 1600 looks perfect here or in SA. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 25/04 then winner $500,000 Gosford 09/05. Winner Lord Mayor's Cup Eagle Farm 30/05

    Athanatos
    Gosford
    May 9, 2026

    The 1.1 length winner of Race 8

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him two starts back 04/04 Caulfield 1400 when also +0.9 lengths above benchmark, and given he was 2nd up in a sustained pressure set up, it clearly flattened him going to Flemington last start when just -3.3 lengths below benchmark. Here he's won the $500,000 feature and there should be more to come. -2.2 and -2.7 first two sections stalking the lead, before +2.5 last 400 so a perfect "cruisey" race shape. His PB is +1.8 when 4th in the high quality Toorak Handicap last spring at Caulfield, so another length is a conservative expectation from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Lord Mayors Cup Eagle Farm 30/05 at $10

    The Western Front
    Flemington
    Apr 25, 2026

    The 2 length winner of Race 1

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 33rd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his Caulfield win 3 weeks earlier when -1.7 lengths above benchmark having his first distance run of his 15 run career, and while he's come off that figure from an IVR perspective, there's a good argument to say it was strong again. Just -10.7 at the 800 had him 6.1 rather than 2.6 lengths from the lead, while +3.9 from the 800 to 400 was a very strong 14.6 length midrace squeeze. Last 400 was +2.4 and he was the only horse in the race to break benchmark in the straight. In addition his Ground Made Up figure was a very strong 7.8. He's relaxing and hitting the line hard. Andrew Ramsden chance???

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 16/05 then winner Sandown Cup 31/05

    Regal Award
    Randwick
    Apr 11, 2026

    The 1.3 length 3rd in Race 2

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 32nd on the day

    Summary

    This was a monster run way beyond his "raw" IVR figure, and one of a horse with serious ability. Was "crunched" on jumping and that had him going just -9.9 at the 800 when 10.4 lengths from leader/winner BESKAR. He's comfortably a benchmark early type with natural speed under normal circumstances. +6.9 from the 800 to 400 and that's a monster 16.8 length mid race squeeze. That he was nearly able to maintain the close underlined the performance with +4.2 last 400. The ground made up figure was a super strong +9.3. His PB currently sits at -0.3 and that looks likely to be easily covered going forward with better luck in running.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Hawkesbury 02/05 then winner Eagle Farm 30/05 at $26 to $18

    Providence
    Randwick
    Apr 18, 2026

    The 0.9 length 2nd in Race 5

    -3.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 47th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this was a booming run, and one which says "take notice" on his QLD Derby campaign. -11.3 at the 800 had him effectively in a non-winning position when 11 lengths from the lead, before +2.9 from the 800 to 400. That's a booming 14.2 length squeeze, and he sustained it home with +6.7 last 400. His Ground Made Up figure was an excellent 10 lengths. His PB to date it -2.6 when 2nd to VRC Derby winner OBSERVER in his lead in at Moonee Valley, and there he crushed the line with the best last 200 of Cox Plate day at the end of 2040 metres. Stand by!

    Subsequently: 3rd Doomben 16/05 then winner Queensland Derby 30/05

    Sounds Unusual
    Wyong
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 2 length 2nd in Race 4

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 49th on the day

    Summary

     A very low IVR figure to include after disappointing the market as favourite, but he was just 3rd up and had the key negative of going from a fast mile to a slow middle distance (2100 metres) race shape. At the 800 was going -7.4 lengths below benchmark compared to -2.4 at Randwick a fortnight earlier. Closed with benchmark and +1.1 last two sections and the 7.4 length squeeze from the 800 to 400 took away his capacity to produce a further turn of foot. His rating means he can drop back to BM78 if asked and now has a grounding to win similar.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick 24/01 and spelled. 3rd up Rosehill winner 30/05

    Silver Wedding
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 5

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced mare who at start 10 found for the first time in her career and race of pressure on a firm track and exploded! +2.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 but 4.4 from the flying leaders. +3.1 in the mid race and +2.7 last 400 masked a 2.6 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, before a 2.2 length hard rebound last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 42nd best last 600, but the 15th best last 200 of the day at the end of 1400 metres and a raw time of +8.2 which is blistering. Won his previous start Doomben 3 weeks earlier with just -4.9 in a 400 dash home race shape, but this states there's more to come. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Eagle Farm 03/01 then unplaced in NZ. First up winner Eagle Farm 30/05

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.