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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
September 14
Posted 9am Saturday

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Miss Aria
    Sandown
    May 25, 2024

    The one length winner of Race 3

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne winning her 3rd race for the prep, and didn't have the race shape go her way either noting she did produce the best 1200 and best 1000 of the day after conceding 6.3 lengths to the leader at the 800 when -3.8 lengths below benchmark. In the mid race went +0.4 with last bit best bit +4.9 last 400. Her best this prep was +1.5 set in SA when sitting 2nd line in a high pressure set up going +5.3 first section. This is only BM78 level and at this time of year can keep winning.

    Subsequently: 4th Ipswich 22/06 then 2nd Group 3 Sunshine Coast 14/07. First up Moonee Valley winner 07/09

    Mornington Glory
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 10, 2024

    The 3.8 length winner of Race 5

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    A monster 2nd up rebound from a "nothing" (-8.9) resuming run at Caulfield on very wet ground 4 weeks earlier that reflected the pre-race market support that he was coming to play. -0.1 at the 800, -4.2 in the mid race, before -2.2 last 400 running away. (Last 200 -0.4 last bit best bit.) He's better on firmer ground too with a +2.1 up the Flemington straight, a +0.6 also this track/distance and a +1.1 when 3rd in the Oakleigh Plate. Could well beat higher rated sprinters in a Listed/Group 3 on a conditioning advantaged basis next start and particularly staying in the shorter course sprints.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 24/08. Then winner Group 1 Moir Moonee Valley 07/09

    Mornington Glory
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 24, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 8

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him a fortnight earlier when also best of the day with +0.1 lengths above benchmark, and not only has he improved as expected, but there should still be more to come. -2.4 at the 800, before -0.7 in the mid race and +3.0 last 400. That close was 5.2 lengths faster race to race reflecting of improved conditioning and cleaner ground. Produced last 400s of +6.1 and +4.8 on firm tracks in the summer and his best overall was +2.1 set at Flemington. Whether that figure is good enough to win a Moir (likely target) is a query as it looks very strong, but he should be running close to his best.

    Subsequently: Winner Moir 07/09

    I Am Me
    Moonee Valley
    Mar 23, 2024

    The 2.2 length 3rd in Race 8

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day.

    Summary

    Excellent return from this 5yo mare with a terrific winning strike rate, in line with +1.2 and +1.8 resuming last two preps. Was 2nd line at the 800 going +1.6, before +2.8 in the mid race, and -1.2 last 400. Gassed right out last 200 in isolation losing 1.4 lengths. Peaked last prep running 2nd to IMPERATRIZ here with +2.7 and there's no reason she can't test this from here. A race like the Sangster in SA looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Twice 4th SA Group 1s and spelled. First up winner Randwick 07/09.

    Manaal
    Rosehill
    Mar 23, 2024

    The 2.3 length 5th in Race 8

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 48th on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR figure, but a booming mid race says this filly looks a genuine chance in the Sires Produce and/or the Champagne stakes stepping to a mile. Only -8.1 at the 800 effectively in a non-winning position when 8.4 lengths from the lead. +4.9 from the 800 to 400 was a 13 length squeeze which was the clear best in the race, before -2.1 last 400. This included a sharp 2.2 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Her first up run was 2.9 lengths 2nd to LADY OF CAMELOT over 1100, before -1.8 in winning strongly Randwick 02/03.

    Subsequently: Winner Sires Produce 06/04 before 4th Champagne. Spelled first up 3rd Randwick 24/08 before winner Randwick 07/09

    A Little Deep
    Caulfield
    Aug 17, 2024

    The one length winner of Race 1

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by this lightly raced 5yo, producing a new PB by a length and with a solid expectation there's more to come. -0.9 at the 800, +0.5 in the mid race, and +2.0 last 400. However note she lost 0.8 of a length last 200 in isolation. In her Moe and Moonee Valley wins previous prep she produced the best last 600 and 400 of the day, and in her Flemington 2nd January produced a last 400 of +4.2. That strongly suggests that with a conditioning elevation +2 range is possible this time in. That says more wins ahead with ordinary luck and health.

