Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington tips, assessed prices, speed maps and detailed race overviews
November 7
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Lazzura
    Randwick
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 8

    +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    We stamped her four weeks earlier with this race in mind when +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th of the day 2nd up, and here she's not only gone on with it, but thrived with significantly stronger tempo. +3.3 and +1.7 first two sections going forward to suit the track conditions, meaning 11 lengths faster first 1000 metres race to race! Entitled to drop away from there but the -1.3 was still sound. Was only 3rd up here chasing her all time best of +3.0 to +3.9, and going back to her usual pattern around 3 lengths from the lead can see her get there from here. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/11

    Point Barrow
    Caulfield
    Sep 19, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving 4yo mare who should still have her best in front of her noting she started favourite in the Oakleigh Plate February when 5th in an on-pace race. This conversely was the perfect race shape with Mark Zahra also being the first to take advantage of the A1 lanes. -2.5 at the 800 was 4.2 lengths from the lead, before closing with +3.1 and +3.8 last 2 sections typical of her capacity to produce and sustain an 800 metre sprint which in this case was the 5th best of the day. Looks a key player in high quality local sprints this carnival. 

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 10/10 Winner Champions Sprint Flemington 07/11

    Probability Theory
    Randwick
    Oct 6, 2026

    The 1.1 length winner of trial 3

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th of the session

    Summary

    Now 4yo mare set to go to the races and go close to winning at midweek level off now two very good trials around stakes winners. -4.0 ranked 6th of the session at Beaumont 23/09 when 2nd to BRUDENELL, then here over 1050 metres beat WHINCHAT when 4th best of this session and "humming" home. -11.1 at the 800 sharing the lead before -6.4 and +2.7 which was the 4th best last 400 of the morning. The last 4 x 200 micro-splits were -2.3, -6.1, +0.2 and +2.5 meaning a significant slowdown from the 600 to 400. Won first and 2nd up last time in with -0.7 and -0.4 and beating that level would be no surprise.

    Subsequently: 5th Warwick Farm 21/10 then winner Rosehill 07/11 at $11

    Pinhole
    Rosehill
    Sep 26, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 4

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Had the perfect run in transit before winning by a nose, but given he was $12 and 2nd up over 1900 metres with a "better further" profile, it could well have been a "bonus win" on the way through. +0.5 at the 800 but 7 lengths from the lead in the high pressure race shape, before +1.1 and +0.6 over the 3 sections. He's only had one local prep with a PB of +0.5 winning at Kenso in June when also thriving in fast tempo over 2400, before 2nd in the Stayers Cup here on soft ground. Highly likely to get a easier set up next as he goes up in trip. The St Leger at Randwick or a trip south for the Herbert Power next???

    Subsequently: Winner Herbert Power 10/10. Unplaced MV Cup Flemington 24/10 then winner Queen Elizabeth 07/11

    Superfabulistic
    Randwick
    Sep 25, 2026

    The 8.2 length winner of trial 2

    -10.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st of the session

    Summary

    A "nothing" IVR time, but in her 3rd trial and it was all about the close at the end of 1200 metres and it was super sharp. Led cruising around with -15.3 and -8.9 in the first two sections. The last 3 x 200 splits were -3.6, -3.2 but then a blistering 5.4 length turn of foot closing with +2.2. This included the 15th best last 400 and 200 of the day and there were 6 trials at 1045 metres or shorter. This gives her the foundation to "turn up" when resuming, close to at least her -2.5 level when 2nd up last time in. Went on to a PB of +0.4 lengths above benchmark best of the midweek card Warwick Farm 06/05. We look forward to her return!

    Subsequently: Twice placed in Sydney then Flemington winner 07/11

    Hazardous
    Wangaratta
    Oct 7, 2026

    The 6 length winner of trial 11

    -5.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd of the morning

    Summary

    Unraced runner and is set to win on debut if she gets it right having been slowly away in two jump outs prior to this when showing talent in both. 2nd best of a 13 trial session, and did it effortlessly. -5.9 at the 800, before -10.9 in the slowest part of the track from the 800 to 400. Closed with -0.7 including last bit best bit +1.1 last 200 in isolation. Despite being under a big hold with a significant margin, still put down the 5th best last 400 and 4th best last 200 of the morning.

