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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
CHAMPIONS DAY FORM NOW POSTED
November 8
Flemington

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Vivy Air
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The nose winner in Race 3

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 28th on the day

    Summary

    Finally broke through for her first win since September 2023, despite a remarkable 11 placings since with many of them in stakes grade and/or big prizemoney features. Perfect Ethan Brown ride to not concede - as has often been the case with this mare - sitting 2nd line going just -5.2 lengths below benchmark. +4.1 in the mid race meant a strong +9.3 length squeeze and from there she peaked with +1.8 last 400. Actually lost 2.6 lengths last 200 in isolation, and that's set her up to again run boldly in the Big Dance here Melbourne Cup day. Last year produced her PB in that race when 2nd with +1.5 lengths above benchmark.

    Subsequently: 2nd Big Dance Randwick 04/11 then winner Rosehill $2 million Five Diamonds 08/11

    Via Sistina
    Flemington
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 8

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Champion mare on the way to the Cox Plate and while beaten here, again found a totally unsuitable race shape off the barrier trial tempo in the Makybe 3 weeks earlier. -16.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800, after -20.7 first up Randwick early and -27.1 previous start so three races where going significantly slower than her capacity. However a booming +22.7 length squeeze with +6.0 in the mid race followed by +5.8 last 400. She simply couldn't do that if she wasn't still at the elite level, and with 3 weeks until her Grand Final, she clearly remains the testing material.

    Subsequently: Winner Cox Plate 25/10. Winner Champions Stakes 08/11

    Via Sistina
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 25, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 10

    +3.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Back to back Cox Plates, but after going 14 lengths slower to the 800 without PRIDE OF JENNI, unsurprisingly the astonishing +14.3 lengths above benchmark track record win wasn't close to being matched. Of note however after three very slow tempo runs - lead speeds of -20.7, -27.1 and -16.7 - she's "had a race". -2.7 at the 800, before +4.7 and +3.9. That says via the data that if fit and well and remaining in good order, she's highly likely to eclipse that at Flemington in the Champions 2000 in a fortnight. 

    Subsequently: Winner Champions Stakes Flemington 08/11

    Ceolwulf
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 9

    +2.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Blinkers first time and defended his King Charles title switching on for his first win and clear best performance this prep. -3.4 at the 800 had him 5.8 lengths from the lead, before +4.1 and +3.2 in an excellent display of sustained closing speed. Of interest last spring his Epsom win was +2.9 before an outstanding +5.2 winning this race. As such there's a strong historical pattern for more to come in the Champions Mile Flemington. 

    Subsequently: Winner Champions mile Flemington 08/11

    Giga Kick
    Caulfield
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 1 length winner in Race 9

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    The obvious of the win aside, ideal return from the star sprinter producing a good quality performance, but one that strongly suggests "peak to come" in the Champions sprint Cup week. -2.0 at the 800 when just 3.2 lengths from the lead, before +1.9 in the mid race and +1.8 last 400 which included a one length late taper last 200. This was also seen via the best last 800, the 2nd best last 600, but just the 8th best last 200 of the day. His +3.0 set in last year's Everest looks in his sights, and that should be very competitive at worst.

    Subsequently: Winner Champions Sprint Flemington 08/11

    Need Some Luck
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 14, 2025

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 5

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne this time in, and there looks to be more to come chasing his all time PB of +1.7 lengths above benchmark set October 2023 when still a colt. Disappointed the market, but had the race shape and a flat spot dead against chasing the all the way leader and is probably looking for 1400 now. -2.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 had him 5.6 lengths from the leader, +4.0 and +3.4 last two sections meant a very solid sustained chase, but note he lost 2.6 lengths from the 400 to 200. This was also seen via the 2nd best last 800, 600 and 200 of the day.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Eagle Farm 26/06 and spelled. First up winner Flemington 08/11

    Need Some Luck
    Randwick
    Apr 19, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 5

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 14th

    Summary

    Nice return! Note this is only his 2nd prep as a gelding winning two from four last time in, while here was caught 3 wide the trip on pace. -6.0 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +1.6 in the mid race, and -0.1 last 400 as his run ended despite winning. He's previously posted closing sections of +4,8, +5.9 and +7.7 with a PB of +1.7 set Warwick Farm 3rd start over 1200. Now showing an ability to relax, 1400 should be no issue and while he had good market support which he ran to, should only improve from this run. Can win in open handicaps from here.

