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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield WITH BONUS FREE EAGLE FARM FORM N/C EMAILED FROM 10:30AM AS A WORD DOC
27th June
Now posted

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Davida
    Geelong
    Jan 3, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 5

    -0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Emerging mare who backed up a big odds all the way win at Cranbourne a week earlier when -0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th of their city (MV) meeting. There went +3.4 lengths above benchmark, while here +4.3 so gets an extra tick for repeating high speed. +0.9 in the mid race, before -2.0 last 400. While "falling in" she was only 3rd up after knuckling jumping on wet ground Caulfield 29/11. Won her previous start - a maiden - at Echuca 20/09 when also leading throughout. Has the "free-wheeling" style suited to this time of year on clean ground and can win again out of this BM74 grade.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 07/02 and spelled. 2nd up SA Parks winner 27/06 at $11

    Splash Back
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 26, 2025

    The 0.8 lengths winner of Race 8

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the night.

    Summary

    Lightly raced 6yo mare who has only had 8 starts for the Begg stable and the best still looks in front of her. -5.2 at the 800 was typical of her relaxed racing pattern, but the race shape meant a big mid race extension wasn't needed. -0.8 from the 800 to 400, before +2.1 last 400. However it wasn't until straightening in the short straight with +3.1 last 200. That was the 3rd best of the night at the end of 1500 metres. In her 6 previous runs beyond 1200 metres she was top 2 last 200 of the meeting underlining her closing speed, which is comfortably in the +6 range. A bigger track looks ideal from here and possibly a mile.

    REPOST AFTER TATTS TIARA GROUP 1 WIN EAGLE FARM 27/06/26

    Splash Back
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 2

    -4.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 44th on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR time, but a dominant first up win after heavy market support and an excellent turn of foot when asked says stick with her! -7.1 at the 800 cruising 3 lengths from the lead. -3.7 in the mid race meant a gentle 3.4 length squeeze, but the +6.5 last 400 was brilliant. Regardless of the soft early tempo, she's ran the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the day. This is only her 2nd prep and 3rd run with the on fire Begg stable and in both her runs last spring she closed with the best last 400 and 200 of the day. The latter was Flemington Melbourne Cup Day. Relaxes and closes well. More to come!

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 21/06.

    REPOST AFTER TATTS TIARA GROUP 1 WIN EAGLE FARM 27/06/26

    Sun God
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Just missed making it two from two this time in after an outstanding best of the day Scone carnival win with +2.3 lengths above benchmark. Here the main difference was when stepping from 1300 to the mile, was 4.4 lengths softer first section requiring a 5 length bigger mid race squeeze. -8.2 at the 800, before +3.9 in the mid race and +3.4 last 400. Lost 0.8 of a length over the last 200 strongly suggesting there's more to come now that he's got a platform. Ready to step up in distance from here. Ipswich Cup next?

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 27/06

    Sun God
    Scone
    May 16, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 10

    +2.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    A narrow first up win but don't underestimate its quality! -3.8 at the 800 when 7 lengths from the lead, before +3.2 in the midrace and +2.0 last 400. This included a 1.2 length flat spot from the 400 to 200. Ended his last prep with +1.8 lengths above benchmark winning at Randwick over a mile, and that was his 2nd local campaign as an import having 5 winless runs when first racing here mid 2025. More to come!

    Subsequently: 2nd Eagle Farm 06/06 then winner Eagle Farm 27/06

    Skyhook
    Hawkesbury
    May 2, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 6

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Matched his all time best from a run earlier when 6th to champion filly TEMPTED over 1200, but did so stepping to 1400 metres and dominating from the front with excellent sustained speed. In addition he overcame a big mid race slowdown. +6.1 at the 800 was the fastest first section of his career and clearly so, but then -2.9 in the mid race meant a 9 length loss of speed. Rebounded hard with +3.5 last 400, with clearly last bit best bit +2.9 last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via building from the 79th best last 600 to the 15th best last 200 of the day. Looks ideally suited if heading north for QLD stakes races. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Eagle Farm 30/05 then winner Group 3 Gunsynd Eagle Farm 13/06

