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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
13th August
Available 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    EASY SINGLE
    Randwick
    Jun 11, 2022

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Resumed with a best of the day performance Flemington but only -0.4 after +1.4 first section, but a very tired -4.2 last 400. This was a total inverse of speed. -5.6 at the 800, -4.2 in the mid race, before out in the best lanes going +4.2 last 400. Best last 800 of the day and the 2nd best last 400 and 200 showed the sustained close. Importantly going back from wide showed he's now got an ability to relax early now. That gives us confidence there's more to come and he should be able to run out 1200 this time in.

    Winner July 30

    WITHOUT THINKING
    Ipswich
    Jun 18, 2022

    the 1.6 length 3rd in Race 4

    -3.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 28th on the day

    Summary

    With an obvious caveat that this is very basic company and he needs to stay in similar, he's ready to win the right race off this 3rd up run, after two "non-events" on very wet ground to start his prep. Settled 6 lengths from the lead going -6.7 at the 800, before benchmark mid race and +0.7 last 400. The micro splits however give more clarity. Lost 4.3 lengths from the 400 to 200 in a savage slowdown, before a solid rebound of 7.5 lengths onto the superior part of the track. +3.5 last 200 in isolation which was the 13th best last 200 of the day at the end of 1666 metres. Last time in produced his PB of +0.7 winning at the Sunshine Coast which was best of the day. That run is again in his scope.

    Winner Eagle Farm 16th July

    THE BIG EASY
    Rosehill
    Jun 18, 2022

    the 1.8 length 5th in Race 6

    -2.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Just ambled out going -10.2 at the 800 when 6.5 lengths from the lead. -1.3 in the mid race  was a sharp 8.8 lengths of improvement, but then really let down with a +6.0 last 400 when finally having clear air. The "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day adds merit, and he came off two bottomless bog heavy tracks leading in. He does handle "just" heavy winning 10th run in this track/distance last July with +1.2 lengths above benchmark best of the day, so now the Maher Eustace stable has him right again, he should take holding out going forward.

    Rosehill 16th July

    WICKLOW
    Rosehill
    Jun 18, 2022

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Very strong 2nd up win off such a long layoff of 336 days for this import in his 2nd local prep and there should be more to come. -6.7 at the 800, -0.9 in the mid race, then +3.8 last 400. However patiently and brilliantly ridden by Bowman he was only clear at the 200 and that in isolation was +3.2 so a very strong close. This matched his best from May 2021 when at Newcastle starting his campaign, but then won twice here over 1800.

    Winner July 30

    CONSCRIPT
    Randwick
    Jul 9, 2022

    the 1.3 length winner of Race 6

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his first up run noting he's a leader who was slowly away before -3.5 lengths below benchmark, but the 2nd best last 600 of the day after going back conceding early. Here he took it up early, but the midrace slowdown in genuinely wet conditions smothered the merit of the win. -9.0 at the 800, -13.6 mid race and -4.1 last 400 with his last 200 "last bit best bit" out of the slowdown -0.9. 5th best last 600 of the day, 3rd best last 400 and 2nd best last 200.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 13/08

    PIZARRO
    Rosehill
    Jul 16, 2022

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Looks set to repeat his 3rd up performance last prep - his first - when winning at Warwick Farm December with +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of a (good track) midweek day and particularly if he can get better ground, though the wet track indicator here was a sound +5.3. Came from -5.0 lengths below benchmark on bottomless ground here over 1100 resuming, to a top ten performance and last bit best bit, note on the firmest part of the track. -10.5 at the 800, -4.9 mid race, before -2.4 last 400. The last 200 in isolation was +0.1. Now fit as seen via the 5th best last 800 of the day, the 3rd best last 600 and the 7th best last 400 and 200 of the day.

    Winner July 30

    LORD ARDMORE
    Rosehill
    Jul 16, 2022

    the 2 length winner of Race 5

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    We were "on the fence" about including him after his sound first up 2nd Randwick over 1300 when -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 8th on the day, noting last prep he went 1400 to the mile - both unplaced - before winning 3rd up with a most sound +0.7 lengths above benchmark over 1900 here on Golden Eagle day. Here 2nd up with 5 weeks between runs he's gone straight to 1800 and clearly very fit with a strong aggressive ride from Bowman who wouldn't concede the lead when taken on. -3.5 at the 800 was good speed in the going, -10.0 mid race was a substantial slowdown, before -3.2 last 400. Climbed out of it with -0.3 last 200. This has effectively matched his PB (+0.8) set at the Gold Coast at the end of his last campaign, and given this is just his 2nd with Waller Ex-NZ strong indications are there's more to come. Loved the conditions with a +8.7 wet track indicator. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 06/08

    KING OF SPARTA
    Gold Coast
    Jan 15, 2022

    the 1.3 length winner of Race 8

    +2.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th on the day.

    Summary

    Matched his best from Randwick in October which was over 1200, so in doing so at 1400 in a high pressure set up, says he's ready to be considered in elite 3yo mile company going forward. +5.3 at the 800 despite being 6 lengths from the lead, before -0.5 mid race and +0.4 last 400. His previous asset is an ability to sustain a big 800 close. That he was able to invert his speed with success is a great sign going forward of tactical versatility. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick and spelled

    Winner Caulfield 23rd July

    FIRE
    Sandown Hillside
    Jul 27, 2022

    the 3.8 length winner of Race 4

    -3.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Last prep he resumed at -2.4 lengths below benchmark when 3rd at Kenso over 1250 before a best of the day win Bendigo when -0.4 over 1100. Then was spelled after pulling up sore Moonee Valley 24/09. While the overall IVR figure was low three points are important: 1/ The best of three 1000 metre races on the day. 2/ Monster mid race anchor drop. 3/ Best last 800 and 600 of the day. Stalked the lead at -0.5 at the 800, before -5.1 mid race which is a major negative. -0.9 last 400, but the last 200 in isolation when winning effortlessly +0.9 so last bit best bit. We look forward to measuring his progress, but beating his PB next start at benchmark range looks a conservative expectation.

    Winner Sandown 20th July

    NICOLINI VITO
    Flemington
    Jan 15, 2022

    the 1.8 length winner of Race 6

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his Sandown win when +1.3 lengths above benchmark best of the mid week day, and here backed it up with a similar performance given he had some traffic that presented him improving early in the straight. +1.2 at the 800 which was 3.3 length from the lead. Benchmark midrace and +1.1 last 400 so overcoming a one length slowdown as a starting point. This is basic BM70 company, so no reason he can't win again.

    Winner Flemington July 16th

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.