Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington Makybe Diva preview podcasts with Vince Accardi Friday one hour deep dive Saturday 10-15 update
12TH SEPTEMBER
"preview podcast" section available till 7pm Friday

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Buccleuch
    Sandown Hillside
    Aug 22, 2026

    The 4.5 length winner of Race 2

    -1.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Big return! Resumed with good market support despite 196 days away, and then aided by the last scratching of hot favourite CRUISERWEIGHT, but it's hard to think he wouldn't have beaten him too with this effortless win. -4.6 at the 800 stalking the leaders before -5.3 in the mid race. Last 400 was benchmark, but note losing 1.6 lengths over the last 200 in isolation via whatever combination of having the race won and conditioning. He was a very promising late 2yo winning 3 in a row including 2 at Flemington with booming ground made up figures, but didn't come up in two summer runs. He's got more wins in store.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 09/07

    Changing Colours
    Caulfield Heath
    Aug 8, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 9

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Another win and another bludge! Airborne for the new stable and the data screams they haven't got to the bottom of her given she's had two slow tempo/dash home race shapes 1st and 2nd up. Won at Flemington with the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day, and here from the inside barrier Blake Shinn was concentrating on easing and hooking wide at the top of the straight for clean air. So -6.8 when 3.2 lengths from the lead at the 800, before -1.3 in the mid race was a "cruise" before +2.3 last 400, but the last 200 in isolation +2.8. That was the 3rd best of the day at the end of 1500. This distance again at Sandown next?

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 09/09

    Warnie
    Caulfield
    Aug 15, 2026

    The 1.5 length 4th in Race 8

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return back from QLD and in trip from 1400 off a 63 day break. -7.2 at the 800 conceding early settling 6.7 lengths from the leader/winner, before a booming mid race move of 8.4 lengths going +1.3 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was a sound -0.9 after that exertion. 4th best last 800 and 600 of the day, but just the 15th best last 200 showed the late conditioning blow out. His 1400 profile is a rock solid +1.8 range and he looks set to run to that from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Chautauqua Stakes Sandown 09/09

    My Gladiola
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 2.3 length 2nd in Race 6

    +2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Bumped into a rising star in TENTRYIS but particularly if going back to the fillies only sprints from here, she should have stakes wins ahead off this excellent Group 1 runner up. +0.4 at the 800 which was 3.7 lengths from the lead, before +22.2 and +4.0 last two sections. She's extended her PB from her previous start when here over 1100 producing +1.6, and that was in a much softer tempo race shape. Whether she has another run - Blue Sapphire Caulfield 30/11??? - or spells, her ability to relax and close hard is an ongoing asset for her. 

    REPOST AFTER GROUP 1 MOIR WIN SANDOWN 05/09

    My Gladiola
    Flemington
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 8

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Ran 2nd to TENTYRIS with a brilliant +2.0 in the Coolmore last spring, and has returned at a new level, but was simply unlucky bumping into the same superstar colt again. -4.2 at the 800, before -0.4 in the mid race and +7.5 last 400. This has smashed anything she's previously done fresh and stated she's now at a new level. To state the obvious she faces a huge challenge to turn the tables on the winner, but if she can avoid him she's ready to beat most anywhere in the country.

    REPOST AFTER FIRST UP WIN GROUP 1 MOIR SANDOWN 05/09

    Behaviour
    Caulfield
    Jul 11, 2026

    The 0.3 length 3rd in Race 2

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Blinkers went on and with some big odds market support he just missed with possibly being "stuck" in the inner lanes and facing the headwinds the difference between winning and losing. -5.0 and -5.8 first two sections showed the impact into it in the chute, before -3.1 last 400. He lost 2.1 lengths in isolation tapering late from his first "proper" run for the prep 3rd up. He won at the late July meeting in 2025 with -1.3 lengths below benchmark which he also matched here 4th up last prep January. The BM84 over 1100 in a fortnight looks ideal?

