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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Moonee Valley
March 22
Posted Saturday 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Carnival Row
    Sandown Hillside
    Feb 26, 2025

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Nice return! Lightly raced 4yo who started his 2nd prep as a gelding with all 3 wins to date on synthetic tracks. Here settled midfield in a high pressure 1400 but going +1.8 lengths above benchmark at the 800. Last two sections were +2.9 and +2.4 which was excellent sustained speed on the firm ground, and said he clearly turned up very fit. This is just BM74 company, so another benchmark range run can see him go one better in similar.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 18/03 at $11!

    Lady Shenandoah
    Randwick
    Feb 15, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 7

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced filly who returned with an easy Group 2 victory, and a new PB from -0.4 (winning the Group 1 Flight) that says she's a climber who hasn't finished winning. -3.8 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +2.4 in the mid race and +4.7 last 400. That's right in the range of both her last 400 closing sprints last prep, but after doing more in the mid race. She's a short favourite now for the Surround, and - particularly if her stablemate AUTUMN GLOW doesn't run - she looks deserving of that expectation. We look forward to tracking her progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Surround 01/03 Randwick. Winner Coolmore 15/03

    Iowna Merc
    Rosehill
    Feb 1, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 8

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Unlucky! Race shape and lanes were both dead against as he went down by a nose stopping him from making it 3 wins from 4 starts. -7.1 at the 800 was 6.8 lengths from the lead, while the winner WILLAIDOW was just 2 lengths back and cruising 2nd line. +2.7 mid race meant an excellent 9.7 length squeeze, before +7.8 last 400. He closed with the 2nd best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. He couldn't have done much more from his position in running. From the on fire Baker stable, so there's every chance he'll hold his form despite having 6 runs to date. His current PB is +1.6 and he can rebound to that level from here.

    Subsequently: 0.2 length 2nd Randwick 15/02, before winner Randwick 01/03, and again Rosehill 15/03

    Lazzura
    Randwick
    Mar 1, 2025

    The 2.9 length 3rd in Race 7

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    A well beaten 3rd, but to outstanding performances from LADY SHENANDOAH and LADY OF CAMELOT, but this +1.0 length above benchmark performance has her at a new level from her benchmark best in the spring, and strongly suggests she's a filly to give great respect to as she steps up in distance. +0.8 at the 800 was a 6 length early speed elevation from resuming a fortnight earlier, and the fastest she's gone in her career. +3.7 mid race, before +2.6 last 400 as the run understandably told noting she lost 1.2 lengths last 200 in isolation. Should peak from here, but now needs to peel away from the first two home.

    Subsequently: Winner Phar Lap Stakes Rosehill 15/03

    Lady Shenadoah
    Randwick
    Mar 1, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of race 7

    +3.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Filly 2nd up 3rd prep who brought up her 2nd Group 1 win - after the Flight Stakes in the spring - but has exploded her PB from +0.5, and in doing has so elevated to a level good enough to be respected in any race against older horses that Chris Waller chooses to test her in! Stalked the lead going +1.4 at the 800, which matches her fastest early speed level of her career. That was 2nd start Doomben, before tapering with -3.8 and -3.9. Here her last two sections were +3.4 and +5.1! Likely to "feel" this massive performance, so whether the great trainer gives her 3-4 weeks off (ideal) time will tell, but she's definitely now at a "serious" level.

    Subsequently: Winner Coolmore 15/03 Rosehill

    Memo
    Wyong
    Dec 11, 2024

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 6

    -2.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent elevation from just -6.6 lengths below benchmark when 3rd on debut Randwick 05/10, and one that says she'll be winning shortly with ordinary luck and progression. -2.1 at the 800 when 3 lengths from the lead. -1.0 in the mid race, before a booming +6.2 last 400. She closed with the 5th best last 600 of the day, the 3rd best last 400 and the best last 200 of the day. This sets her up to be a 2yo who can run a strong 1200 and deserves great respect from here.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick 28/12. Gold Coast 2nd Magic Millions 17/01. Randwick unplaced 01/03 before winner Sweet Embrace Rosehill 15/03

    Elphinstone
    Flemington
    Jan 11, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 9

    Benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled her from her Pakenham win when -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day, and she's gone slightly better here in a race shape requiring a solid mid race and sustained close. -4.1 at the 800 had her 6.6 lengths from the lead, before +2.3 in the mid race, and +3.9 last 400. This included a 1.2 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Hard to knock and can win again placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Caulfield 08/02 then winner CS Hayes in SA 10/03

    Elphinstone
    Pakenham
    Dec 21, 2024

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    4yo mare who has always shown glimpses of talent, but needs clean ground that she got here but didn't get in her previous run Caulfield on a very wet deck. -1.1 at the 800 though 5.5 lengths from the leaders who were clearly overdoing it. +0.8 in the mid race and +3.9 last bit best bit over the last 400. Had market support pre-race that she was bringing a good performance, and has produced a new PB from -2.2 when 2nd in the Bendigo Guineas 1400 in April. This is just BM78 level, and this sets her up to go up in class and possibly distance given her ability to relax in the run and close hard.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 11/01. Unplaced Caulfield 08/02 then winner CS Hayes SA 10/03

    Treasurethe Moment
    Caulfield
    Feb 22, 2025

    The one length winner of Race 5

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Dynamic return by the VRC Oaks winner who has dragged her PB up a length, and with a late taper that says more to come. Stalked the lead going -1.0 at the 800, before +1.9 in the mid race and +0.2 last 400. Lost 0.7 of a length last 200 in isolation, and note her closing speed is fully franked with 5 performances between +4.3 and +6.9. That ability to relax and quicken is exactly what you want in a stayer of quality. Probably having another run here before attacking Sydney?

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 08/03

    Commemorative
    Randwick
    Feb 15, 2025

    The 0.9 length 3rd in Race 6

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return, just below her +1.0 when narrowly defeated by subsequent Group 1 winner KIMOCHI here over 1100 last prep. -5.0 at the 800, before +5.0 in the mid race - and that 10 length squeeze was the biggest of her career - and she sustained it home with +4.0 last 400. Clarity of her close was the best last 1000 of her career. Lightly raced 4yo, who should be adding to her winning tally this time in with ordinary health and luck.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 08/03

    Alalcadance
    Kembla Grange
    Nov 23, 2024

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 5

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 20th on the day

    Summary

    Imported mare in her 2nd start with Waterhouse Bott and has significantly improved race to race from her first local run Warwick Farm when -6.9 lengths below benchmark. Here shared the lead again going +2.7 at the 800 meaning 7.6 lengths faster race to race! +3.0 in the mid race meant she maintained her fast speed, before the understandable later taper going -1.9 last 400. This is basic BM78 level so any - likely - improvement into the summer staying contests can see her work through her grades.

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick 14/12 Christmas Cup and spelled. First up winner Randwick 08/03 Listed City Stakes

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Aug 24, 2024

    The 2.9 length winner of Race 7

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on thee day

    Summary

    Wow! She was a filly of great promise winning the 1000 Guineas and Arrowfield at her last two starts with +0.4 lengths above benchmark each time, but this was a phenomenal first up leap that says she's immediately a serious Everest contender. -8.5 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead. -2.0 in the mid race was a "cruisey" 6.5 length increase, before a booming +7.5 last 400. This included the best last 600 and 400 of the day, and the rider sitting up late. She's twice previously gone +3 in the first section showing tactical versatility when asked, and is lightly raced and evolving. She's going upwards with only "by how far" the question!

    REPOSTING AS THIS WAS PREVIOUS PEAK RATING BEFORE WINNING NEWMARKET FLEMINGTON 08/03

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.