Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
December 14
9am Saturday

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Don't Hope Do
    Cranbourne
    Nov 23, 2024

    The 2.1 length 3rd in Race 5

    -2.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return saying he's back on track after a -1.0 on debut Bendigo and a stakes placing MV 2023. Had one run as a gelding May and immediately spelled so clearly not right. Here off two sharp jump outs leading in, had big odds market support, and crushed the line on the tight track. -1.3 and -1.2 in the first two sections settling rearward, before an excellent +6.7 last 400 and +4.8 last 200 in isolation. 3rd best last 800, 2nd best last 600 and the best last 400 and 200 of the day. This is basic BM70 level, so probably only needs a length to find a win from here, and that's a conservative goal. 

    Subsequently: Winner Ballarat Cup Day 07/12

    Light Infantry Man
    Flemington
    Nov 7, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 9

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    (added 22/11 customers emailed.) A comfortable win producing his clear best Australian run from -0.3 at Scone, and here is 4th up first prep as a gelding trending the right way. -1.1 at the 800 stalking the leaders, -1.7 in the mid race and -0.3 last 400. However note via the 200 increments he received a one length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a very strong "last bit best bit" last 200 rebounding by 2.2 lengths racing away. Likely to need another 2 lengths from this to win the Railway and that's most plausible. Deserves great respect.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Railway before winner Group 1 Northerly 07/12 

    Janny
    Ascot
    Nov 23, 2024

    The 0.9 winner of Race 1

    -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 32nd on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR figure in modest grade (!) of no metro wins past year, but with a benchmark PB and this excellent sustained closing win over 1400, there's good confidence there's more to come. After a luckless "no out" run a fortnight earlier, settled going -6.3 lengths below benchmark at the 800 which was nearly 6 lengths from the lead. +3.4 mid race meant a very strong 10 length squeeze, before +6.4 last 400 which included a length slowdown from the 400 to 200. For clarity she closed with the 4th best last 800, 400 and 200 of the day. Is clearly a stronger mare this time in and we expect more to come.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 07/12

    Fire Star
    Rosehill
    Nov 9, 2024

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 9

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne winning three in a row, including Warwick Farm 16/10 when we included him in Sizzlers due to +1.6 best of the midweek card. +0.4 at the 800, before +4.9 mid race. That saw off the competition leaving him in front at the top of the straight when just hanging on closing with -2.7. However note he suffered a 1.6 length slowdown from the 400 to 200 when under a hold, but picked up 1.5 lengths last 200 under full pressure. That says he can rebound back to his "mid 1" range best. Placed conservatively he can continue to win through the grades.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/12

    Berkeley Square
    Caulfield
    Oct 16, 2024

    The 1.8 length 2nd in Race 8

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 20th on the day

    Summary

    Came off three consecutive slow/no tempo runs - winning two of them with a best of -0.8 lengths below benchmark at Sandown - with an even slower one. Just -27.4 at the 800 when 4.5 lengths from the lead, before +0.5 from the 800 to 400 meant a best of the day 28 length squeeze. And he went on with it closing with a booming +10.2 last 400. This included the 2nd best last 600 and 200 of the day and the best last 400 at the end of 2000 metres. He couldn't have done more under this race shape. At Sandown in his lead in he closed with +10.8 last 400. He's airborne and should run very well in the Bendigo Cup.

    Subsequently: 2nd Bendigo Cup, 3rd Queen Elizabeth Flemington, 3rd Sandown Classic then winner Ballarat Cup 07/12

    I'mintowin
    Kembla Grange
    Nov 23, 2024

    The 1.5 length winner of race 6

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    5yo starting his 3rd prep for Waterhouse Bott Ex-NZ who didn't really fire in three wet track runs last prep. Here came to play with market support, and a performance that said this won't be his only win this time in. +2.1 at the 800, before +1.2 mid race and -0.7 last 400. However the 200 increments showed a very sharp 6.9 length slowdown from the 600 to 200, before a big 5.2 last 200 rebound. That says his Australian PB of +0.5 is a very conservative target from here, and given this is only BM78 company, he can work through his grades on good summer surfaces.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/12

