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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
30th May
NOW POSTED with free around the grounds word doc email bonus sent at 11am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Providence
    Randwick
    Apr 18, 2026

    The 0.9 length 2nd in Race 5

    -3.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 47th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this was a booming run, and one which says "take notice" on his QLD Derby campaign. -11.3 at the 800 had him effectively in a non-winning position when 11 lengths from the lead, before +2.9 from the 800 to 400. That's a booming 14.2 length squeeze, and he sustained it home with +6.7 last 400. His Ground Made Up figure was an excellent 10 lengths. His PB to date it -2.6 when 2nd to VRC Derby winner OBSERVER in his lead in at Moonee Valley, and there he crushed the line with the best last 200 of Cox Plate day at the end of 2040 metres. Stand by!

    Subsequently: 3rd Doomben 16/05 then winner Queensland Derby 30/05

    Sounds Unusual
    Wyong
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 2 length 2nd in Race 4

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 49th on the day

    Summary

     A very low IVR figure to include after disappointing the market as favourite, but he was just 3rd up and had the key negative of going from a fast mile to a slow middle distance (2100 metres) race shape. At the 800 was going -7.4 lengths below benchmark compared to -2.4 at Randwick a fortnight earlier. Closed with benchmark and +1.1 last two sections and the 7.4 length squeeze from the 800 to 400 took away his capacity to produce a further turn of foot. His rating means he can drop back to BM78 if asked and now has a grounding to win similar.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick 24/01 and spelled. 3rd up Rosehill winner 30/05

    Silver Wedding
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 5

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced mare who at start 10 found for the first time in her career and race of pressure on a firm track and exploded! +2.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 but 4.4 from the flying leaders. +3.1 in the mid race and +2.7 last 400 masked a 2.6 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, before a 2.2 length hard rebound last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 42nd best last 600, but the 15th best last 200 of the day at the end of 1400 metres and a raw time of +8.2 which is blistering. Won his previous start Doomben 3 weeks earlier with just -4.9 in a 400 dash home race shape, but this states there's more to come. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Eagle Farm 03/01 then unplaced in NZ. First up winner Eagle Farm 30/05

    Simurgh
    Caulfield
    May 9, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 2

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Import 2nd up 2nd local run and this dominant performance is most unlikely to be his only win this time in. Came off just -5.1 lengths below benchmark at Pakenham when 2nd, but with a booming +6.8 last 400 close. This race shape was a complete inverse set up and he thrived. +1.3 at the 800 had him 4 lengths from the lead in a fast race shape, and significantly it was a booming 18 lengths early speed improvement race to race. -1.8 in the mid race, before -5.9 last 400. Lost a length last 200 with the race won and he's trending upwards. This is just BM78 grade and we look forward to measuring his progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 30/05

    Hot and High
    Ascot
    Nov 29, 2025

    The 3 length winner of Race 5

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Unbeaten filly who made it three from three with this Listed demolition stepping from 1200 to 1400, but did it in the most pressure free set up they could hope for. Shared the lead with -9.9 at the 800, then -7.6 in the mid race. That meant the race "effectively started at the 400 when she closed with +7.2 running away, which was the 4th best last 400 of the meeting. Produced +0.4 best of the day midweek at Belmont leading in with also a +7.2 close, while at Northam on debut (-2.6 overall) her last 400 was a blistering +8.9. We look forward to measuring her progress. 

    Subsequently: Spelled. Resumed winner Ascot 09/05 and Belmont 23/05

    Duchess Zou
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Ready and set for a huge prep! 2nd up 7th career run 2nd prep, and has smashed her previous PB of -0.7 saying "next level" in the process. Sat 3wnc on the over the one bend 1200, before +4.0 in the mid race and +2.4 last 400. This included a 1.5 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, before a late 1 length rebound over the last 200. IVR figure was adjusted down 5 lengths allowing for the firm track, and note she won her only 1400 race at the end of her last campaign Flemington 19/07. Anzac Day next from here?

