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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield Blue Diamond Day
February 21
Posted 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Weeping Woman
    Rosehill
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    Benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by the 5yo mare with an already solid winning strike rate, with the data strongly suggesting the best is still ahead. Just -5.3 at the 800 sharing the lead at a soft tempo, before +0.9 in the mid race and +5.8 last 400. This was the 3rd best of the day and the 2nd best of her 14 start career. This is a new level from -0.8 and a new first up best from -1.8. Can produce and cope with more early speed, and given this is just BM78 level, can continue through her grades into the summer. 

    Subsequently: Winner Kembla 15/11 Winner Randwick 13/12. Winner Randwick 14/02

    Playin'it Sweet
    Ascot
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 8

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Fourth run for her 2nd prep, but keeps raising the bar going from +0.2 PB two starts earlier winning here over 1200. In addition it was "first time forward" with her early speed of -1.2 at the 800 on pace, and clearly the fastest she's gone first section this time in. -2.4 in the mid race meant a small slowdown, before +6.2 last 400. That ability to relax and quicken to go with her tenacity for the fight which 5 wins from 8 starts confirm, says stepping to the mile should be in her scope.

    Subsequently: 2nd January 1 Ascot. 2nd January 17th Ascot. Winner WA Breeders Listed Bunbury Feb 1. Winner Listed Ascot Feb 15

    Paradise city
    Flemington
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 0.8 length 2nd in race 10

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Super elevation from just -4.7 on the quirky Caulfield Heath track, and a new PB from -1.0 from her 2nd career start Bendigo 2023. At the 800 was midfield going -0.7 spotting the leader/winner 5.5 lengths. +3.2 in the mid race before -0.7 last 400. Did lose a length over the last 200 as the chase told only 2nd up, but note ran the best last 1200 and 1000 of the day. Has tactical versatility winning twice as a leader, but has three times ran a closing 400 between +7.5 and +9.1. Caulfield BM78 staying at 1400 on January 31 from here???

    Subsequently: Winner Pakenham 23/01 and winner Flemington 14/02

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 8

    +4.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    The rising superstar of Australian racing who continued her unbeaten streak in contrasting conditions in this Golden Eagle to her Epsom win when +4.9 lengths above benchmark on a good track. Here in soft conditions on the "quirky" (for this track) 1500 distance, found a "fast and legless" race shape, going +8.1 lengths above benchmark yet sitting 3rd line. -5.8 and -8.7 last two sections, but holding her line over the last two x 200 splits. She's confirmed her "swimmer" tag with a wet track indicator of +12.1 and unlike first up (+13.2) which was just 1100, did so into a middle distance range.

    Subsequently: Winner first up Randwick 14/02

    Sixties
    Rosehill
    Jan 31, 2026

    The 1.6 length winner of Race 7

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: This was a big statement from a colt going places! First up 2nd prep with a previous PB of +1.1 lengths above benchmark set when winning a Group 3 here over 1400 last September at his 5th career start. To return smashing that says he's got elite stakes race potential. Relaxed going -3.6 at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead. +0.2 in the mid race, before a +5.8 last 400 "explosion" racing away. Also produced the "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day showing he turned up fit despite 126 days away. Trainer has indicated Australian Guineas is the target. Deserves great respect!

    Subsequently: Winner CS Hayes Flemington 14/02

    Tentryis
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 6

    +4.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Turned up set for the Coolmore Grand Final with +0.8 here when 3rd Turnbull Stakes day 04/10 and -0.1 Caulfield Cup day when exploding with the 5th best last 400 of the day, and has left with the tag of the most promising sprinter in Australia. Found a high pressure race shape where his benchmark speed at the 800 had him 3 lengths from the lead, before +2.8 in the mid race and +5.7 last 400. However note such was the heat up front, that he actually tapered late losing 1.4 lengths last 200 in isolation. This is also seen via the 3rd best last 800, but the 30th best last 200 of the day.

