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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
MARCH 14
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Salty Pearl
    Flemington
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 4.5 length 3rd in Race 5

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 36th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! A "sideways" run from Caulfield last start when well beaten by subsequent electric Randwick Guineas Group 1 winning SHEZA ALIBI, and here has bumped into another real talent in SASS APPEAL. -2.9 at the 800 was good speed, but she was 3.4 lengths from leader/winner, and then produced a big 7.3 length mid race squeeze going +4.3 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +1.3 as the run told. Note blinkers are still to come, and Moonee Valley Cox Plate day last prep won with a PB of +0.3 4th up. She's 4th up from here. Caulfield Alexandra from here 21/03?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield with blinkers on 14/03

    Lazzura
    Rosehill
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in race 9

    Benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Got "worried out" of the finish late, but by the rock hard fit CINSAULT compared to her resuming after 112 days away. -2.8 lengths above benchmark sitting 2nd line was 10 lengths faster than her first section last prep albeit on wet ground, before -0.7 in the mid race. Her last 400 of +4.2 was sound, but below her booming close she's capable of in lesser tempos/when fit. She has a PB of +1.0 set 2nd up last March and that looks a conservative target from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Group 1 Coolmore Rosehill 14/03

    Sixties
    Flemington
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him when an outstanding +1.7 lengths above benchmark 3rd best of the day at Rosehill first up which included the "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day, so here the question is; "was it a flat run win???" Yes covered ground throughout, but -1.6 at the 800, and -1.4 in the mid race was relatively "cruisey" before +4.7 last 400. Given the softish first 1000 he could be expected to do more, however given "grand final day" is a fortnight from now in the Australian Guineas, it's actually the perfect platform to go to a new level. Should take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: 3rd Australian Guineas 28/02 then winner Phar Lap Rosehill 14/03

    Birdman
    Flemington
    Feb 28, 2026

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 7

    +3.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him a fortnight earlier when an excellent +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th of the day first up over 1400, but here has exploded to a clear Australian PB. (From +1.3). Relaxed early going -6.9 when 5.6 lengths from the lead, before a booming +12.1 length mid race squeeze with +5.2 from the 800 to 400. That he was able to not only sustain, but increase his speed underlined the quality of the performance with his last 400 +6.9. Actually peaked at the 200 losing +0.7 of a length late. This strongly suggests he's still on the up. Should take a power of beating in the Australian Cup from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Group 2 Caulfield 14/03

    Flying For Fun
    Rosehill
    Nov 29, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Had the perfect run, but down in class and away from the Heavy track in the Champions Sprint Flemington, has rebounded with a very solid winning performance. -1.8 at the 800, before +0.9 in the mid race - note in the softest part of the track - before +0.1 last 400. Did gas out late losing 1.4 lengths last 200 in isolation, as also seen via the 2nd best last 800, the 3rd best last 600, but just the 22nd best last 200 of the day. Given she was already fit, we put that down to her "firmer the better" profile. At Warwick Farm 08/10 and Flemington 01/11 her last 400 splits were +7.9 and +7.5 respectively.

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Rosehill 07/03

    Scampi
    Ballarat
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 5

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Short course specialist who was just picked off late over 1100 which is at the end of his distance range and particularly when resuming on soft ground, but has produced a top 4 performance and it says he can add to his 4 career wins to date. -2.9 at the 800, before +0.5 in the mid race and -1.8 last 400. All of that drop off was over the last 200 metres, and this conditioning taper was also seen via the 2nd best last 800, but just the 14th best last 200 of the day. His Cranbourne and Ballarat 1000 wins last time in both produced the "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. Should take beating from here.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 27 December, 5th Gold Coast 10th January, 3rd Gold Coast 17th January then winner 14th March Gold Coast

    Warwoven
    Eagle Farm
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 3.3 length winner of Race 3

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 24th on the day

    Summary

    We labelled his debut a fortnight earlier "monster" when -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day at Randwick over a 1000 metres, and while he's come off that stepping to 1200, there's genuine merit in this win that says he's bang on target for the Magic Millions grand final. -1.9 at the 800 stalking the lead pack, before -1.7 in the mid race, and Benchmark last 400. Lost a length over the last 200 with the race won, and using the excellent "ground made up" indicator he's produced 5.5 lengths winning easily. This was the perfect lack of pressure set up to produce a new PB at the Gold Coast.