    Subsequently: 2nd Mornington 18/04, unplaced Bendigo 02/05 then winner Sandown 23/05

    Abounding
    Randwick
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 3.6 length 7th in Race 10

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 48th on the day

    Summary

    Good quality benchmark range QLD mare who had zero chance under this race shape, but has produced a hidden run that says beware of underestimating going forward. -11.3 at the 800 had her effectively out of play early 5 lengths from the leaders who were cruising. -3.3 in the mid race was a solid 8 length squeeze, but off "no" tempo. However +9.5 last 400 was a blistering and clear career best closing sprint. Worth considering too that her booming Doomben lead in trial win 24/02 could have left her with some flatness?

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced QLD then winner Group 3 BRC Sprint 23/05 

    Birdman
    Caulfield
    Mar 14, 2026

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 8

    +3.0 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    5yo import now in his 3rd local prep and has returned in phenomenal form this time in. First up +1.1 at Flemington over 1400 before a best of the day mile win with +3.6, and here has repeated the top ranking on the day level stepping to 1800. -5.0 at the 800 having a cruisey 2nd line run, before +2.9 in the mid race and a powerful +6.2 last 400. This also included a sharp 3.5 length dip before the home turn between the 600 and 400. Should take a power of beating in the Australian Cup from here. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Australian Cup 28/03, before 2nd Gold Coast 09/05 and winner Doomben Cup 23/05

    Pinito
    Randwick
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 6

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 20th on the day

    Summary

    4yo mare 2nd up after 259 days away, and here has won with a new PB from -0.5 set when 2nd in the QLD Oaks last June. -7.1 at the 800, before an excellent 10 length squeeze going +2.8 from the 800 to the 400. Sustained the close with +5.9 last 400, but note lost 0.8 of a length over the last 200 in isolation. Given she's improved significantly from here -2.4 resuming at Rosehill a fortnight earlier, it's no surprise there was a late conditioning taper. Easily won a Gold Coast 1800 on a genuine bog track last April, so any rain shouldn't worry her going forward. Looks set for more success this carnival. 

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced and freshened. Winner Group 3 mile Doomben 23/05

    The Next Episode
    Randwick
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 1

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    This is a quality colt! Resumed with a win at Warwick Farm when out of traffic late with -2.6 lengths below benchmark, so here has improved 1.7 lengths despite missing the start. Just -8.5 at the 800 had him 3.8 lengths from the lead. +0.7 in the mid race meant a super strong 9.2 length squeeze and he sustained it home with +2.5 last 400. The context which really impressed - even allowing for the first use of the track - was the best last 800 and 600 and 2nd best last 400 of a multiple Group 1 iconic day from a 2yo. More to come! 

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 02/05. Winner Gold Coast 23/05

    Sylph
    Gold Coast
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 2 length 3rd in Race 9

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    We wrote of her run 3 weeks earlier "Somehow" still a maiden but won't be for long!" after running 2nd to GRAFTERBURNERS at Eagle Farm with -0.9 lengths below benchmark, and while she still is after running 3rd to the same star colt in this $3million slot race, the question now could be "Is she the best maiden in Australia?!?!" -2.2 at the 800 when 5.5 lengths from the lead, +1.4 in the mid race, before +3.6 last 400. The context is the best last 800 and the 2nd best last 400 of the day. If she only holds this figure - this was her 4th run for the prep - she simply has to break through soon!

    Subsequently: Spelled. 3rd up winner Gold Coast 22/05

    Yellow Brick
    Gold Coast
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 10

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Returned from an *ambitious* placement in Sydney in the Epsom and King Charles, and with 3 trials and just 84 days between runs clearly turned up fit enough to perform near his best. Stalked the speed going -1.1 at the 800, before -0.6 in the mid race and +4.2 last bit best bit when asked over the last 400 which was the 10th best of the meeting. This is the perfect building tempo race shape to avoid flatness if on the quick back up which he will be at time of writing. This matches his Stradbroke figure when 2nd in June, and has him near his +2.0 to +2.4 of 2023 and 2024. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Magic Millions Day and Spelled. First up $1,000,000 Archer winner Rockhampton 05/05

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.