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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington mini-form. Tips, race overviews, speed maps and assessed prices.
June 8
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Right To Party
    Morphettville
    May 11, 2024

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 6

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced filly who just failed to win her 2nd career start, but this first up return with a new PB says the Freedman stable has her spot on - note she was specked pre-race $17 to $12 - and there's more to come with us underlining that unlike the winner she wasn't wide lane advantaged. -6.1 at the 800, -3.9 in the mid race, before +0.3 last 400. The context was it was the best last 400 and 200 of the Group 1 meeting. On Cox Plate day last spring she closed with +6.3 showing the quality of her late sprint. Won her maiden at Doomben last year, before a Listed 2nd Eagle Farm and looks suited to returning there.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 08/06

    Yellow Brick
    Sunshine Coast
    May 11, 2024

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 5

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Strong return after 210 days away behind the rock hard fit on pacer AT WITZ END, in a great sign the stable have him in good order after they had to abort his last prep 2nd up. -2.2 at the 800, before -3.9 mid race where the slowing was on the home turn scouting for better ground. Last 400 a sound -3.1, but well below his comfortable +3.2 to +4.6 range sprints on a good track when fit. His PB stands at an excellent +2.4 set here last May also over 1200, and that was on clean ground. A 2nd tier sprint up to 1400 looks ideal from here.

    Subsequently: 5th on soft ground Doomben 25/05 then winner Eagle Farm 08/06

    Princess Rhaenys
    Sunshine Coast
    May 11, 2024

    The 1.6 lengths 3rd in Race 3

    -2.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    The perfect return from this staying mare whose strike zone is in the 2000 range. -10.0 at the 800, before -7.5 mid race in a slow tempo race shape, but was solid home with the 9th best last 400 of the day close going +0.8. Was beaten a nose last winter Listed level over 2137 metres Eagle Farm in her first prep with the stable going -3.2, but earlier produced -0.2 when 2nd in a Group 3 Doomben mile. Won at Doomben 30/12 over 2000 with a solid -1.7, after a booming +7.7 last 400 Eagle Farm.  Looks dangerous going forward up in trip.

    Subsequently: 4th Doomben 25/05 before winner Eagle Farm 08/06

    Warmonger
    Morphettville
    Apr 13, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced stayer who just missed 2nd up off a non-definitive resuming run in traffic at Pakenham 21/03, and it's set him up perfectly to run very well in the SA Derby. -4.1 at the 800 had him 3.8 lengths from leader/winner AIR ASSAULT who was race fit coming off two lead in mile wins. -0.4 in the mid race before -0.8 last 400. Lost 0.6 of a length last 200 in isolation strong suggesting he peaks fitness wise from here. While his Melbourne Cup Day 1800 win was just -4.2, it was off a treacle speed of -15.8 at the 800. That he produced a booming 21.2 length best squeeze of the day, stated he had talent. Deserves great respect into his grand final. 

    Subsequently: 5th Morphettville 27/04, before 3rd SA Derby 04/05. Ten length winner Queensland Derby 01/06!

    Bigolino
    Caulfield
    May 4, 2024

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 10

    -0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    First up after 290 days away, but turned up very fit for another winter campaign as a proven mud lover. Led going -0.4 at the 800, before -1.7 in the mid race meaning a 1.3 length slowdown. Closed with +2.1 last 400 losing just 0.4 of a length last 200 despite the big break between runs. This is a new PB for him, and note his best wet track indicator figure for when the weather turns is +8.1 which is approaching "swimmer" levels. Makes his own luck and can be very hard to catch going forward.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Sandown 24/05. Winner Sandown 02/06

    I Wish I Win
    Randwick
    Oct 14, 2023

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 7

    +5.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just missed, but produced a new PB in doing so with the data revealing his "high heat" race shape for his best chance wasn't there with the leader going at benchmark early. WISH was 3rd line going -2.9 at the 800, before an excellent 8.5 length squeeze at +5.6, with +7.4 last 400. Last two sections of a combined 13.0 lengths above benchmark and that 800 split was the 2nd best on the day. Proven up the straight if going to Flemington with an outstanding +7.5 last 400 in the Lightning only start there.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Returned 3rd TJ Smith, 2nd Doomben 10,000, winner Eagle Farm Kingsford Smith 01/06