    Subsequently: First up winner Lightning Stakes 14/02

    Tentyris
    Caulfield
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 4

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his first up +0.8 at Flemington, and while he dipped IVR wise, note he's gone from the 13th to the 10th ranked on the day on much softer track, and was very strong late when asked. -4.9 at the 800, before +0.8 in the mid race and +4.2 last 400, with last bit best bit +3.0 last 200 in isolation. He's clearly set to peak in the Coolmore, and showed in his Randwick win 08/03 and ability to produce and sustain an excellent late close. On that occasion his combined last two splits were +11.2 and he's a stronger colt now. Likely to be very competitive in the Group 1 grand final. 

    Subsequently: Winner Coolmore 01/11. First up winner Lightning 14/02

    Green Fly
    Randwick
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 1.2 length 4th in Race 8

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    With the obvious caveat that he's a 7yo with a few issues and lover of wet tracks, but on clean ground he couldn't have returned any better. -6.1 at the 800 sitting midfield, before +2.7 in the mid race and +3.4 last 400 showing the sustained nature of the close. This was also seen via the 6th best last 800 and the best last 600 of the day. He produced +0.5 first up last prep but on his preferred slow going winning at Rosehill, and when right is very consistent in the benchmark range. If he stays healthy/sound he should be able to find a win very soon this time in. 

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 14/02 at $5

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Sep 20, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    +4.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Stunning return from this 5yo mare who's already a 3 time Group 1 winner, smashing not only her previous first up PB of +2.7, but her all time PB of +3.2 set when 2nd to JIMMYSSTAR in the All Aged here April. -3.9 at the 800, before +3.8 in the mid race and +6.6 last 400. A combined +10.4 last 800 off a good speed is serious high quality heat. Her challenge into an Everest is still how she could go in a brutal tempo sprint which to date has been her Kryptonite and is the asset of Hong Kong star KA YING RISING. Most years this figure would be good enough. It's likely to be well short this year so improvement is still required. 

    REPOST: First up winner again Randwick 14/02

    Savvy Hallie
    Gold Coast
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 2.5 length 4th in Race 9

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Missed the place at single figure odds, but the run should not be underestimated producing a new PB from -1.1 lengths below benchmark when 2nd to 2yo filly TEMPTED Randwick 12/04. Importantly she showed excellent sustained speed being above benchmark in each of the 3 sections albeit on firm ground. +1.1 lengths above benchmark at the 800, +0.5 in the mid race and +0.5 last 400. Clearly that said she turned up pretty fit - a logical assumption with the big $ on offer - so she should be able to hold it 2nd up. Looks to be a player in early season 3yo stakes races in Sydney.

    Subsequently: Winner Group 2 Light Fingers Randwick 14/02

    Berkeley Square
    Ballarat
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 9

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Obviously "job done" in winning his local Cup for the 2nd consecutive year, but it was a dominant clear best of the day performance. -3.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800, but 8.4 lengths from leaders who were (ridiculously!) overdoing it. Produced a big 11.6 length squeeze in the best part of the track from the 800 to 400 going +7.8, before -0.7 last 400. He's matched his figure from last year which was on firm ground. Whether there's another run or a spell (more likely) from here is an unknown, but he's the ideal "just below elite" stayer who's rarely far away.

    Subsequently: Freshened and unplaced Flemington 17/01 then 3rd Caulfield 07/02 before winning Flemington 14/02

    Cafe Millenium
    Caulfield
    Jan 24, 2026

    The 1.2 length 4th in Race 9

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return off a 91 day short spell and is now ready to match his +1.6 when winning at Flemington 13/09. Settled 7.7 lengths from the leader/winner REGAL ZEUS going -3.0 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before +4.2 in the mid race so a very strong 7.2 length squeeze. That saw him out with +3.5 last 400, losing 1.5 length over the last 200 in isolation. He's always been best at big tracks be it Randwick when Sydney based or Flemington, so a return to that track looks ideal from here. 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 14/02

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.