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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
March 2
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Manaal
    Rosehill
    Feb 3, 2024

    The 2.9 length 2nd in Race 5

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 18th on the day

    Summary

    Well beaten by star filly LADY OF CAMELOT, but a 3 length improvement from her debut win Randwick 30/09, and one that says she deserves great respect into a 1200 race like the Sweet Embrace Randwick early March? -1.8 at the 800 relaxing 3rd line, +2.9 in the mid race, before +3.4 last 400. She ran the 2nd best last 1000 and the 5th best last 800 of the day.

    Subsequently: Winner Sweet Embrace Randwick 02/03

    Hell Hath No Fury
    Warwick Farm
    Jan 10, 2024

    The 2 length winner of Race 3

    +1.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 4yo in her 2nd prep with Annabel Neasham, and here has smashed her previous PB of -1.9 when stakes placed at Sandown September 2022. At he 800 was stalking the leader going +1.5, excellent mid race move at +5.8, before a late taper going +0.1. Only has to hold this level placed conservatively to win again.

    Subsequently: Winner Warwick Farm 26/01. 3rd Randwick 10/02 then winner Randwick 02/03

    Atishu
    Flemington
    Nov 11, 2023

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 8

    +2.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Won the Matriarch this track/distance/meeting last year with +3.9 in a brutal tempo race shape, but here has collected her first Group 1 with a slightly softer figure but another excellent performance. -0.6 at the 800, +4.2 mid race, and -3.2 last 400. This was on the quick back up from +2.4 in the mile a week earlier. Was narrowly beaten in the Ingham Randwick last year with +3.3, so it will be interesting if they go straight there or choose to spell.

    Subsequently: Spelled then unplaced Caulfield 10/02. Winner Blamey 10/02

    Tropical Squall
    Randwick
    Sep 30, 2023

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 6

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    3rd up, 4th career start and exploded with a new PB from -2.3 to win the Group 1 Flight Stakes thriving by leading throughout under this high pressure race shape. +7.7 at the 800 and +2.7 in the mid race gassed out the chasers. Last 400 was just -3.6 with -2.2 of that the last 200 in isolation. Note on debut 21/06 winning at Canterbury off a soft tempo she produced +7.1 last 400 so her "turn of foot" credentials have been stated. We'd prefer 3 weeks between runs, but she should take beating again from here wherever asked.

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 21/10 before end of prep miss Oaks. First up winner Surround Group 1 Randwick 02/03

    Southport Tycoon
    Moonee Valley
    Jan 27, 2024

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 9

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Super return starting just his 2nd prep extending his PB from +0.7 and 3.7 lengths better than his only other first up run. Here +0.3 at the 800 after being slowly away, an excellent last 2 sections of +3.2 in the mid race and +3.9 last 400, so genuine above benchmark sustained closing speed. He looks set for a new level this time in, and is worthy of consideration as an Australian Guineas contender.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Caulfield 10/02 then winner Australian Guineas 03/02

    Estriella
    Caulfield
    Feb 10, 2024

    The 2 length winner of Race 10

    +0.4 length winner of Race 10

    Summary

    Dynamic return to start just her 2nd career prep, being a dominant winner going 2.5 lengths better than her debut Gosford win and dragging her PB from +0.2 Randwick 1200 July. -1.1 at the 800, +1.9 in the mid race, before +1.8 last 400. The 2nd best last 800 of the day, but note it included a 2.8 length slowdown from the 600 to 400 before the turn. Looks set for a terrific campaign in fillies stakes races. 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 02/03

    Another Wil
    Caulfield
    Feb 10, 2024

    The 3.2 length winner of Race 3

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Extended his PB from first up when +0.3 lengths above benchmark best of the Sandown midweek card 17/01 and there's more to come! First start on genuinely clean ground and in going +1.9 at the 800 improved his early speed by 5.7 lengths race to race. -2.3 in the mid race meant a 4.2 length slowdown, and the real reveal was the last 400. -1.2 overall, but +0.2 from the 400 to 200, then with the race well won only -1.4 last 200 so a 1.6 length taper. That says he's still got conditioning improvement to come, so another length looks a conservative target. Still eligible for BM78 company!

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 02/03

    Storm Boy
    Gold Coast
    Jan 13, 2024

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Didn't just justify his favourite tag in the Magic Millions Grand Final, but stamped himself as the dominant 2yo of the crop to date, and there looks more to come! +3.7 at the 800 was excellent early speed, but then endured a 5.3 length slowdown in the mid race going -1.6. Rebounded hard last 400 with +2.5, including last bit best bit +1.9 last 200 which was the 7th best of the day. +3 to +4 range is a very realistic aim towards his next Grand Final in the Golden Slipper meaning we have a genuine talent.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 02/03

    Storm Boy
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 23, 2023

    The 2.4 length winner of Race 6

    -2.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    (Added 12/01 customers emailed.) We were initially on the fence about including him, but with the fields now out and a low bar likely to be required to win, he profiles superbly and entitled to be the dominant favourite that he is. Apart from the elite Waterhouse Bott "target" trainers, his ability to produce genuine early speed over 1200 here, says he's likely to improve further and take a power of beating. -0.1 at the 800, before +4.0 in the mid race which is super sharp. Dropped away with the race well won going just -3.0 last 400. Strengthening from that is where most confidence lies.

    Subsequently: Winner Magic Millions 2yo Gold Coast 13/01. Winner Randwick 02/03

    Tashi
    Randwick
    Feb 17, 2024

    The 1.7 length 2nd in Race 4

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Won a modest BM78 first up here over 1200 producing just -2.4 lengths below benchmark, but here has improved 2.2 lengths overall, and the big midrace move sets her up to beat her all time PB of +0.6 when best of the day Canterbury in August. -2.0 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +5.8 in the mid race so a near 8 length squeeze. That saw her out closing with just -0.6 with the last 200 in isolation a "gassed" -1.2. In a similar ratings race up to 1500 she can go one better.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 02/03 at $8:50

    Sans Doute
    Flemington
    Dec 20, 2023

    The 3 length winner of Race 3

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    This was an excellent win getting away from the tight turning Moonee Valley circuit, and her overall +0.4 IVR figure compares very well with KATSU in the Listed race later in the day of +0.7. Relaxed going -2.7 at the 800 which was 3 lengths from the lead, +2.2 in the mid race, before +0.6 last 400. Context was the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. Has won three times in NZ over 1200 and looks perfectly suited to stepping to that distance range from here now in the zone.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 20/01. Winner Flemington 02/03

    Redoute's Night
    Sandown Lakeside
    Jan 31, 2024

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 3

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    Has an unusual profile as a 6yo having just his 6th start in his 2nd prep, but after a solid -1.3 length below benchmark 3rd best of the day Cranbourne win resuming 16/01 that included the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, has improved 1.6 lengths in running 2nd here. -0.8 at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead, +5.6 in the mid race meant a strong 6.3 length squeeze, before -1.7 last 400. The last 200 in isolation was just -2.0 meaning a 2.4 length drop off late. This was also seen via the best last 800 of the day, but just the 18th best last 200. This says he can peak fitness wise next start and in similar can return to winning.

    Subsequently: Winner Pakenham 15/02

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.