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 25/07 then winner Caulfield Heath 08/08, backed up 3rd Caulfield 15/08 then winner Sandown 05/09

    Lindermann
    Randwick
    Sep 6, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner in Race 7

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Elevated big time near his all time best after a "nothing" run on the very wet ground that he doesn't handle a fortnight earlier, and was of course assisted by a front-running genius ride from Nash Rawiller. -1.1 at the 800 was a cruise for his profile and capacity. +3.5 in the mid race and +1.1 last 400 before just hanging on over the hard charging SIR DELIUS. He's a rock solid +2.5 to +3.6 range miler/2000 type with 6 performances in that band, and this (only) even tempo here says he can push to that outer edge from here with any flatness being of little concern.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd to FANGIRL 20/09 Randwick before winner Rosehill 11/10

    REPOST AFTER WINNING THIS RACE AGAIN 2026

    Tempted
    Randwick
    Apr 11, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 6

    +4.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Outstanding filly who extended her PB from 2nd in the Everest to KA YING RISING and +4.1 lengths above benchmark, and the data strongly suggests there's more to come next spring. -1.1 at the 800 relaxing 2 lengths from the lead in the compressed field, before a booming and sustained last 800 going +5.4 and +4.3. However she did lose 1.6 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 2nd best last 800 and 4th best last 400 of the day, but just the 12th best last 200. It's from that taper where's there's confidence there's still solid potential upside into the "super elite" +6 range.

    Subsequently: First up winner Randwick 05/09

    Beadman
    Rosehill
    Aug 21, 2026

    The 5.3 length 5th in trial 1

    -5.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 48th of the session

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo stallion of quality with a current PB of +1.8 lengths above benchmark from the Gold Coast in May, and his profile plus both his trials - including Randwick a week earlier when closing with the best last 800 and 600, and 2nd best last 400 of the session - says his best is still in front of him. -8.7 at the 800, before -3.3 and +3.6 last 400. The last 3 x 200 increments told the tale. +0.2, +1.2 and +2.3 which were the 5th best last 600 and the 3rd best last 400 and 200 of the session. He's on point for a super prep. Perhaps targeting Melbourne Group 1 sprints to avoid the Everest elites???

    Subsequently: 3rd to TEMPTED and HEADWALL at $34 Randwick 05/09

    Headwall
    Rosehill
    Aug 21, 2026

    The 3 length 2nd in trial 1

    -4.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    He hasn't been seen race day since winning last year's Challenge Stakes at Randwick with a blistering +1.8 lengths above benchmark beating LADY SHENANDOAH, but this and three other trials says the stable have him dead set humming and ready to defend his title. -10.8 at the 800 when 4.6 lengths from the winner, before +0.2 in the mid race and +4.7 last 400 including a blistering +3.9 last 200 in isolation. Further confirmation was the "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the morning. 

    Subsequently: 2nd to TEMPTED first up Randwick 05/09

    Headley Grange
    Eagle Farm
    May 30, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 8

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Job done getting the Group 1 win, but his CV says there could still be more to come going into the Stradbroke. Stalked the lead going -0.5 at the 800, before -2.5 in the mid race and lifting under full pressure in the best ground with +1.7 last 400 noting the last 200 in isolation +2.1. Further context via the 13th best last 800, the 6th best last 600 and the 4th best last 400 and 200. His best to date is +2.9 set at Rosehill October, and that was off +0.9 best of the day winning a Newcastle Group 3, so he's had a "very good and better again" set up previously. 

    Subsequently: First up winner Randwick 05/09

    Headley Grange
    Randwick
    Aug 28, 2026

    The 0.4 length 2nd in trial 2

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th of the morning

    Summary

    Excellent trial which states his set to again run boldly off the QLD carnival now a Group 1 winner. -10.2 at the 800 when 3.4 lengths from the lead, before -4.4 in the mid race. It was all about the last 200 and it was big. -0.6 from the 600 to 400 and again from the 400 to 200, yet his close was +3.1 meaning a 3.7 length turn of foot when asked. He had one quiet 822 trial 10 days earlier, so this one over 1045 metres has him on point to return to the races, and note his first up profile is first class.

    Subsequently: First up winner Randwick 05/09

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.