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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Sandown
May 31
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Chinqui
    Mornington
    Apr 19, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 5

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Good rebound from a - probable - flat run at Caulfield 22/02, after a clear career best of +0.3 Caulfield Heath 13 days earlier. Here off an 8 week freshen stalked the leader going -0.7 at the 800, before +2.9 in the mid race and +5.9 last 400. Lost 1.8 lengths last 200 in isolation. 4th best last 800, but just the 15th best last 200 also showed the late gas out. He's a lightly raced 4yo in just his 2nd prep and should continue to evolve. 

    Subsequently: 3rd Sandown and Caulfield 24/05 and 31/05 before winning Sandown 14/06

    War Machine
    Doomben
    May 24, 2025

    The 2.6 length winner of Race 9

    +2.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Came here as favourite off the back of his best of the day win Caulfield when +0.5 lengths above benchmark, and left as Stradbroke favourite off this clear new PB and dominant win. +4.2 lengths above benchmark was excellent early speed stalking the leaders, before -2.4 and -0.6 last 2 sections. That meant a 6.6 length mid race slowdown, so there's every chance there's more to come. He has tactical versatility and is entitled to be treated with great respect into his Grand Final.

    Subsequently: Winner Stradbroke 14/06

    War Machine
    Mornington
    Apr 19, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Just missed after finding traffic from the dread barrier 1 "coffin" 3 back the fence, but produced an outstanding finish which said he's back on track, after ending his last prep well beaten listed with a poor recovery. -1.7 at the 800, before +0.2 in the mid race and a booming +12.1 last 400. This was - unsurprisingly! - the best last 400 and 200 of the day. His all time best is +1.1 both at Cranbourne when bolting in March 2023 and Randwick October when 3rd at Group 3 level. Perhaps the Warrnambool Wangoom from here? At this stage he's unknown in the wet.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 10/05, winner Doomben 24/04, winner Stradbroke 14/06

    War Machine
    Caulfield
    May 10, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 8

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo on the rise who matched his Mornington IVR figure when narrowly beaten first up after a phenomenal best last 400 and 200 of the day sprint, but has made genuine progression given the differing race shape. -0.1 at the 800 had him 3.6 lengths from the lead, before +3.9 from the 800 to 400. That meant a "fast and faster" set up, before a -1.5 last 400 close. The micro splits give us good confidence there's more to come given he went +1.0 from the 400 to 200, before just -2.4 last 400. That's a 3.4 length drop off screaming conditioning and overall performance elevations are likely.

    Subsequently: Winner Doomben 24/05 Winner Stradbroke 14/06

    Deepfloat Diva
    Moonee Valley
    Apr 26, 2025

    The 0.8 length 3rd in Race 4

    -1.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Very good 2nd up progression from -4.6 at Morphettville a fortnight earlier, and on wet ground which he only "just" handles. -1.8 at the 800 settling 3rd line, before a big 6.4 length slowdown on the worst part of the track with -8.2. Last 400 an excellent -0.1 with the context of the performance that 2nd best last 800 of the day, and the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. We won at the SA Parks track with those splits 14/09 going benchmark, and backed it up a fortnight later over 1100 with a PB of +1.2. At this time of year if he can run to that from here it's a likely winning figure.

    Subsequently: 2nd Morphettville Parks 17/05 then winner Morphettville Parks 31/05

    Winning Proposal
    Gosford
    May 10, 2025

    The one length 3rd in race 6

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced filly first start for the Baker stable with a previous PB of -1.7 Randwick 15/02, so has sailed past that despite an awkward jump, and given this is just BM78 level she can be winning shortly. -4.5 and -2.9 first two sections, before a very strong +2.8 last 400 which was the 2nd best of the day. However the 200 breakdowns showed she lost 2 lengths late which strongly suggests - to go with pre-race market softness - that there's good conditioning to come going forward. In similar should be very hard to beat next start.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 24/05 before winner Rosehill 14/06 at $10

