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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield mini-form with $20 voucher back
July 27
Posted Saturday 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Recommendation
    Caulfield
    Jul 13, 2024

    The 7 length winner of Race 8

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Bolted in the stakes race, but while we need to underline the margin was flattering given the opposition "not turning up", he's produced a best of the day performance, and only 0.4 lengths below his resuming run Moonee Valley last prep which was on good ground. Here +0.8 at the 800, before -1.7 in the mid race and -7.4 last 400. Best last 800 and 600 of the day, but the 9th best last 200 with the race in his keeping. Can improve from here and with likely lack of "different form" can remain very hard to beat. We look forward to measuring his progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 27/07

    Fleetwood
    Randwick
    Jun 8, 2024

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 6

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Very consistent 3yo who made it two from two this prep, and the data suggests more to come off this new PB and first ever best of the day run. While "looking" to have the perfect run, went from -2.9 at the 800 to -5.5 in the mid race meaning a 2.5 length slowdown. Last bit best bit -3.5 last 400 and -1.6 last 200 in isolation. This is his first prep gelded, and of note in his first up Warwick Farm win when -2.9 lengths above benchmark, he blew right out late losing 3.3 lengths last 200 in isolation. Should peak fitness wise next start and this is basic BM78 company, so placed conservatively a hatrick is on the cards.

    Subsequently: 3rd Caulfield (after bombing the start) 29/06 and 3rd Flemington 06/07. Winner Randwick 27/07.

    Attrition
    Caulfield
    Aug 19, 2023

    The 2.1 length 5th in Race 9

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo taking on much more seasoned runners and passed with flying colours with a clear best first up run, and only 0.6 from his previous PB which was set 3rd up last time in. What's noticeable in the data was he went around 4 lengths faster than his previous "comfort zone" in the first section going +0.9 at the 800. Increased from there with +5.4 mid race, but then just -3.7 last 400. That's a most understandable "gas out" and another 1-2 length improvement from here will have him very dangerous in most races. A Toorak Handicap looks ideal.

    Subsequently: 2nd Feehan 09/09 Moonee Valley, unplaced 23/09 Underwood, before winner Toorak at $26!

    Asfoora
    Caulfield
    Feb 10, 2024

    The one length 2nd in Race 8

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return run through the prism that her Oakleigh Plate is her grand final in a fortnight. -0.1 at the 800, before -0.3 in the mid race and +2.4 last 400. The breakdown was +2.1 from the 400 to 200, before losing 2 lengths over the last 200 in isolation.  8th best last 600 and 400 of the day, but just the 17th best last 200. Last prep she elevated from +1.9 to +5.3 when 2nd up Moonee Valley and a similar leap will see her take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Oakleigh Plate and (4th) Galaxy Rosehill. 4th Haydock before winning Royal Ascot Group 1 King Charles 18/07

    Foxy Cleopatra
    Caulfield
    Feb 10, 2024

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 5

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Back on track after "sinking" in the Ballarat Cup 9 weeks earlier, but the walk/sprint here was against. Just -9.0 at the 800, before +2.3 in the mid race so an excellent 11.3 length mid race squeeze. Last 400 was +0.9, and was hard the fence so no wide lane advantage. A race like the Peter Young in a fortnight over 1800 looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Resumed unplaced Flemington 08/06 and 22/06 before winner 13/07 Caulfield at $21

    Robusto
    Rosehill
    Feb 3, 2024

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 7

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a fortnight earlier when best of the day with +1.3 lengths above benchmark, and while just missing here, the race shape was dead against, and his blistering close was the best of his career. -5.3 at the 800 was 4.6 lengths slower early. -1.3 was a "cruisey" move, before +8.1 last 400 with +5.0 the last 200 in isolation and the 4th best of the day. He's clearly racing very well and can return to the winners list in a grade similar to this BM88. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 24/02 then unplaced 16/03 and spelled. First up winner Rosehill 20/07

    Jedibeel
    Randwick
    Jul 6, 2024

    The 0.6 length 2nd in Race 6

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    We underline this is just BM78 company, but this four year old has returned in great form now gelded this time in, and here has just failed against rock hard fit ONE DESTINY on the heavy ground. -5.8 at the 800 stalking the leaders, before -0.3 in the mid race and -4.8 last 400 on his wettest ground for the prep. First up at Kenso he produced -1.2 best of the Anzac Day card, and he followed it with -0.5 when 2nd at Scone and -0.6 winning at Canterbury. His all time best is +0.9 at Wyong last September on good ground. Can win again this from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 20/07

    Arqana
    Sandown
    Jun 15, 2024

    The one length winner of Race 5

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing mare who with good market support, produced a clear new PB both IVR wise from -3.9, and her first top 10 performance. Sat 3rd line at the 800 going +0.2 at the 800, suffered a slowdown going -2.4 in the mid race, before -1.1 last 400. Last bit best bit out of a pocket going benchmark last 200 on the softest part of the track which was the equal 2nd best of the day. Relaxes well in the run, and will be no surprise if she can drag this figure up in distance. Off this very basic BM74 class can win again.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 20/07

    First Settler
    Caulfield
    Jun 29, 2024

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 1

    -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    After a plain post-stakes we have a late season 2yo that has emerged as a genuinely promising potential stakes horse with this dynamic debut. Stalked the lead going -1.7 at the 800, suffered a 2 length slowdown going -3.8 in the mid race, before an explosive +4.0 last 400, with +3.3 of that just the last 200 with the race well won and the rider easing. With the caveat that he had first use of a deteriorating track, he did manage the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day, and on adjustments a top 7 performance. That is rare for a 2yo even at this time of year and we look forward to tracking his progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 20/07

    Jimmy the Bear
    Morphettville
    May 11, 2024

    The 1.4 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent run having to cope with a significantly faster tempo than Caulfield resuming. There was going -11.5 at the 800, whereas here +3.6 so 15 lengths faster race to race! -1.1 in the mid race, before a "collapse" of -9.0. He's run near his all time best of +0.4 when winning at Caulfield last August. The winter championships back at Flemington look ideal if heading there.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield and Sandown before winner Mildura Cup 19/07

    Jimmy the Bear
    Caulfield
    Jun 1, 2024

    The 1.6 length 6th in Race 7

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Missed 231 days prior to this prep, but turned up fit with a solid 4th here 27/04 over 1400 in a soft tempo race shape going -11.5 at the 800. He went to SA and found the reverse producing +3.6 at the 800 so 15 lengths quicker! Then here? Back to a "walk" at -16.3 near the rear of the field with leader/winner DASHING getting a "steal" going -11.2. Very strong mid race at -0.6 from the 800 to 400, before a booming +10.0 last 400 albeit on a rock hard straight. Peaked last time in with +0.4 over a mile, and at time of writing is in Sunday's Swan Hill Cup and it looks a perfect race for him.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Sandown 15/06, then winner Mildura Cup 19/07

    Deny Knowledge
    Caulfield
    Apr 6, 2024

    The 0.4 length 3rd in Race 9

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Came from a "nothing" first up run at Rosehill when $41, to going back to what she's best at which is leading at pace. +4.6 at the 800 and that was very fast on the soft ground. -4.0 in the mid race, and -5.3 last 400. Lost 1.9 lengths last 200 in isolation and that strongly suggests a peak run from here. Her PB to date is +2.5 set at Moonee Valley over a mile, but has twice won with +1.1 and the latter was at Flemington Group Matriarch last Cup week. 

    Subsequently: 4th Mornington Cup, 13th Doomben 18/05. Stable switch 2nd Eagle Farm 29/06 then winner Grafton Cup.

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.