    Subsequently: Winner Listed Moonee Valley 07/09

    Evaporate
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 24, 2024

    The 3 length winner in Race 3

    -4.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 37th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this colt fits the profile of an emerging stayer, and has similarities to APULIA who the stable won the Cox Plate Day Vase with before beaten a nose in the VRC Derby to RIFF ROCKET. Settled 5.4 lengths from the lead going -11.6 at the 800, before -1.1 in the mid race. The context is two fold: This was the 2nd biggest squeeze of the day and he did so through what was clearly the softest part of the track. Tapered from there going -3.8, and despite winning easily, lost a length last 200 metres. That says he's trending upwards and with more to come conditioning and talent wise as an improving stayer.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 07/09

    Storm Boy
    Gold Coast
    Jan 13, 2024

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Didn't just justify his favourite tag in the Magic Millions Grand Final, but stamped himself as the dominant 2yo of the crop to date, and there looks more to come! +3.7 at the 800 was excellent early speed, but then endured a 5.3 length slowdown in the mid race going -1.6. Rebounded hard last 400 with +2.5, including last bit best bit +1.9 last 200 which was the 7th best of the day. +3 to +4 range is a very realistic aim towards his next Grand Final in the Golden Slipper meaning we have a genuine talent.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 02/03. Golden Slipper 3rd, Sires Produce 4th. First up winner Rosehill 31/08

    Growing Empire
    Morphettville
    Apr 27, 2024

    The 4.5 length winner of Race 2

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    Another modest overall IVR time, (from -2.9 and -3.4 in his other two starts) but this is an evolving colt worthy of documenting. At Moonee Valley his early speed was blistering producing +3.8 first 400 metres which is seriously fast. Here led at "just" +0.8, before a savage slowdown going just -8.9 from the 800 to 400. That he was able to pick up with an excellent +3.0 last 400 with last bit best bit +1.6 last 200 is a great sign of more to come, as it's effectively "jamming a foot on the brake" and stopping any chance of a good IVR time.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Winner 1st up Caulfield 31/08

    Another Wil
    Rosehill
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 9

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Four runs this prep for four appearances in Sizzlers, and off this best of the day dynamic win extending his PB from +0.6, we still don't know his ceiling! -0.1 at the 800, +1.6 in the mid race and +3.7 last 400. This sets him up to run to his best in this week's Doncaster, and of note his only two starts on heavy ground saw a "swimmers" wet track indicator of +12.8 and +13.8 albeit in Werribee and Moe maidens first two starts. Typically would need another 1.5 to 2.5 lengths improvement to win the big Randwick mile, and there's nothing to say he couldn't elevate to that level.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Doncaster and spelled. First up winner Caulfield 31/08

    Autumn Glow
    Rosehill
    Aug 17, 2024

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 1

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    This was a serious debut win and the hype from it is real! A just turned 3yo filly to produce a 2nd best of the day performance is very rare, and particularly for a first starter. -1.8 at the 800 sitting 3.3 lengths from the lead. Actually lost 0.5 of a length in the mid race, before producing an excellent turn of foot going -0.6 last 400. The micro-splits were what really impressed. -1.7 from the 400 to 200, before +1.0 last 200. Raw time adjusted up 5.6 lengths allowing for the soft track early in the day. She's heading one way: upwards!

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 31/08

    Storm Boy
    Randwick
    Mar 2, 2024

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 4

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Given the perfect Golden Slipper lead in with basically a "barrier trial" set up at the deep odds on. Cruised in front at -6.2 lengths below benchmark at the 800, -0.4 in the mid race and +2.3 last 400 when untroubled throughout. Last 200 in isolation was +2.7. His PB to date was the Magic Millions win was +1.8 which remains the best of the crop to date. Everything is on target for his next Grand Final.

    Subsequently: 3rd Golden Slipper, 4th Sires Produce and spelled. First up winner Rosehill 31/08

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.