    Cigar Flick
    Rosehill
    Apr 27, 2024

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 6

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 14th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Came off a run in traffic at Stakes level Randwick on very wet ground 3 weeks earlier, down to this BM72 level and produced a new PB with more to come. -2.1 at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead, +2.6 in the mid race, before -0.7 last 400. However lost a significant 3.2 lengths from the 400 to 200 looking for a run, before rebounding by 3 lengths last 200. Last prep she produced a +6.6 and a +7.7 last 400 and both were best of the day closes on Saturday city tracks. That closing speed now fully fit should be very hard to hold out from here.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Scone then winner Rosehill 01/06 at $19

    Roll On High
    Flemington
    Nov 7, 2023

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 8

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: This is a filly on the rise! Came off -0.2 lengths below benchmark best of the night when bolting in at Pakenham 3rd career start, and here extended it by relaxing early going -4.6 at the rear of the field, -1.5 in the mid race, before a booming +5.3 last 400 which included +3.5 last 200 being the best of the day. However the sustained nature of the close is best seen via the best last 1000 of the 10 races on Melbourne Cup day. This was her 4th run in her first prep, so whether she goes again or is spelled is an unknown at time of posting, but she is a talent!

    Subsequently: Spelled. Four unplaced runs then winner $300,000 Eagle Farm Group 3 Fred Best at $21 to $16

    Just Folk
    Hawkesbury
    May 4, 2024

    The nose winner of Race 8

    +1.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him when +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day at the Bendigo stand alone meeting, and he's elevated as hoped in winning this Hawkesbury Cup. +1.0 at the 800 stalking the leaders in his usual on pace position, +3.6 in the mid race, before -0.3 last 400 just "hanging on". Airborne for his new stable that he's in his 2nd prep with, and he's a "swimmer" going forward as winter hits. Only has to hold this level to remain very hard to beat in similar.

    Subsequently: 2nd Sunshine Coast 11/05 before winner Eagle Farm 01/06

    Just Folk
    Bendigo
    Apr 13, 2024

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 9

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Solid length elevation from his first up Rosehill run and it says he's ready to add to his win tally from his first prep for the new stable last time in, and note he's a "duck" if/when the weather turns. +4.9 at the 800 was very good lead speed, -0.4 meant a 5.5 length slowdown, before +0.5 last 400. Lost 1.5 lengths last 200 so should peak fitness wise from here. Is proven in NSW so heading east to SA, north to a post carnival stakes race, or Flemington/Warrnambool from here all look good options.

    Subsequently: Winner 04/05 Hawkesbury Gold Cup, 2nd Sunshine Coast 11/05 before winner Eagle Farm 01/06.

    Broadsiding
    Randwick
    Apr 13, 2024

    The 2.1 length winner of Race 1

    -5.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 88th on the day

    Summary

    A very low IVR figure to make Sizzlers, but the context is at time of writing he's backing up in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes, and this race shape combined with his ability to relax and close, says he can sail past his -3.7 PB to date and run very well. -9.3 at the 800, before -1.2 in the mid race, and +3.2 last 400. Was in traffic throughout relaxing in the run as he stepped to the mile for the first time, and was only clear half way up the straight. That he let down with +2.9 last 200 which was the 15th best of the day is a great sign, and he's previously closed with a +4.1 and +3.5 last 400 so his closing speed is fully franked for a juvenile. 

    Subsequently: Winner Champagne Stakes 20/04 then winner Eagle Farm Sires Produce 01/06

    Roll on High
    Moonee Valley
    Mar 23, 2024

    The 1.9 length 4th in Race 5

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    Ready! This filly produced a booming +1.3 lengths above benchmark 3rd best of Melbourne Cup Day winning performance over 1400 at just her 4th career start. Resumed with traffic at Randwick at just -2.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 40th of the day performance, but in a "no tempo" race when -13.0 lengths below benchmark at the 800. She closed with a booming 16 length mid race squeeze going +2.9 from the 800 to 400 and +4.2 last 400. Here however at the 800 was going +1.3. That's a race to race improvement of early speed of 14.3 lengths! -0.1 and -0.6 last two sections were sound. Should peak next start.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Bendigo and Sunshine Coast before $16 winner Eagle Farm Group 3 Fred Best 01/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.