    Sacrify
    Hawkesbury
    May 2, 2026

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 4

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Led throughout on a track that suited as well as having a favourable race shape, but he's produced a new PB and clearly so from -2.3 and -3.0, elevating from -3.4 first up here over 1500. His first section of -2.2 was a cruising speed for him, before +2.5 in the mid race and +4.1 last 400. This included a 0.5 length flat spot slowdown from the 400 to 200, before picking up 0.8 of a length under full pressure. Ran a 2nd at Warrnambool on bog heavy ground last September, and was a close up 6th Melbourne Cup Day also on wet ground. Can work through his grades this winter as a slow maturing stayer. 

    Subsequently: 4th Scone 16/05, then 7th Rosehill 30/05 before winner Rosehill 27/06 at $13

    King Pedro
    Rosehill
    Jun 13, 2026

    The nose 2nd in Race 4

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 30th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced Ex-NZ in his 2nd local prep who just missed here including a dismissed protest, but he's A1 ready for ongoing success in staying races, after also being narrowly defeated at Gosford previous run when -0.2 lengths below benchmark on adjusted IVR figures. Just -15.6 lengths below benchmark at the 800 had him 6 lengths from the lead, before a very strong 14.4 length squeeze with -1.2 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +1.5, but note a 2 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a 2.2 length rebound late. He'll thrive with a stronger tempo and/or stepping up in trip from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 27/06

    Zoufame
    Gold Coast
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 0.8 length 3rd in Race 1

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    First up 2nd career start now gelded and produced a run that says he'll be winning very shortly. -6.9 at the 800 when 4.5 lengths from the lead, before a solid near 10 length squeeze going +2.9 in the mid race, and increased his speed home with +6.6 last 400. Ran the 2nd best last 600 on Magic Millions day and started $1:40 when beaten favourite on debut at Bathurst. Clearly a stronger and more focused horse this time in, and top 15 on the iconic Gold Coast day is a further great sign of ability.

    Subsequently:Spelled and first up Warwick Farm winner 24/06

    Midnight Dynamite
    Doomben
    May 16, 2026

    The 2.1 length winner of Race 1

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Two from two this prep, but elevated big time from his -1.7 length below benchmark ranked 14th on the day first up win at Randwick on good going, to this top 3 performance on soft ground. Led going -2.6 at the 800, before -0.9 in the mid race and +0.1 last 400 which included a 0.5 length late taper over the last 200 with the race won. Excellent wet track indicator of +8.7. His career PB is +0.6 set at Randwick in BM78 company 01/11, and he's set to at least match that from here. This is just class 6 company, so perhaps back here in a fortnight at BM85 or Eagle Farm Listed 1500 a week later?

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick 06/07 then winner Randwick Listed Civic Stakes 20/06

    Ice Kool
    Randwick
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 6

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Very promising lightly raced 3yo who we sizzled when winning here 27/12 over 1200 with +0.8 lengths above benchmark 2nd career start. His debut was a -0.9 length above benchmark best of day win at Warwick Farm so this says he's returned 1.6 lengths better as a starting point. Here -1.9 at the 800 leading, before -0.6 in the mid race and -1.1 last 400. This included a flat spot of a 2.1 length dip from the 400 to 200. He ran the 3rd best last 800 of the day, the 2nd best last 600, but just the 15th best last 400 and 200. That strongly suggests there's more to come and in the winter that should equate to more wins. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 20/06

    Stylish
    Flemington
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 5

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 40th on the day

    Summary

    Fitter and firmer and look out! Despite the modest IVR time, produced the perfect "loom and fade" run in a "no tempo" race after 154 days away. Just -16.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 stalking the lead pack, before -6.6 in the mid race and -0.5 last 400. However lost 2.2 lengths over the last 200 which we put down to conditioning and particularly in the sapping conditions. This was also seen via the 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day, but just the 12th best last 200. She's a "just below benchmark" mare and that wins city races through the winter, but getting away from heavy ground would be ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 20/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.