Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Sandown brief write up and quaddy suggestion for $1. ($28 voucher back on purchase) NOTE MY DOOMBEN FORM NOW AVAILABLE VIA WORD DOC! EMAIL RALPH@ RACETRACKRALPHY .COM.AU
May 17
Doomben now available via email request updated Saturday morning Sandown brief write up for $1 ($28 voucher back on purchase)

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Antino
    Caulfield
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 6.5 length winner of Race 10

    +5.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Astonishing performance to go with the bold tactics from the Blake Shinn ride igniting him in the mid race. At the 800 was going a sound -1.0 length below benchmark but 6.8 lengths from the flying - and overdoing it - leaders. However from there produced a blistering 9.7 mid race squeeze which was genuinely "Winx like" such was the ignition of speed. Last 400 was +1.2 and excellent under the circumstances. This now puts him firmly in the group of elite level milers anywhere in the country.

    Subsequently: Placed Flemington 09/11 then unplaced Hong Kong 08/12. First up unplaced Randwick 19/04 before winner Gold Coast 10/05

    Pride of Jenni
    Caulfield
    Mar 15, 2025

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 6

    +3.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return from this now 7yo star mare, and she's actually produced a new first up PB! (Just from +3.1 in last year's Orr this track over 1400 when beaten a nose by MR BRIGHTSIDE). Here at 1800 just cruised - by her standards! - going +7.1 at the 800. Slowly tapered from there going +2.1 in the mid race, before -2.1 last 400. Of note lost 1.3 lengths from the 400 to 200, before improving 0.9 of a length last 200. Clearly turned up in good health, but the Maher team would be delighted with this (lack of) early pressure. It sets her up to avoid flatness into the Australian Cup where last year she produced +4.5 after a +15.5 first section!

    Subsequently: Unplaced Australian Cup 29/03 then winner Caulfield 03/05

    Oh Diamond Lil
    Canterbury
    Jan 1, 2025

    The 2.4 length winner of race 5

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Comes off a 4.5 length demolition of her Kembla maiden leading in off a soft tempo and producing -3.6 lengths below benchmark, to again controlling the race but this time producing high, sustained pressure. +3.0 at the 800, +2.1 in the mid race, before +3.6 last 400 to smash her previous PB of -2.4 set first up also here at 1200 metres. This is just a BM64 and her 6th career run, so the reality is if she can hold this figure she can keep winning through her grades.

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 18/01 then winner Randwick 08/02. Spelled and resumed winner Scone Carnival 17/05

    Jimmysstar
    Caulfield
    Feb 22, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +3.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    A "Sizzlers regular" who has been stamped as a rising star, and here has delivered his Group 1 win, yet the data is strongly suggesting there's still more to come here shattering his previous PB of +2.2. He settled back in his usual pattern going -2.2 at the 800 when 4.6 lengths from the lead. +3.2 in the mid race meant a 5.6 length squeeze, before +6.4 last 400. Note he was only fully clear at the 200 when a blistering +4.3 last 200. Best last 1000, 800, 600 and the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the day puts further context into his sustained closing speed. He's near the "+4 minimum" for an Everest winner now. 

    Subsequently: 3rd William Reid, 4th TJ Smith, All Aged winner 19/04

    Sunshine in Paris
    Randwick
    Apr 19, 2025

    The 1.3 length 3rd in Race 8

    +2.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Bring on Queensland! 3 runs this time in all at Group 1 level with +2.0, +2.0 and here +2.4, and looks set to match her +3.1, +3.2 and +3.3 best from here. -2.8 at the 800 sitting 3rd line, before +0.9 in the mid race and -1.3 last 400. Did have a sharp 3.8 flat spot did from the 400 to 200, before picking up 1.2 lengths last 200 in isolation under full pressure. While she handles soft ground, she can produce outstanding closing speed on good tracks. Can pick up her 2nd Group 1 from here with ordinary luck.

    Subsequently: Winner 17/05 Doomben 10,000

    Caballus
    Randwick
    Feb 10, 2024

    The 1 length winner of Race 6

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his first up/first start new stable win at Rosehill with -0.8 lengths below benchmark, noting his PB was +0.4 which he was expected to climb to, but instead he has smashed it! -7.7 at the 800, -0.4 in the mid race, before +6.1 last 400. The big key to further confidence going forward is despite winning he lost a length over the last 200. This can also be seen via the 8th best last 400, but just the 21st best last 200 of the day. Clearing +2 looks a realistic goal and that can win him another good race. We look forward to measuring his progress.