    Subsequently: Winner Wodonga 10/10. Winner Albury 06/11

    Autumn Glow
    Rosehill
    Aug 17, 2024

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 1

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    This was a serious debut win and the hype from it is real! A just turned 3yo filly to produce a 2nd best of the day performance is very rare, and particularly for a first starter. -1.8 at the 800 sitting 3.3 lengths from the lead. Actually lost 0.5 of a length in the mid race, before producing an excellent turn of foot going -0.6 last 400. The micro-splits were what really impressed. -1.7 from the 400 to 200, before +1.0 last 200. Raw time adjusted up 5.6 lengths allowing for the soft track early in the day. She's heading one way: upwards!

    Subsequently: Winner Up and Coming Rosehill 31/08. Winner Tea Rose Randwick 21/09

    Rey Magnerio
    Flemington
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 1.5 length 4th in Race 5

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Improved from -1.5 first up at Caulfield and in a challenging race shape where leader MAZU was "off and gone" creating high heat. -6.2 at the 800 had him 8 lengths from the front in a non-winning position, but closing with +0.2 and +1.6 was an excellent sustained chase. A 6.4 length mid race squeeze is at the outer end of his capacity, and sets him up to be fully fit 3rd up. They may go back to the 1000 Oaks Day again before his WA return, but either way he's set to run to his consistent +1.7 to +2.6 range best (winning the 1400 Gold Rush) from here ongoing.

    Subsequently: Winner Oaks Day Flemington 04/11

    Proxima Dea
    Randwick
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 7

    -1.1 length above benchmark ranked 22nd on the day

    Summary

    Unbeaten filly making it five from five and collecting her first Group 1 in the process. Went forward going +4.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800 in a genuine pressure race shape compared to just -10 first section in her lead in a fortnight earlier, before -2.3 and -1.4 last two sections, being shut down late with the race won. Only has to hold her level to take a power of beating in the VRC Oaks in 12 days time. Her tactical versatility looks an ongoing weapon for her.

    Subsequently: VRC Oaks winner 

    Nobler
    Gosford
    May 9, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 5

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a fortnight earlier despite just -2.8 lengths below benchmark given he came from a near non-winning position, and crushed the line with the 3rd best last 400 and best last 200 of the day. Here the race shape was significantly different and he thrived on it. -1.8 at the 800 was 11.5 lengths faster first section race to race, before +2.1 in the mid race and -0.1 last 400. This gives him both the speed and the "miles in legs" base, to step up in trip. This is just BM72 level and he's produced an open handicap performance. Can work through the grades and continue winning without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06. Spelled then 2nd up winner Oaks Day Flemington 05/11

    Stonecrest
    Randwick
    Oct 23, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of trial 5

    -5.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Unraced colt who'll be winning races off this and would be no surprise if the first is on debut when he steps out. On the soft ground a raw time of just -13.5 lengths below benchmark, but this lines up very strongly with the other 5 heats this trip (1050 metres) that included open and stakes horses. -6.6, -3.3 and -3.6 over the 3 sections, and relative to the soft ground this was race simulation as the stable like asking of their horses. He was 9th best of the trials here 06/10 over 740 metres so there's "back up" merit to his profile. 

    Subsequently: Debut winner Gosford 04/11

    You're Not The King
    Rosehill
    Sep 22, 2026

    The 1.9 length 2nd in trial 2

    -4.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Ex-QLD with just 3 starts but a solid best of -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th of the day Eagle Farm 2nd career start. Now with Bjorn Baker and is set to go to the races and run boldly. Trialled Rosehill 08/09 winning easily with -4.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th of the morning, and he was super sharp late after a slowdown. Lost 2.1 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a sharp 3.2 length late rebound. Here found "race simulation" chasing the flying MISS SCANDAL. -6.5 then +1.0 in the mid race. That 7.5 length squeeze is the come on for a big first up run! Last 400 included a 1.7 length slowdown from the 400 to 200.

    Subsequently: Winner Hawkesbury 08/10. Winner Warwick Farm 21/10. Winner Grey race Oaks Day Flemington!

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.