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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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November 14
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    General Salute
    Hawkesbury
    Aug 24, 2026

    The 0.7 length winner of trial 3

    -7.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 14th of the session.

    Summary

    The perfect mid-prep trial having not raced since 18/07 when 3rd on bog heavy ground after a best of day win in the Rosehill Winter Stakes. Here -7.7 and -7.3 first two sections under a hold, before -1.4 last 400. However the increments show it was just a late "explosion" going -3.0 from the 400 to 200, before +1.6 last 200 in isolation. That says he's in great order to return to the races, and perform at his benchmark to +1 range best with ordinary luck. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 19/09 at $12! Unplaced Rosehill 10/10 then winner Newcastle Hunter 14/11

    Natural Fling
    Sandown
    Sep 5, 2026

    The 1.1 length 3rd in Race 8

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent progression by this lightly raced 3yo filly taking on the older proven Group 1 sprinters, and while defeated as favourite, dragged her PB from -0.8 to +1.5 and suggested there's more to come. The 3 sections were -0.2, -3.0 and +0.5 so was clearly impacted by the mid race slowdown. (Mainly from the 800 to 600.) Did taper 0.7 of a length over the last 200 which was understandable given the sustained pressure she absorbed compared to bolting in against her own 3 weeks earlier first up. We look forward to tracking her progress. 

    Subsequently: 0.3 lengths 2nd Flemington 12/09 Danehill. Unplaced Coolmore 31/10 then winner $1 million Thoroughbred Sandown 14/11

    Kingswood
    Caulfield
    Aug 29, 2026

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 9

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return after a 175 days away with a 2nd best of the day performance despite the Memsie at Group 1 level being the previous race. What assisted - and he had the talent to cope - was a high pressure race "nowhere to hide" race shape. At the 800 he was going +2.3 lengths above benchmark despite being 4.6 lengths from the lead, before -0.9 in the mid race, and a "nothing left" -7.0 last 400. He has tactical versatility being able to produce very strong mid race moves off softer tempos. This is a new IVR PB and clearly turned up very fit. From here? Maybe the Underwood? In this form he's a genuine top 3 chance.

    Subsequently: 4th Underwood 19/09, then 4th Might and Power 10/10 before winner Caulfield Cup 17/10 and Zipping Classic 14/11

    Fundamental Nature
    Flemington
    Nov 3, 2026

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 10

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    This was a big win! 5th run 2nd prep and has shown talent since her debut win at Pakenham (Moonee Valley transfer) closing with the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the night. Here came off a PB at Caulfield when 5th with -0.6 lengths below benchmark, and extended it by a length after a dead cold but typically successful Willie Pike ride. -3.0 at the 800 had her 8.2 lengths from the lead in an effective non-winning position, before +1.7 and +3.9 last two sections, with the context being the 3rd best last 600, 2nd best last 400 and the best last 200 of the meeting at the end of 1400. Maher trained so may keep improving!

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 14/11

    Shadhavar
    Flemington
    Nov 3, 2026

    The 4.3 length winner of Race 9

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Airborne! Came off leading throughout on a firm/on pace advantaged Caulfield Cup day when producing a new PB of +1.7 lengths above benchmark when 4th up, and rather than any plateau or decline has gone better! Led going +4.0 lengths above benchmark at the 800 which was flying, before +0.2 in the mid race and +1.2 last 400 - the 7th best of the day at the end of 1400 - meaning she overcame a one length slowdown before crushing her rivals. Can she sustain this level? There's certainly nothing in the data that suggests any drop off!

