Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Mornington Cup Day
APRIL 18
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Recon
    Pakenham
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 10

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne for the new stable winning three from three, and a new level after producing +0.9 best of the day at the Mornington Sunday meeting 02/11. Stalked the speed going +1.3 at the 800 which was good pace off a standing start first 400, went +0.1 in the mid race, before +1.9 last 400 so good, sustained speed. This is BM84 level, so at this time of year any improvement - and the small slowdown here said it's most likely - can see him winning again without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced and spelled. Winner Mornington Hareeba 2nd up 18/04

    Jigsaw
    Caulfield
    Mar 21, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 8

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Remarkable tough as teak 7yo who didn't win from April 2023 to October 2025, but since then has won another 5 in a row including a NZ Group 1 "there and back" trip! Here on the 7 day back up from also this track/distance when +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day, he's slightly improved his IVR figure due to the mid part of the track - in the hot lanes on the day - being significantly faster week to week. The three sections were -1.1, +4.5 and +2.5, with the context being just the 24th best last 400 of the day showing how the win was set up with good early speed in the clear slowest part of the track.

    Subsequently: Winner Quokka 18/04

    Jigsaw
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 9

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    All honours! Amazing performance by this 7yo who won this track/distance 2nd up 10/10 with +1.5 lengths above benchmark at the Friday night meeting, and that was breaking a drought back to April 2023. His Cox Plate Day win was +0.1 when leading throughout on his terms, but here has rebounded to a new level not produced since January 2023! +1.5 at the 800, +0.8 in the mid race before a slight late taper of -0.9 last 400. Clearly back in the zone with his old tenacity. Perhaps the Xmas Handicap Sandown from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Group 1 Telegraph New Zealand! Winner Caulfield 14/03 Winner William Reid Caulfield 21/03. Winner Quokka 18/04!

    Beiwacht
    Rosehill
    Sep 27, 2025

    The 4.1 length winner of Race 8

    +4.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Wow! Exploded in this PB to not only a new PB from -0.5, but to a level that has him top of the tree with this 3yo crop, and a potential Everest contender should the stable go there. +4.2 at the 800, before +3.6 in the mid race which is blistering sustained speed. +1.7 last 400 was reflective of the perfect firm ground, but also underlined the performance as he stayed above benchmark in all three sections. He is now at the elite level wherever they go, and however long he keeps racing given his multi million dollar stallion potential. 

    REPOST AFTER ALL AGED GROUP 1 WIN RANDWICK 18/04

    Beiwacht
    Randwick
    Mar 7, 2026

    The 0.6 length 2nd in Race 9

    +2.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Back on track! Resumed at Flemington in the Lightning with a "nothing" -4.2 lengths below benchmark, but here back around a bend and up from the 1000 to 1300 has produced a "serious" figure that has him in touch with his outstanding +4.4 lengths above benchmark Golden Rose win. -4.7 at the 800 leading at a cruisey tempo, before +2.2 and +4.7 last two sections. When leading throughout in the Golden Rose his first section was +4.2 which he backed up with +3.6, so on the data that's where the improvement will come from. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Rosehill 21/06 before winner Group 1 All Aged Randwick 18/04

    Captain Furai
    Rosehill
    Mar 28, 2026

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 4

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Doing a great job working through the grades winning a BM78 two starts back, and BM88 here, but what we learned is he is also a swimmer! An outstanding +12.3 wet track indicator - he did win twice on heavy going winter 2024 when starting his career with a WTI best of +8.1, so this says he continues to evolve. -7.5 at the 800 stalking the lead, before -1.8 in the mid race and +1.5 last 400. Further context via the 4th best last 800, and the 2nd best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. There's a BM100 at Randwick in three weeks also at 1400 and that looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner BM100 Randwick 18/04

    Recon
    Flemington
    Mar 28, 2026

    The 1.7 length 5th in Race 9

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Solid return in both his first 1000 metre run and first on wet ground. -1.7 at the 800, before -2.0 and -5.6 last two sections with the context being the 2nd best last 800 and 600 of the day, but still a strong the 5th best last 400 and 200 of the day. That says he's fit off a short 70 day break which included a sharp jump out, but will be better at 1200 and preferably on clean ground. Peaked last time in with a super strong +1.1 lengths above benchmark sprint win Pakenham Cup Day December, so perhaps the Hareeba at Mornington is an ideal next step?

