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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
February 15
Posted 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Another Wil
    Rosehill
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 9

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Four runs this prep for four appearances in Sizzlers, and off this best of the day dynamic win extending his PB from +0.6, we still don't know his ceiling! -0.1 at the 800, +1.6 in the mid race and +3.7 last 400. This sets him up to run to his best in this week's Doncaster, and of note his only two starts on heavy ground saw a "swimmers" wet track indicator of +12.8 and +13.8 albeit in Werribee and Moe maidens first two starts. Typically would need another 1.5 to 2.5 lengths improvement to win the big Randwick mile, and there's nothing to say he couldn't elevate to that level.

    RE-POSTING 10/02/25 with the context this was his previous PB prior to winning the CF Orr Saturday

    Duke De Sessa
    Caulfield
    Oct 19, 2024

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Won his Grand Final Caulfield Cup with a new PB from +0.6 set in his lead up run when 4th in the Turnbull a fortnight earlier, which included a brilliant on pace Harry Coffey ride sapping all energy from those back in the field. Stalked the lead going +1.6 at the 800 which was good speed on the soft conditions, before -3.2 in the mid race, and -8.2 last 400 including a complete complete late gas out going just -5.1 last 200. Not entered for the Melbourne Cup, but if they keep him going the Queen Elizabeth on the last day of the Flemington carnival looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 09/11 to VIA SISTINA and spelled. First up winner Caulfield 08/02

    Angel Capital
    Caulfield
    Sep 21, 2024

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 9

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Good progression here from his Moonee Valley win a fortnight earlier when -2.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 28th on the day, and has announced himself as a genuine Caulfield Guineas threat. -5.1 at the 800, before -1.0 in the mid race. His last 400 of +1.4 wasn't just a sound 10th best of the day, but note jockey Melham was forced to make his run inside along the slower lanes. This strongly suggests more to come, which we caveat he will need if the better Sydney colts head south.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield Guineas. Spelled, then first up winner Caulfield 08/02

    Shezanalister
    Randwick
    Jul 6, 2024

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 7

    -3.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Resumed with a win on very wet ground, but the data strongly suggests there's much more to come. -6.6 at the 800 stalking the lead, -5.3 in the mid race, before -4.4 last 400 meaning a raw time of only -16.3 lengths below benchmark reflecting the testing conditions. The last 200 in isolation was just -3.5 reflecting a late tank out. Last prep won first up Canterbury with -2.1 lengths below benchmark, before a career PB of +0.1 at Warwick Farm. We expect a similar elevation going forward and particularly if she can get onto better conditions.

    Subsequently: Failed to win in five more runs, but first up again next prep winner Randwick 08/02

    Rey Magnerio
    Flemington
    Nov 9, 2024

    The 0.2 length winner in Race 4

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th best on the day

    Summary

    Super consistent sprinter - this was his 6th consecutive top 10 of the day performance and 7 of his past 8 runs all Saturday metro - and he's extended his PB from +1.7. Stalked the leaders going -1.7 at the 800, before +2.1 in the mid race and +0.9 last 400 in pretty much the perfect ride. 4th run for the prep, so this is pretty much his level, but his ability to hold his form means he deserves obvious ongoing respect into the summer.

    Subsequently: 2nd Cranbourne $1 million Meteorite 23/11. Freshened then winner Caulfield 08/02

    Here To Shock
    Pakenham
    Dec 21, 2024

    The nose winner of Race 8

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    While an excellent best of day performance winning the new $1million Supernova, we caveat that while this could be end of prep, but - yes fence sitting - the stable are remarkable at "keeping them up". His booming career PB was set three starts back winning at Rosehill with the perfect race shape and Nash Rawiller ride when +3.8 lengths above benchmark, so this is a reversion to his "non outlier" rock solid +1 range. -0.6 stalking the lone leader, +2.7 in the mid race, and -0.2 last 400. Failing to break benchmark late is the concerning sign coming off his poor Randwick run with Cardiac arrythmia. Perhaps another freshen from here can work?