    Subsequently: Missed the Magic Millions. 4th Randwick 28/02 then winner Rosehill 14/03

    Harry's Yacht
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 6

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him two starts earlier when "stuck" in the slow lane on the poor Ballarat Cup Day track with -4.7 lengths below benchmark. Was tight favourite a week earlier, but hung in at Cranbourne when looming and fading before running 3rd with -2.8 lengths below benchmark. Here with the "gear change" of Jamie Melham on went -0.9 at the 800 when OSL, before -1.7 in the mid race, and +3.1 last 400. This is a new career PB from -1.1 winning at Mornington and -1.4 at Caulfield. Clearly he's a slow maturing type still learning his racing manners, and he should remain very competitive at this time of year.

    Subsequently: 4th Flemington 17/01 before 3rd Caulfield 31/01. Winner Caulfield 21/02 and winner Caulfield 14/03

    Vauban
    Rosehill
    Mar 15, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 5

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Stunning return from the now "local" with Waterhouse Bott after two unplaced runs as an import in Melbourne Cups only previous local runs. -3.6 at the 800 while rear of the 6 horse field was excellent early speed and a great sign he's now got pace in his legs. +2.9 in the mid race was a solid +6.5 length squeeze, before a booming +7.4 last 400 which included +4.8 last 200 in isolation so last bit best bit. Only has to drag this figure to 2400 - likely - to take a power of beating in the Tancred.

    REPOST: Winner same race 2026 Rosehill 14/03

    Birdman
    Flemington
    Feb 14, 2026

    The 0.9 length 4th in Race 7

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    What a return! Import effectively just starting his 3rd full prep with Chris Waller - after a Geelong Cup "cameo" spring 2024, and he's "screamed" the champion trainer has him right and ready to go to a new level. -3.5 at the 800 was very good speed for a 1400 given his staying profile, before -1.3 in the mid race and a booming +7.2 last 400. His all time Australian PB is +1.3 set winning over 2000 at Randwick 3rd up last September, and it would be no surprise if he sailed past that this time in. The Australian Cup looks a logical target from here before heading back to Sydney.

    Subsequently: Winner Blamey 28/02.

    Port Albert
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 1.9 length 4th in Race 7

    -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Up front this is hardly a confident "stamping", but this 6yo who didn't come up last prep had jumped out very well for his return where he showed very good speed before a big tank out late. +1.5 at the 800, which he matched in the mid race going +1.4. Last 400 was -3.3 and the last 200 in isolation being -2.4 so a complete gas out at the end of 1100 metres. This was also seen via the 11th best last 800 of the day, but just the 40th best last 200. He won at Moonee Valley over 955 October 2024, and perhaps a return to the current equivalent at Cranbourne would be ideal from here???

    Subsequently: Winner 06/02 Cranbourne 955. Winner again 13/03 Cranbourne 955 

    Everain
    Caulfield
    Jan 24, 2026

    The one length winner of Race 4

    Benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Started his 2nd full racing prep with another first up win after good market support, but this was easily his best IVR figure finding a high pressure firm track 1400 compared to soft tracks and tempos. +3.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was the fastest first section of his career by 3 lengths, yet he was 6 lengths from the lead! +1.5 in the mid race before -2.2 last 400. Lost 3 lengths over the last 200 in isolation which is understandable given the heat and the resuming run. That says more to come and given this is basic BM70 class it should equate to working through the grades this time in.

    Subsequently: 3rd Caulfield Heath 18/02 before winner Sandown 11/03

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.