    Subsequently: 3rd Flemington in $million sprint and spelled. Didn't come up in spring and then gelded. First up Scone Listed winner 17/05

    Our Diamond Lil
    Randwick
    Feb 8, 2025

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 1

    -2.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled her two starts back when bolting in at Canterbury in a BM64 with an excellent +1.7 lengths above benchmark, before 2nd at Rosehill on wet ground at BM78 level. Here started odds on back to midway company, and didn't only lead throughout untroubled, but the mid race slowdown smothered her opportunity to do more. -0.9 at the 800, before -2.8 from the 800 to 400 and as such losing 2 lengths. Last 400 was -0.5, but note the last 200 in isolation was +1.4 meaning a sharp 3.4 length pick up when asked. So she's got away with a "bit of a bludge" and can definitely win again placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Resumed Scone carnival winner 17/10

    Liberami
    Bendigo
    Apr 12, 2025

    The 2.3 length 3rd in Race 4

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    6th run for the prep, so no improvement to come from his peak of +1.4 set previous start Sandown, but here couldn't have had more things go wrong. Firstly found himself near last going -4.1 lengths below benchmark on a leader/rails advantaged day, and then squeezed 9 lengths with +4.8 from the 800 to 400. His last 400 was +4.3, but the 200 splits revealed a sharp 3.7 length slowdown peeling to the - clear inferior lanes on the day! - centre of the track from the 400 to 200. Then rebounded with the 4th best last 200 of the day! Staying in this BM74 level with better tactics should see him take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 21/04. Winner Flemington 17/05

    Politely Dun
    Caulfield
    Apr 5, 2025

    The 2.3 length 2nd in Race 5

    -5.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 85th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but one that says don't be surprised if he's a "player" in the SA Derby where he is currently $15. Just -24.0 lengths below benchmark at the 800, but then went +7.4 in the mid race. That's a monster 31.4 length squeeze, and importantly he sustained it home with +6.4 last 400. Did lose 0.8 of a length last 200 which is understandable off such a big exertion. Does have to turnaround 2.3 lengths from STATUARIO but this stayer is in just his 2nd prep having shown promise last spring, and further improvement is highly likely in a faster tempo race shape from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 17/05 at $12

    Tavi Time
    Randwick
    Dec 26, 2024

    The nose winner of Race 7

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Has always showed promise, and here in his first 2000 metre start has produced a new PB in this high pressure Group 3. Was going a very solid +5.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800 despite being 5.7 lengths from the lead. +3.9 in the mid race meant he sustained his speed, before -4.8 last 400 despite winning. Can win again in similar summer staying/middle distance stakes races from here. Better drier.

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up 2nd Randwick 19/04. 5th Hawkesbury 03/05 then winner Scone Cup 16/05.

    Sunshine In Paris
    Rosehill
    Nov 2, 2024

    The 1.8 length 2nd in Race 7

    +3.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Hi quality mare who has produced another excellent performance with this +3.3 just eclipsing +3.2 and +3.1 as her next best all time IVR times. +3.4 at the 800 was the fastest she's ever gone first section, yet she was nearly 7 lengths from the (crazy fast) lead! +3.9 in the mid race meant she was the only runner in the first 7 home increasing her speed, before -2.7 last 400 with every runner depleted. That even first 2 sections should assist avoiding flatness at Flemington tomorrow, and particularly if it's the usual "building" speed. Deserves great respect.

    Subsequently: Winner Champions sprint Flemington 09/11.

    Goodlucktome
    Canterbury
    Jan 1, 2025

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 1

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    5th career start, 2nd up, 1st prep as a gelding and after big market support broke though with a maiden win that said he'll be adding to the tally from here. +1.1 at the 800 sitting 2nd line was a 6 length elevation of early speed, before +2.4 and +3.0 last two sections. (Excellent raw time of +6.5 adjusted down for the slick track.) Of note despite winning he lost 2.7 lengths last 200 in elevation which says further conditioning improvement is expected. Anything above benchmark placed conservatively over summer is a likely winning figure.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 08/02 before winning Eagle Farm 01/03 and Doomben 01/04.

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.