    Subsequently: Freshen before winning NZ Te Rapa Group 1 sprint 08/02

    Point and Shoot
    Randwick
    Jan 25, 2025

    The 5.4 length winner of Race 6

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Returned gelded for his 2nd prep this time in, and after being competitive in all four runs with a best of -1.4 lengths below benchmark, has exploded with a new PB where the clock matched the booming margin. +0.4 at the 800 was nearly 6 lengths from the flying leaders, +5.6 in the mid race though was excellent "fast and faster" pace, before +0.1 last 400. The breakdown was actually losing 1.4 lengths last 200 with the race won. That strongly suggests he's still climbing, and off this BM72 level, has said an early season 3yo stakes race is in his scope.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 08/02

    Oh Diamond Lil
    Canterbury
    Jan 1, 2025

    The 2.4 length winner of race 5

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Comes off a 4.5 length demolition of her Kembla maiden leading in off a soft tempo and producing -3.6 lengths below benchmark, to again controlling the race but this time producing high, sustained pressure. +3.0 at the 800, +2.1 in the mid race, before +3.6 last 400 to smash her previous PB of -2.4 set first up also here at 1200 metres. This is just a BM64 and her 6th career run, so the reality is if she can hold this figure she can keep winning through her grades.

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 18/01 then winner Randwick 08/02

    Cylinder
    Flemington
    Feb 17, 2024

    The 2.5 length 6th in Race 8

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Up front we aren't stamping him going into the Newmarket, but be very wary of writing him off from this "plain looking" run for two key factors: Firstly this was his best ever first up run, and $12 to $17 here knowing his "trainers intent" goal is ahead, says he can produce a big elevation in 3 weeks time, noting his outstanding Everest 5th was +4.6 lengths above benchmark. That's a near certain top 3 finish if he can bring that! -2.5 at the 800, -5.4 mid race meant the negative of a 3 length slowdown, before +4.0 last 400. We expect a big elevation from here. 

    Subsequently: Winner Newmarket Handicap at $11

    First Immortal
    Flemington
    Jan 18, 2025

    The 3.5 length 8th in Race 8

    -4.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 28th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but be wary of underestimating it, as it gives him a platform to rebound hard after a poor Moonee Valley run when in the market. Here he settled well back rather than on speed going just -9.8 at the 800. Sound squeeze of 9.6 lengths from the 800 to 400 with -0.2 before +5.4 last 400. This is right in his range of the best close he can do with a +5.3 and +5.8 spring 2023, and clearly his best this time in. His PB is +0.6 (twice) at the mile and 2520 showing his versatility. He missed 204 days racing prior to this prep, so now with a 4 run platform looks set to make a leap towards his best.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 01/02.

    Name Dropper
    Flemington
    Jan 11, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Made it 3 wins from 3 first up runs, but this was easily the best of them to go with a big new PB from -3.1 from when 4th at Moonee Valley in August. +7.0 at the 800 was genuine speed, before an understandable taper going +1.9 and -5.3 last two sections. Did find 1.2 lengths last 200 in isolation under full pressure which is a good sign of tenacity. Could "feel" the run if asked to back up quickly, but he looks set for more wins this prep noting this is only BM74 level.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 01/02

    Bonjoy
    Ascot
    Nov 30, 2024

    The 1.5 length 3rd in Race 7

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return from this slow maturing 5yo mare that said she'd be adding to her 7 career wins very shortly. "Out the back" early going -11.6, before a booming 19 length squeeze producing +7.3 lengths above benchmark from the 800 to 400. That was the biggest of the day, and she still closed with a very strong +5.8. For added context the best last 800 and 600 of the day, and the 2nd best last 400 of the meeting. Did lose 0.8 of a length last 200 which was the 5th best of the day. Her 3 best runs have been +1.3, +1.0 and +0.9, and a repeat of that level looks very likely from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 14/12 then winner Ascot 18/01, and winner Ascot 01/02

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.