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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Moonee Valley
October 25
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Duke De Sessa
    Caulfield
    Aug 31, 2024

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 4

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Import whose looking for his first local win, but the first 4 runs were in Group 1 races, while this time in he's slowly built in handicaps, coming off a luckless Moonee Valley run, and her producing a new local PB. +2.8 at the 800 and +2.0 in the mid race was good, sustained speed. Last 400 was -1.1 but that was all over the last 200 in isolation showing the late conditioning gas out. Looks set to run in the +1 range from here, and that should be very competitive anywhere away from Group 1 racing.

    Subsequently: 4th Group 1 Underwood 21/09 Caulfield, 4th Group 1 Turnbull Flemington 05/10 then winner Caulfield Cup!

    Too Darn Lizzie
    Gold Coast
    Jan 13, 2024

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 2

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Was clearly wound up for her debut given the big prizemoney on offer, but this was an excellent performance just below benchmark and top 11 on the 11 race Magic Millions card. -0.1 at the 800, before -2.1 in the mid race so the negative of a slowdown, before letting down with +3.3 last 400 and last bit best bit +2.0 last 200 in isolation. 6th best last 600 and 400 and the 4th best last 200 of the day in isolation. For context this has her 5th on 2yo performances this crop, so she deserves immediate respect.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick Group 3 March 9, before unplaced 13/04 and spelled. Randwick 08/09, First up Listed Caulfield 3rd Sep 21, before winner Caulfield 19/10

    Far Too Easy
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 16, 2023

    The 4.4 length winner of Race 9

    -2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Bolted in off a 63 day freshen justifying his odds on price, and while it was a modest IVR figure, the badly deteriorating track and the typically solid mid race equates to expecting him to run to his usual +1 to +1.5 profile going forward. -3.7 at the 800, before +3.4 in the mid race. Last 400 was +0.8, but that was all from the 400 to 200 with the race won. Strong wet track indicator of +6.5 which again is typical for him should we get a wet summer this region.

    Subsequently: 4th Magic Millions day 13/01 and spelled. First up 4th Eagle Farm 14/09 then winner $2,000,000 Kosciusko Randwick 19/10

    Overpass
    Ascot
    Dec 2, 2023

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 9

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Won this Group 1 at the same track/distance as the Quokka in April which was +3.6 but off a lead speed of +4.3. Here cruised in front going -2.7 so 7 lengths slower first 400 metres! +2.2 mid race and +3.6 last 400 made it effectively impossible for him to be caught. No reason he can't run a strong 1400 if staying here for the Gold Rush in a fortnight. 

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up winner Quokka 20/04. Spelled and first up winner Sydney Stakes Randwick 19/10

    Bella Nipotina
    Randwick
    Sep 7, 2024

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +2.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Remarkable mare who "fronted up again" off a 10 week freshen since winning the Tatts Tiara Eagle Farm June. -4.1 at the 800 settling 3rd line, +3.6 in the mid race, before +7.6 last 400 in just failing. Best last 800 and 600 of the day, and the 3rd best last 200 also showed the sustained chase. This is bang in line with her usual 1000 metre profile on turning tracks, and she's best in the 1200/1300 range.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick 05/10 then winner The Everest 19/10

    Ostraka
    Randwick
    Oct 5, 2024

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 10

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his first up Rosehill win 14/09, and while he's improved from -0.1 to +1.5, we confidently call there's more to come! Just -7.2 at the 800 stalking the lead, before "barely moving" going -2.8 in the mid race. It was all about the close and he's run +6.2 last 400 with +4.2 of that the last 200 in isolation. He's now rock hard fit and producing speed if required from here will be of no concern and as such can win again without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 19/10

    Ceowulf
    Randwick
    Oct 5, 2024

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    +2.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Quality 4yo who won his first Group 1 in the Epsom and there could be more to come. -3.7 at the 800 when 6.8 lengths from the lead, +1.0 in the mid race and +6.3 last 400. His close included the best last 1200 of the day and the 15th best last 400 at the end of 1600 metres. Note in his 2000 lead in where we stamped him as a major Epsom chance his last 2 sections were a booming +5.9 and +9.2. That showcases his talents and he should remain very competitive whether staying in Sydney or heading south.

    Subsequently: Winner King Charles Randwick 19/10

    Estriella
    Flemington
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 7

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Three starts this prep for three appearances in Sizzlers, and we're upgrading from "dynamic" to "rising star!" +1.2 at the 800, before +3.2 in the mid race, and she sustained it home with +3.2 last 400, so excellent sustained speed and above benchmark in each section. Given the ease of the win, it's highly likely there's still more to come. Anything +3 in a race like the Sangster would take a power of beating, and that looks comfortably in her scope.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Group 1 Sangster 27/04 and spelled. Resumed 4th Moonee Valley 07/09 and 7th Moonee Valley 27/09 before winner Caulfield 19/10

    Niance
    Flemington
    May 18, 2024

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 3

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced mare with genuine potential who "busted the clock" at Sandown 27/03 when +1.5 lengths above benchmark over 1200 metres 2nd local start/2nd up ex-NZ. That saw her start deep odds on here Anzac Day, but bombed the start early and effectively was out of play. Here the data strongly suggests that she led throughout "with a bludge". Just -4.1 at the 800 and -5.0 mid race, compared to her +3.4 and +2.0 first two sections two starts earlier. Last 400 was -0.5, and a modest wet track indicator on the soft ground of +2.3. Probably better around a bend/on firmer ground, but either way her peak says there's more to come.

    Subsequently: Spelled and resumed winner Listed Level Caulfield 19/10

    Lekvarte
    Rosehill
    Sep 28, 2024

    The 3.1 length 4th in Race 7

    -1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    Underrated 6yo mare who's returned off a short (ish) 91 day spell with the perfect run to bring her A-game from here. -8.9 at the 800, before -0.9 in the mid race so a solid 8 length squeeze. Sustained it home with +3.8 last 400, but peaked on her run losing 0.8 length last 200. This was also seen via the 10th best last 600 of the day, but just the 22nd best last 200. Last prep her two best performances were +0.7 and +1.3 winning Randwick and Gosford Group 3s. Looks set for that level again from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 19/10

    Ducasse
    Randwick
    Apr 6, 2024

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 3

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 22nd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a Warwick Farm midweek win 07/02 when -0.1 lengths below benchmark. Was plain in his subsequent run, but then strong in the Randwick Guineas when +1.6 lengths above benchmark and a close up 7th, before finding traffic and -2.4 in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000. Here back to the mile was very strong, and the data revealed hidden merit from a slowdown. +0.1 at the 800, before -2.2 in the mid race and -3.6 last 400. Lost 2.4 lengths from the 600 to 200, before a 2.3 length rebound when asked last 200. That says he's coping with racing, and if heading to QLD would be very dangerous.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Eagle Farm and spelled. 3 unplaced lead-in runs before Randwick winner Big Dance wildcard 19/10

    Tavi Time
    Rosehill
    Sep 28, 2024

    The 4.4 length 6th in Race 6

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 49th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo of talent who resumed here with a "hidden" run that said he deserves great respect going forward. Just -10.8 at the 800 which was the slowest early speed of his career to date, but then in going +0.8 from the 800 to 400 he's also produced the 2nd best squeeze to date. Sustained it home with +4.6 last 400, and his finish was also seen via the 6th best last 600 and 200 of the day. Has a PB of +0.5 winning at Newcastle on their standalone day November which he backed up bolting in the Mudgee Cup. There's some big $ non-stakes races this spring and he looks set for them.

    Subsequently: Winner Warwick Farm 16/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.