    Subsequently: Winner Group 1 Orr Sandown 14/11

    Alabama State
    Rosehill
    Oct 10, 2026

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 1

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    As we often see from small stables has "raced himself into fitness" and here 6th run in, and down in class to very basic midway company dominated with his best IVR figure this prep. -6.7 at the 800 was a cruise when 3 lengths from the lead, before a very solid 10 length squeeze with +3.1 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was benchmark losing 2 lengths late with the race won. This matches his all time best of +0.1 set October 2024, and he's set to run to that. With conservative placement up to BM78 range he can win again.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 31/10 then winner Gundagai Cup 13/11

    Essay
    Warwick Farm
    Oct 30, 2026

    The 3.6 length winner of trial 10

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Stalked the lead and just bolted in with blistering closing sections of +4.6 and +6.7, with the added context the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the session and still the 6th best last 200 cruising home with a gap on the opposition. Has had two starts for two unplaced runs, but note at $5:50 in a Randwick Listed on debut in February then $1:80 Hawkesbury resuming in July and again spelled. On both occasions his lead in trials were sharp, but this is clear next level. The reality is if he brings this level to a maiden, he's unlikely to be defeated. 

    Subsequently: First up Gundagai winner! 13/11

    Priory Park
    Warwick Farm
    Oct 13, 2026

    The 0.9 length 3rd in trial 6

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th of the session

    Summary

    Excellent trial with just one prep to date and is now gelded. -9.1 at the 800, before +3.8 and +2.5 last two sections peaking on his run late losing 0.6 of a length over the last 200. This was also seen via the 2nd best last 800, the 3rd best last 600 and 400, but the 12th best last 200 of the day. Won at Muswellbrook with -3.9 ranked 3rd of the 1st of May meeting, before starting favourite and failing Gosford. Should return at a brand new level.

    Subsequently: Winner Kembla 24/10. Winner Warwick Farm 11/11

    Evaporate
    Sandown
    Sep 5, 2026

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 7

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    A "barrier trial" stakes win for this typically high cruising on pacer, but given a quiet ride from Blake Shinn out of the back straight head wind settling 5 lengths from the lead. Just -19.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was clearly the slowest first section of his career, before -3.1 from the 800 to 400. Cruised home with +4.8 last 400 which matched his best last section of his career. As he showed when 2nd in both the Toorak and All Star Mile, he's a rock solid +3.5 range type, and with this perfect 2nd up run, he's set to run near it. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield Rupert Clarke and Toorak, the Randwick Diamonds Prelude then winner $2 million Five Diamonds

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Oct 17, 2026

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 9

    +4.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Champion mare who won a "fast barrier trial" over just 4 rivals after going just -9.9 lengths below benchmark at the 800. Increased to +4.8 from the 800 to 400 with her typically elite mid race capacity improving 14.7 lengths. Last 400 was +1.3 with the race well won. In addition the 200 increments showed a 3.7 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, before a late 0.7 length rebound over the last 200 metres. Could not have had an easier set up for her trip south to Flemington, where it would be no surprise if she eclipsed her all time PB of +4.9.

    Subsequently: Winner Champions mile Flemington 07/10

    Lazzura
    Randwick
    Oct 24, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 8

    +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    We stamped her four weeks earlier with this race in mind when +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th of the day 2nd up, and here she's not only gone on with it, but thrived with significantly stronger tempo. +3.3 and +1.7 first two sections going forward to suit the track conditions, meaning 11 lengths faster first 1000 metres race to race! Entitled to drop away from there but the -1.3 was still sound. Was only 3rd up here chasing her all time best of +3.0 to +3.9, and going back to her usual pattern around 3 lengths from the lead can see her get there from here. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/11

    Point Barrow
    Caulfield
    Sep 19, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving 4yo mare who should still have her best in front of her noting she started favourite in the Oakleigh Plate February when 5th in an on-pace race. This conversely was the perfect race shape with Mark Zahra also being the first to take advantage of the A1 lanes. -2.5 at the 800 was 4.2 lengths from the lead, before closing with +3.1 and +3.8 last 2 sections typical of her capacity to produce and sustain an 800 metre sprint which in this case was the 5th best of the day. Looks a key player in high quality local sprints this carnival. 

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 10/10 Winner Champions Sprint Flemington 07/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.