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Hareeba 18/04

    Kings Valley
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 3 length 9th in Race 8

    -3.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 60th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure to include, but in summary  hidden run, but he couldn't have done more from a non-winning position, and now that he's had this 3rd up run at 2000 metres he's ready to return to the winner's list. -13.1 at the 800 had him 8 lengths from the lead in a race of little change. +1.6 in the mid race meant a super strong 14.7 length squeeze, before a booming +10.4 last 400. Peaked on his run losing 1.6 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. He won 4 races through the grades 2nd preps back, and tapered last time in with two plain runs after a PB of +0.6 at Moonee Valley. He's now spot on and set to test that level.

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Cup. 18/04

    Pounding
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 2.5 length 7th in Race 8

    -2.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 54th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but he settled in a non-winning position in a race of little change and simply couldn't have done more from there. -13.7 at the 800 had him 8 lengths from the lead, before +1.6 in the mid race meaning a 15.3 length squeeze. This was the biggest of his career! Last 400 of +11.5 was easily also the biggest of his career, and even allowing for the firm track that is most significant and says he is in very good order. Now he's had 4 runs from 1200 to 2000 metres, he has a platform to produce his benchmark range best. (Since early 2024.)

    Subsequently: 2nd to fellow Sizzler Kings Valley Mornington Cup 18/04

    Matias
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 6

    -4.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 45th on the day

    Summary

    Despite the modest IVR time, this was a nice win from a lightly raced stayer on the rise with the promise of more to come here elevating from a maiden win at Newcastle to this Group 3. Settled mid field going -7.0 at the 800 when 6.4 lengths from the lead, before -3.2 in the mid race. The last 400 however was blistering with +8.1 including last bit best bit +5.5 last 200 in isolation. Via the Daily rankings he produced the 7th best last 400 and 3rd best last 200 of the day, and his ground made up figure was a very strong 7.6 lengths. This is his 2nd career prep and first as a gelding and he's trending upwards.

    Subsequently: Spelled. 3rd up winner Packer Plate Randwick 18/04

    Wonder Boy
    Rosehill
    Mar 28, 2026

    The 1.8 length 2nd in Race 4

     -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Didn't really come up in the spring, but now had a good foundation of 4 runs, with the last 3 between -1.2 and -1.8 here, but finding a soft tempo race shape that made it hard to do more. Just -9.2 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before -0.8 in the mid race and +0.3 last 400, so a good, sustained close, but it did include a 2 length flat spot slowdown from the 400 to 200. Further context is seen via the 3rd best last 600 and 200 of the day, but just the 6th best last 400. Very solid wet track indicator of +10.7. Placed conservatively in similar here or back to Melbourne looks ideal up to a mile.

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Cup Day 18/04

    Signor Tortoni
    Rosehill
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 3

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne! "Didn't turn up" resuming at Randwick 27/12, but after a sharp trial 15/01 has got straight back into his "winning" profile with -1.5 at Warwick Farm 04/02 ranked 5th of the midweek day, and elevating to a new PB here. -3.0 stalking the lead, before -1.4 in the mid race and +6.3 last 400. Did have the perfect run, but 3rd best last 800, the 2nd best last 600 and 400 and the best last 200 of the day, is impossible to knock. Given this is just BM78 company, a conservative increase in class can see another victory and note wet tracks hold no fears for him.

    Subsequently: 5th then 3rd at Rosehill before winner Randwick 18/04

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.