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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Sandown mini-form. Tips, race overviews, speed maps and assessed prices.
May 25
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Nicolini Vito
    Mornington
    Apr 20, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Quality sprinter/miler handicapper, who didn't really come up last prep, but after good jump outs and specking pre-race has just missed and ran near his usual range. -1.8 at the 800, +0.8 in the mid race and -1.3 last 400, and that evenness of splits suggested he turned up pretty fit, and should avoid flatness going forward 2nd up. Loves 1400 when right, and that looks a logical step from here, but we note at this time of year is best on clean ground.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Warrnambool 01/05, nose 2nd Flemington 18/05, winner Sandown 25/05

    Here to Shock
    Caulfield
    Apr 6, 2024

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 8

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Good quality "off season" 1400-1600 specialist who won his first race since the Bendigo feature mile this weekend in 2023, and matched his all time best in the process. -6.5 at the 800 sitting third line off a solid speed in the soft going. -0.8 and +2.8 last 2 sections showed a terrifically efficient ride from Stackhouse, also shown by his last 2 splits from the 400 to 200 and last 200 being exactly the same at +1.4. Best last 1200 of the day underlined the sustained close. This is his 3rd prep with Team Hayes and what's noticeable is his ability to relax in the run, having previously overdone it early.

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 04/05 then winner Doomben 25/05

    Nicolini Vito
    Flemington
    May 18, 2024

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just missed as he did first up Mornington when +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day, before a miss on a poorly presented biased Warrnambool track at their carnival. -5.4 at the 800, before -1.3 mid race and repeated it home with -1.2 last 400. However note from the 400 to 200 went +0.2, before just -1.3 last 200. That late gas out was also seen via the 5th best last 600 of the day, but the 16th best last 200. Is entered for Sandown Saturday at his favoured 1400 and can go one better without surprise.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 25/04

    Scarlett Oak
    Newcastle
    May 11, 2024

    The 2.4 length winner of Race 5

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Was backed like she was a "good thing" 2nd Australian start after -5.6 at Randwick in Group 3 company when runner up on genuinely bog heavy ground. Here on "only" a heavy track at Benchmark 72 level, she dominated and strongly suggested there's more to come. -19.1 at the 800, -3.9 mid race, before letting down with a +1.4 last 400 sprint. The context was the 7th best last 400 and the 3rd best last 200 of the day. Lightly raced, and that turn of foot should be an asset going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Doomben Roses 25/04

    Miss Aria
    Caulfield
    May 11, 2024

    The 1 length winner of Race 7

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne! We've sizzled her in her past three runs, after a -0.6 IVR figure here over 1200 early April, before a PB when beaten a nose last start in SA producing +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day. Here will significantly wide lane advantaged after the inside became "off" she's got away with a "bludge". -9.8 at the 800, compared to +5.3 first section at Morphettville. -6.2 in the mid race and -0.1 last 400. That was the 4th best of the day. What we learned was a very strong +8.6 wet track indicator. This is only BM70 level, so perhaps the fillies winter series at Flemington is an ideal direction from here???

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 25/05

    Bella Nipotina
    Flemington
    Mar 9, 2024

    The 1.9 length 5th in Race 5

    +2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    High class mare, who slightly came off her +2.6 first up in the Lightning, but note ran a "shocker" in this race last year off a similarly sharp first up run, but rebounded hard at Moonee Valley with +2.2 when 2nd to IMPERATRIZ. -2.0 at the 800, before +3.4 in the mid race. That tanked her out with just +0.6 last 400. This gives her an excellent platform to run to her +3 to +3.5 range best back to the tight track. If the star NZ mare is below her all time best, she'll give her a serious challenge.

    Subsequently: 4th Moonee Valley Williams Reid, 2nd Randwick TJ Smith, 4th Ascot Quokka, winner 18/05 Doomben 10,000

    Tannhauser
    Randwick
    Apr 6, 2024

    The 0.9 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    Looking for his 2nd career win and his first in 11 months, but is a lightly raced staying type who has only been in stakes racing since, and this 3rd up run is a career PB. -6.2 at the 800 completely conceding from the wide draw settling 8.4 lengths from the lead. -0.9 meant a solid 5.3 length squeeze, before last bit best bit +0.6 last 400 with +0.9 last 200 in isolation. Looks ideally suited heading to 2000 and in turn a likely Queensland prep from here.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 20/04 then winner Doomben 18/05

    Opal Ridge
    Randwick
    Oct 14, 2023

    The 1.9 length 2nd in Race 5

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 37th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market first up as beaten favourite, but the data strongly suggests she - remarkably given the $2million prizemoney - short of a run first up. Just -4.1 at the 800 was typical of her usual relaxed early speed profile, before +6.1 mid race. That was the biggest squeeze of her career, and it tanked her out. +3.7 last 400 with the last 200 in isolation just +1.5. This is also seen via the 13th best last 800 of the day, but just the 64th best last 200. Compare that to Rosehill first up March when +3.9 and an outstanding +4.8/+3.7 closing splits that included the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. We expect a big elevation from here.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced and spelled. First up winner Ortensia Scone 18/05

    Who Dares
    Caulfield
    Apr 27, 2024

    The 0.8 length winner of race 7

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Excellent return off a short 70 day break, running close to his PB of +1.3 lengths above benchmark set Flemington New Year's Day over 1400 when beaten a nose. +0.1 lengths above benchmark at the 800 stalking the lead, before +0.2 in the mid race and +0.7 last 400. Did also have a sharp 1.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Of note he can produce high lead speed in 1400 races, and has a solid wet track indicator. If he can hold this level at the time of year, he can win again.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 18/05

    Sky Lab
    Randwick
    Dec 30, 2023

    The 1.5 length 3rd in Race 7

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Deep into his prep, but this sound mile run back from 2300 and 2400 runs, says it's the perfect "tweener" before (presumably) heading back to the Gold Coast Magic Millions staying race which he won last year. -4.9 at the 800, before +4.1 in the mid race so a solid 9 length squeeze. Last 400 was +0.9 as he peaked on his run. Benchmark looks a most plausible figure from here stepping back to the longer trip and that should see him deep in the finish again.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Magic Millions day Gold Coast 13/01 and spelled. Resumed winner Scone Cup 17/05

    Without a Fight
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 10, 2023

    The 2 length winner of Race 6

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    We labelled his victory a fortnight earlier being a "big win" as was this just 0.3 of a length softer. The context is up in trip and 5 lengths slower, so to nearly match it underlined his quality. Just -11.1 at the 800 when 12 lengths from an effective lone leader in SERPENTINE. +6.2 in the mid race wasn't just excellent in isolation, but the context was a very strong 17.3 length 4th best of the day squeeze. Nearly sustained it home in winning going +4.7 last 400. High class stayer who deserves great respect into the spring features off this platform.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 23/09 first up. Winner Caulfield Cup 21/10. Winner Melbourne Cup 07/11

    Benedetta
    Flemington
    Mar 9, 2024

    The 1.7 length 4th in Race 5

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up run elevating from +1.1 at Caulfield first up, and has dragged her all time PB from +1.9 also up the straight last March at 1100 metres. -2.9 at the 800 was typical of her preferred "relaxed" early positioning, +4.9 mid race so an excellent +7.7 squeeze, before +0.2 last 400. Did have a 4 length "flat spot" slowdown from the 400 to 200 which adds merit to the performance. The SA Sangster and Goodwood look ideal Group 1 races to target.

    Subsequently: Winner Group 3 Irwin 13/04  Morphettville. 3rd Group 1 Sangster 27/04 before winner Group 1 Goodwood 11/05. 

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.