    Zaszou
    Flemington
    Mar 29, 2025

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 1

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Strong return with a "better further" profile beating her previous PB by 0.5 of a length, and suffered a significant slowdown from the 400 to 200 smothering the potential for more. -2.9 at the 800 stalking the lead pack, +1.8 in the mid race so a solid 4.7 length squeeze, before -2.1 last 400. However lost 2 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a 3.3 last 200 rebound albeit against the fence in the fastest part of the track. This is only her 2nd prep with Phil Stokes and last time in closed with last 400s between +6.8 and +8.0. That's going to be an asset going forward. Perhaps Bendigo standalone day 1300 or 1400 from here???

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 12/04 Group 2 then winner Eagle Farm Listed 07/06

    Captain Electric
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 10, 2024

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Just turned 4yo who won a 2400 at Caulfield 27/07 producing -4.8 lengths below benchmark on very wet ground. Here in his 4th run for the prep and new stable, he's significantly extended his PB (from just -4.3) back in trip in an unlucky run where he suffered a sharp slowdown of 1.6 lengths in the slowest part of the track between the 600 to 400. Overall he was going -5.8 at the 800, -2.8 in the mid race, before +2.5 last 400 and all of that was just over the last 200. This excellent close was also shown via the 7th best last 400 and 5th best last 200 of the day at the end of 2040 metres. This is just BM70 and he can win again in similar.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 28/08 and spelled. Resumed Mornington winner 09/06

    Stylish
    Flemington
    Jan 11, 2025

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 3

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo mare who returned from a spell with a solid best of day win at Bendigo when -0.9 lengths below benchmark, before a poor run on very wet ground Caulfield. Then after a very slow tempo 3rd at the Heath track, has elevated from -7.0 to -2.6, but again is "crying out" for a race with more pressure in it. -11.6 at the 800, -2.3 in the mid race, before +4.4 last 400 chasing the winner. Is clearly in good order and crying out for a faster race, and is ready to go one better in a similar benchmark race. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced 07/02 and spelled. Resumed winner Bendigo 14/05

    Transatlantic
    Doomben
    May 24, 2025

    The 3.8 length 5th in Race 9

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but one that says Stradbroke Grand Final peak to come and at big odds. Improved a length from Rockhampton first up going +1.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before -0.6 and -3.3 last two sections. Was planted wide throughout, and lost 1.6 lengths last 200 in isolation strongly suggesting a conditioning elevation from here. Tony Gollan trained and won twice at Eagle Farm over summer at 1400 with a best of +2.9 in his first prep as a gelding. That figure would see him very competitive in the Group 1 target.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 07/06

    Joliestar
    Flemington
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Won her target Newmarket and produced a run equalling her PB (+2.7 to be accurate) first up last prep Randwick 24/08. What impressed was she did it off a much faster tempo (-1.1 v -8.5) before +0.5 mid race and +4.9 last 400. The significance here is she's taken the next step showing she can sprint hard off a good rather than only soft tempo, which was previously her "A game". This says that typical of master trainer Waller, she's an evolving mare who should still have her best in front of her. She'll need it to take a TJ Smith, but is trending the right way from here. Or will he try her in an All Aged at 1400???

    Subsequently: Unplaced TJ Smith, before 2nd All Aged Stakes Randwick 19/04. Then winner Eagle Farm Kingsford Smith 07/06

    In Flight
    Doomben
    May 17, 2025

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 7

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Ultra consistent mare, whose 3 IVR figures this time in has been -0.5, -0.1 and here -0.4 finding the wettest conditions yet. -1.8 at the 800 had her 3rd line, before -7.0 and -5.7 in the last two sections on the inferior part of the track with last bit best bit improving from the 13th best last 400 of the day to the 7th best last 200. This was the 9th time in 16 starts that she's produced a top 3 last 800 of the meeting showing her ability to sustain closing speed. Deserves obvious ongoing respect into this carnival.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 07/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.