    Miss Roumbini
    Caulfield
    Nov 16, 2024

    The 1.5 length 3rd in Race 10

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return from this lightly raced mare starting her 3rd prep by kicking off with a new PB at 1200, but with a "better further" profile. -8.3 and -2.8 in the first two sections on the headwind impact day, before +3.1 last 400 which was the 7th best of the day. Has had limited exposure to dry ground, but there's nothing to say she shouldn't be able to add to her two city wins to date which were in basic June fillies company. This says she's at a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: Winner Ballarat Cup Day 07/12

    Cleo Cat
    Moonee Valley
    Nov 22, 2024

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 3

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the night

    Summary

    Unbeaten mare working her way through the grades winning 2nd up over 1200 at start four in much faster time overall to Ballarat resuming with just -5.0 in a soft tempo 1000. +0.8 lengths above benchmark was good speed, stalking the leaders, before +2.5 in the mid race and -0.1 last 400. When winning with -2.3 and best of the day Terang 23/02, her last 400 was a very slick +3.2. That close is where further elevation can come from here. Placed conservatively can win again.

    Subsequently: Winner Ballarat Cup Day 07/12

    Big Me
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 10, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    2nd up after missing 643 days racing Ex-HK and out-bobbed improving a length from his Flemington run 3 weeks earlier, but we underline he was inside lane disadvantaged and is better on clean ground. -0.9 at the 800, -3.0 in the mid race, before -7.1 last 400 that included losing 1.5 lengths last 200 in isolation. That taper was also seen via the 10th best last 800, but just the 22nd best last 200 of the day. He should peak fitness wise next start and getting away from soft going would be preferred. An above benchmark range run is on the cards and in similar BM74 level that would be very hard to beat.

    Subsequently: Two unplaced runs and spelled. Resumed winning Bendigo 03/12

    Private Eye
    Randwick
    Sep 7, 2024

    The 2.7 length 4th in Race 7

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 23rd in the day.

    Summary

    Just below benchmark, but an excellent return both short of his best trip and out deep in the "nowhere-land" on the day. -4.4 at the 800 was typical of his relaxed style early, before +3.1 in the mid race, and +6.2 last 400. 3rd best last 800, 4th best last 600, but just the 11th best last 200 of the day showing he peaked on his run. +3.3 last 200 compares to +4.7 to +5.7 range. Clearly aimed at the Everest and most likely to have one more run on the way there. A big elevation is expected.

    Subsequently: 3 unplaced runs then winner Rosehill 30/11

    Miss Skyhigh
    Ascot
    Nov 2, 2024

    The 1.3 length 3rd in Race 3

    -4.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day.

    Summary

    Placed in the 1000 Guineas and Oaks March, with her all time best -0.4 set December Belmont 1200, and her autumn best -2.2 lengths below benchmark over 1800 here. Narrowly beaten 18/10 with -3.5 over a mile, and here didn't only come back in trip to 1500, but had an impossible race shape to overcome. -21.1 at the 800 was hurdle speed at the back of the field 5 lengths from the lead. However in going +1.6 she produced a booming best of the day +22.7 length squeeze, and +9.8 last 400 was blistering regardless of lack of tempo. In similar basic company over further should be very hard to stop from winning.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 16/11 winner Ascot 30/11

    Overpass
    Randwick
    Oct 19, 2024

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 6

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    First up specialist he again came to play right in his +2.5 to +3.9 band. Led on his terms going +0.4 at the 800, before +3.5 mid race and -0.4 last 400. Actually lost 1.3 lengths last 200 which strongly suggests he wasn't fully "screwed down". As such Champions sprint Flemington or a defence of his Winterbottom title Ascot looks in play with a strong chance of improvement from here.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 09/11 then winner Winterbottom 30/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.