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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield Heath
8th August
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Napoleonic
    Randwick
    Jul 31, 2026

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Trial 2

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    4yo stallion who can still have his best in front of him with his current PB sitting at +1.9 lengths above benchmark when a close up 8th to multiple Group 1 winners JOLIESTAR and BEIWACHT 2nd up last prep, after +0.6 resuming at Randwick when 2nd to star sprinting filly TEMPTED. Here -4.5, -1.8 and -2.4 over the three sections, but of note he lost 3 lengths over the last 200 under a hold when passed by the high class NINJA. In addition on very wet ground he beat the winner by 5 lengths in a lead in trial 20/07. That strongly suggests he'll be turning up fit and ready to run boldly in the Missile Stakes.

    Subsequently: 2nd to fellow trial runner NINJA Missile 08/08 Randwick

    Ninja
    Eagle Farm
    Jan 3, 2026

    The 4.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Elevated from his PB first up when -0.1 lengths below benchmark at Doomben and 3rd, but this was a domination which screamed he's an emerging horse of serious promise. -1.4 at the 800 had him tagging the lead 7.5 lengths. Produced an excellent 6 length squeeze given the high pressure with +4.4 in the mid race, before +0.1 last 400 with rider Berry "shutting him down" late. First up in traffic he close with a booming +7.1 best last 600 and 400 of the day showing his turn of foot capacity. Should take obvious beating at the Gold Coast over 1400 in his target race Magic Millions Day.

    Subsequently: 2nd Magic Millions Day 17/01 then winner Rosehill 21/02. REPOST AFTER MISSILE STAKES WIN FIRST UP RANDWICK 08/08

    Ninja
    Randwick
    Jul 31, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of trial 3

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Promising lightly raced 4yo who controversially failed to win the Magic Millions 3yo on protest, but either side of that bolted in at Eagle Farm with +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day, and won at Randwick over 1400 with -0.4 lengths below benchmark. Here under race like pressure has produced work that says he'll be coming to play first up. -4.9 at the 800, before -2.6 in the mid race stalking the leaders. Closed with -0.4 last 400, but note +1.1 from the 400 to 200, before -1.5 last 200. That's perfect to really improve from fitness wise. His current best first up figure is benchmark and that look set to be eclipsed.

    Subsequently: First up Missile winner Randwick 08/08

    Melanite
    Gold Coast
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 1

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    First up and clearly wound up to win the $250,000 maiden with accompanying good market support, but this performance says they'll be more wins to come given it was top 11 on the iconic deep Magic Millions Gold Coast meeting. -3.0 at the 800, +3.0 in the mid race and +3.2 says a near perfectly efficient Ethan Brown ride albeit with a 1.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Lightly raced and this is just his 3rd run as a gelding with his first two on very wet ground. If he holds this figure a Saturday Sydney metro Midway looks an ideal progression from here.

    REPOST AFTER 3 UP WINNER RANDWICK 08/08

    Behaviour
    Caulfield
    Jul 11, 2026

    The 0.3 length 3rd in Race 2

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Blinkers went on and with some big odds market support he just missed with possibly being "stuck" in the inner lanes and facing the headwinds the difference between winning and losing. -5.0 and -5.8 first two sections showed the impact into it in the chute, before -3.1 last 400. He lost 2.1 lengths in isolation tapering late from his first "proper" run for the prep 3rd up. He won at the late July meeting in 2025 with -1.3 lengths below benchmark which he also matched here 4th up last prep January. The BM84 over 1100 in a fortnight looks ideal?