    Subsequently: 2nd Gold Coast 10/05 and Eagle Farm 14/06 before end of prep 28/10. First up winner Flemington 08/11

    Point Barrow
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 26, 2025

    The 0.9 length 3rd in Race 5

    -3.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Another modest overall IVR figure with all 4 career runs to date being in the -2.3 to -3.9 band, but data breakdowns strongly suggests this is just circumstantial. Won both her starts this time in closing at Bendigo with the 3rd best last 800, and 4th best last 600 and 400 of the day before a late 1.3 length taper saw her finish with the 10th best last 200 of the day. Greatly elevated at Sandown with the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day running away with the last 400 a booming +5.7 which she's matched here with +5.8 also the best last 400 of this meeting. Perhaps freshened for Cup week up the straight from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 11/10. Winner Oaks Day Flemington 06/11

    Point Barrow
    Caulfield
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 2

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled her from Moonee Valley 26/09 when despite just -3.3 lengths below benchmark, her booming best last 400 of the night (+5.8) said there was more to come and she delivered it. -7.0 at the 800 was the same speed as her previous start and -0.5 in the mid race was similar. (-1.2.) The last 400 was slightly slower producing +4.4, but the context was remaining the best last 400 of the day. In addition the microsplits showed she sustained a longer run here with the best last 600 of the meeting, compared to the 13th best of the night start prior. Straight line Flemington or up to 1400 both look ideal.

    Subsequently: Flemington Oaks Day winner 06/11

    Getafix
    Randwick
    Jul 12, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 9

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    This was a big win and one that says he's got a higher level in him than this BM88 level. Settled 7 lengths from the leader/runner up COOL JAKEY and given the on-pace advantage of how the track was playing, that was a significant disadvantage. +0.4 was an 8.8 length squeeze, and he went on with it closing with +3.4 last 400, but the last 200 in isolation was a blistering +3.1. For context he produced the 10th best last 600, the 3rd best last 400 and the 2nd best last 200 of the day. Given he bolted in previous start Kenso (-3.3 but best of the day) off a 53 day freshen, the stable clearly now have him right with more to come.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Unplaced 04/10 and 18/10 Randwick, before winner Oaks Day Flemington 06/11

    Middle Earth
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 25, 2025

    The 1.8 length 3rd in Race 5

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Back on track! Won his first Australian start with +0.1 Flemington March 2000 metres in a soft tempo where unleashing a brilliant +7.1 last 400 with +4.9 just the last 200 in isolation. Gave a hint of that this time in with -0.4 back there in the Turnbull where producing a booming +25.4 length mid race squeeze which was the 2nd best of the day, but in a race that effectively "started" at the 800 where he was out the back and out of play. In the contrasting brutal Caulfield Cup he had to go 19 lengths faster early when just -4.0. Here -3.1, +5.1 and +2.9 meant a solid, sustained chase. Ready to run boldly in the Melbourne Cup.

    Subsequently: 3rd Melbourne Cup at $8 the place!

    Persian Spirit
    Flemington
    Sep 13, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 1

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Where did this come from??? Slow maturing 5yo who resumed off a 112 days off and smashed his all time PB of -0.3 when best of the day Geelong last September when also first up, being $51 odds for a reason with nothing in his data to suggest this was coming! -1.0 at the 800 had him 4 lengths from the leader who were overdoing it, +2.2 in the mid race and +3.6 last 400. This included a 0.6 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. There were 3 races at 1100 on the card with the other two stakes v this BM78, but he's produced clearly the best performance of them. On face value he'll work through his classes this spring.

    Subsequently: 5th Flemington 04/10. Then 4th Geelong Cup Day 23/10 before winner Flemington 04/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.