+2.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 13th on the day
Terrific sprinter who ran better than his usual +2 resuming profile, but below what he did last prep when first up as obviously "screwed right down" to win the Quakka Ascot with his career PB of +3.6. There went +4.3 first section and here -1.3 so much "cruisier". -3.1 in the mid race however meant a negative of a 1.7 length slowdown, before +7.5 last 400. This - due to the inverse race shape - was the biggest closing sprint of his career. This is a great sign going forward that he can use his tactical early speed asset, and be very hard to stop from going one better.
Subsequently: Unplaced Everest before Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes winner Ascot 02/12
-0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day
Came off a best of the day win at Northam bolting in wearing blinkers first time cruising home with the 3rd best last 400 and 200 of the day. Here got out of severe traffic and clearly could have done more than her narrow win with clear air sooner. -6.7 at the 800 before +3.1 mid race so an excellent squeeze of nearly 10 lengths. Last 400 was +5.2, with the last 200 in isolation +3.8 which was the 6th best of the day. Should have no problem with extending from this both distance and class wise with ordinary luck going forward.
Subsequently: Winner Ascot 02/12
-3.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day
Found both a wet straight track and a very soft tempo against him here trying to make it two in a row stepping from 1100 - when winning with +0.1 length above benchmark - to 1200 here. Just -7.0 at the 800 with leader/winner RENOSU cruising at just -4.0. Mid race -2.7 meant only a 4.3 length squeeze with too much to do late. Last 400 closed with +2.3 with the context the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day and the 2nd best last 200. Can rebound hard off this, noting this is only his 3rd run for the prep, which is his first as a gelding.
Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 15/07, unplaced Rosehill 05/08. Resumed winner Rosehill 02/12
+0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day
This is a nice horse! Won three in a row last prep but two were at Taree and Canterbury Friday night before his previous PB when beaten a nose Eagle Farm with -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day over 1820 metres. Here after a run in traffic Kenso when only 7th has dominated. +3.3 at the 800 sitting off a very high pressure race shape, -0.2 in the mid race and -1.2 last 400. Has produced a +4.6 last 400 off a softer tempo and should trend one way with this versatility: Upwards!
Subsequently: Won the Mudgee Cup by 6.5 lengths 1/12
+0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day
3rd up for the new stable and has run a super race in a high pressure Cranbourne Cup that just had him gas out late. +8.3 at the 800 was actually the fastest he's ever gone in a first section! (He does have a lot of wet track form.) -0.8 in the mid race and -2.5 last 400 saw an understandable taper from there including losing 2 lengths last 200 in isolation. Has four performances between +0.7 and +2.0 and looks set to run to that band going forward off this now fully fit. If rain somehow hit that would be a big bonus!
Subsequently: Winner Caulfield Eclipse 02/12
-0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day
Import having his 2nd local run here and is climbing! Improved 1.2 lengths from -2.1 lengths below benchmark four weeks earlier here over 1400, but that was the 11th best of the day compared to the 3rd best on a tough day to run time. What really impressed was a booming mid race squeeze going from -8.0 at the 800 to +1.7 in the mid race, and then virtually sustained it home with +1.1 last 400. In addition suffered a 1.7 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. The context of the close was the 8th best last 600 and 400 of the day and the 4th best last 200. Should be very very hard to beat going forward at this time of year with any (expected) improvement.
Subsequently: Twice unplaced including in the Group 1 Toorak, before winning the Cranbourne Cup 25/11
-1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 35th on the day
This was a hidden run from this import who is clearly at his best in the 1400/mile range. Asked to come back to 1200 off a 77 day freshen he found an outlier race shape where -1.5 lengths below benchmark had him more than 10 lengths from the lead. +1.4 in the mid race and -1.7 last 400 saw him "chase and peak" on his run with the last 200 in isolation just -1.6. Produced a near 10 length mid race squeeze when 2nd in the Winter final and -0.9 overall ranked 3rd on the day. Should elevate from here back up in trip with a conservative beyond benchmark goal, to a new local level.
Subsequently: Unplaced Toorak then winner 25/11 Cranbourne Cup at $18
-2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day
Dual Group 2 winner now a five year old stallion who missed 504 days racing prior to this prep, but now appears ready. Came off -0.5 lengths below benchmark in a high pressure Moonee Valley mile, but the data is now showing he's relaxing better, peaked on his run, and the 2000 range looks perfect from here. (JRA at Moonee Valley???) -3.6 at the 800, +1.2 in the mid race, before +0.4 last 400. The breakdown was +1.3 from the 400 to 200, before just -0.8 last 200. That's a solid 2 length drop off. His best two runs to date have been in high pressure race shapes with the PB of +3.1 when 6th in the Caulfield Guineas.
Subsequently: Unplaced at Group 1 level Caulfield, placed Moonee Valley then winner Flemington 07/11
-2.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 20th on the day
Started favourite for a reason with sharp 1100 data winning three in a row this track/distance June/July from +0.5 to +1.1 range. However he's leader and after jumping awkwardly was "stuck" 2nd line over-racing. -1.9 at the 800, +0.1 in the mid race, before -3.6. That's 5 to 6 lengths below what he's capable of closing speed wise reflecting not being "happy" on the day. His trial lead ins were solid and he can rebound hard in similar.
Subsequently: $7 Winner Kembla Warra feature sprint 25/11
-4.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day
Produced a low IVR figure, but couldn't have done much more under this "outlier" race shape. Just -14.6 at the 800, before a monster 19.2 length mid race squeeze going +4.8, and he maintained his close home going +8.0 last 400 which included +5.4 last 200 in isolation which was the 4th best last 200 of the day at the end of 1800 metres. Has blinkers go into the Kembla gong Saturday, and has him shaping to test his all time PB of +2.7 set at Sandown last December. If so he'll be deep in the finish.
Subsequently: Winner Kembla $1million Gong 25/11
+0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day
Ready! Notionally went backwards from +0.6 lengths above benchmark over 1100 here three weeks earlier, but note that was ranked 18th on the day whereas here on a stronger triple Group 1 day was ranked 11th on a tougher day to run time. -2.9 at the 800, +1.1 in the mid race, then just -3.5 last 400. Again via the Daily Rankings the 20th best last 400 of the day, compared to 6 times in her career running a top 4 last 400 split showed she was short of full fitness and the headwind had an impact. (Four times +4.7 to +7.6 range via the IVR benchmarking.) Looks dangerous in similar next start.
Subsequently: 4th Flemington then winner Caulfield 18/11
-0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day
Lightly raced 4yo who looks a serious talent on the rise, who produced +0.6 when winning on bog heavy ground Randwick at Group 3 level first up April. Here after 140 days away just -3.9 at the 800 reflecting her better further profile, before a good 5 length squeeze going +1.1, and +4.0 last 400. However lost 0.8 of a length last 200. That says fitness elevation to come. Looks very dangerous going forward and particularly if she happens to find a wet track.
Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/10, 3rd Invitational 28/10 then winner Rupert Clarke Caulfield 18/11
After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.
In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this
I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.
Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?
The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.
What don't I provide?
I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.
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