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 25/07 then winner Caulfield Heath 08/08

    Davida
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 5

    -0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Emerging mare who backed up a big odds all the way win at Cranbourne a week earlier when -0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th of their city (MV) meeting. There went +3.4 lengths above benchmark, while here +4.3 so gets an extra tick for repeating high speed. +0.9 in the mid race, before -2.0 last 400. While "falling in" she was only 3rd up after knuckling jumping on wet ground Caulfield 29/11. Won her previous start - a maiden - at Echuca 20/09 when also leading throughout. Has the "free-wheeling" style suited to this time of year on clean ground and can win again out of this BM74 grade.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 07/02 and spelled. 2nd up SA Parks winner 27/06 at $11. Twice unplaced then winner Caulfield Heath 08/08

    Changing Colours
    Flemington
    Jul 18, 2026

    The 2 length winner of Race 3

    -6.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 59th on the day

    Summary

    A very low IVR figure to include, but just 2nd up 2nd run new stable with an effortless win in a "no tempo" set up with a booming close, says more to come. Just -17.1 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 3.7 lengths from the lead, before -1.0 in the mid race and +7.5 last 400. Context was the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day at the end of the mile. Her PB sits at -0.6 with two other runs at -0.9, and that looks a modest goal from here. At this time of year, that's a likely winning figure. Back to Flemington in a fortnight at BM78 company, or Caulfield Heath BM84 over 1500 the week after?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield Heath 08/08

    Splash Back
    Flemington
    Aug 2, 2025

    The 3.1 lengths 5th in Race 7

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market as favourite, but came off two very slow tempo wins (-4.2 and -3.5) with booming closing finishes on her. Here at the 800 was going -3.6 lengths below benchmark but was 5.2 lengths from the lead showing the high pressure race shape. This -3.6 compared to -7.1 and -7.9 previous two starts so was going much faster "just to keep up". +0.1 and +2.0 last two sections, but lost 2 lengths over the last 200 in isolation as the extra exertion at the start of the race told. Be wary of writing her off from here as a hard rebound would be no surprise!

    Subsequently: 2nd Morphettville 23/08, before 5th Flemington 13/09. Winner Moonee Valley 26/09. TATTS TIARA WINNER 2026

    Carbonados
    Randwick
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 3

    -3.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Well backed for his return, and while it got "scary" in severe traffic up the straight until Nash Rawiller forced his way out, the data says the stable have effectively got a "fast barrier trial" race shape for his return, which is ideal to avoid any flatness from here. -10.9 at the 800 stalking a very soft tempo, before -3.6 and +4.0 last 400 sections. Only clear 180 metres out, so last bit best bit +3.7 last 200 in isolation running away. 3rd best last 600, best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 of the day. Is comfortably a benchmark to +1.1 range 1200-1400 type, and that's lead for summer racing.

    REPOST AFTER 2ND UP WINNER ROSEHILL 01/08

    Just Like Gaby
    Pakenham
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 2.1 length 7th in Race 4

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 39th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this could well be a case of "losing the battle to win the war" after they've changed tactics in going back, overdid it having her with too much to do too late, but crushed the line with the 2nd best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. -5.0 at the 800 was 5 lengths from the lead after just 200 metres, before -0.5 in the mid race. Last 400 was +6.1, with the last 200 in isolation +4.1 showing the "passive" tactics were completely overdone. This was clearly the best last 400 and 200 close of her career, and relaxing like this says back to 1100 or 1200 looks ideal with a -0.2 PB to date a modest expectation. 

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Flemington 01/08

    Touchdown
    Caulfield Heath
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner in Race 1

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    3 starts on the quirky Heath track for three wins, going -1.5 and -3.0 in his other two, but here in the small field has won with a bludge. -2.6 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +2.7 lengths above benchmark in the mid race which was a solid 5.3 length squeeze. Closed with +0.3 losing a length last 200 with the race well won. This is just BM70 company as he works through the grades and clearly hasn't been fully tested here. No reason he can't win again placed conservatively up to 2000 metre range. 

    Subsequently: 4th Caulfield 24/01 and spelled. 2nd up winner Flemington 01/08

    Sass Appeal
    Flemington
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 5

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Wow! 3yo filly having her 5th run in her first prep, and after two "walk/dash home" race shapes (-2.6 and -2.1 IVR figures) also here at 1400, has obliterated her PB and announced herself as a genuine Group 1 contender in time. +0.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before +4.1 in the mid race and +2.0 last 400. Did lose a length over the last 200 with the race won after the big exertion from the 800 to 400 told. Whether she has another run or not is an unknown, but she's a genuinely exciting spring prospect from here.

    Spelled. First up winner Flemington 01/08

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.