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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
October 12
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Olentia
    Rosehill
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.6 length winner of Race 5

    +1.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Returned with a "dynamic" first up run Randwick 17/02, but missed 5 weeks before her next and the data indicated she was a "bit soft" a week prior to here. Chris Waller backed her up, and she's produced a run that sets her up to take a power of beating in the Group 1 Queen of the Turf next start. -5.8 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead, +1.6 in the mid race, before an outstanding +7.3 last 400. Added context is seen via the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. This was the best closing sprint of her career. Fits the profile of a quality mare from this stable that improves with age.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 13/04 and spelled. Winner first up Rosehill 12/10

    Attrition
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 7, 2024

    The 4.3 length 7th in Race 8

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Didn't come up in two runs last prep, but he's ready for a big spring despite this "hidden" run. -10.6 at the 800 had him 9.4 lengths from winner PERICLES and effectively in a non winning position. However in going +6.7 in the mid race he's produced a monster 17.3 length mid race which was the best of the day. +3.4 last 400 was still slick though an understandable taper. Was beaten a nose in last year's Feehan with +3.0 lengths above benchmark, before winning the Toorak with +2.9. He's set to run to that level from here be it an Underwood, Feehan and/or later a defence of his big mile at Toorak.

    Subsequently: 4th to PRIDE OF JENNI, MR BRIGHTSIDE and ANTINO Moonee Valley 27/09 then winner Rosehill 12/10 at $26!

    Switzerland
    Randwick
    Feb 17, 2024

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 1

    -1.7 length below benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    We're documenting him rather than stamping him as we did with his big debut 3 weeks earlier as it "only" a sideways run matching his IVR figure. -2.2 at the 800, before +0.9 in the mid race. Note this was a 3.1 length squeeze as opposed to a 1.5 length slowdown, leaving him with only a -0.1 last 400. So a brilliant best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day, to a more "workmanlike" win, HOWEVER (!!! yes in caps) we underline that the Golden Slipper is 5 weeks away. We get to measure him again before then, and to state the obvious, Chris Waller is a grand final trainer.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 09/03. Unplaced Golden Slipper and first up Rosehill 14/09. Winner Roman Consul Rosehill 12/10

    Medatsu
    Rosehill
    Aug 3, 2024

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 1

    -4.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 59th on the day

    Summary

    We caveat we want to see him again to get further clarity, but first up 2nd prep with Waller, he's produced a big mid race move and sustained it home off a "walking" tempo, that made running good time an impossibility. Just -17.2 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 6.4 lengths from the lead, but went -0.7 from the 800 to 400. The context was that 16.5 length squeeze was the best of the day. Importantly he went on with it closing with +6.6 last 400. Ran the best last 600, the 2nd best last 400 and the 3rd best last 200 of the day at the end of 1500. That's a good sign of an evolving lightly raced stayer with more wins to come.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 24/08. Unplaced Wyong and Dubbo Cups, before winner Rosehill 12/10

    Medatsu
    Randwick
    Aug 24, 2024

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 4

    -2.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 39th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him 3 weeks earlier labelling him an evolving stayer with more wins to come, despite winning with only -4.4 lengths below benchmark first up Rosehill over 1500 due to his very strong closing speed. Here he's improved 2.2 lengths and given this is only BM78 level there's should still be further upside. -10.9 at the 800 was a 6.3 improvement of early speed, before +0.4 in the mid race, and +1.6 last 400. He also had a 0.8 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, and now has a foundation to cope with a higher tempo race shape if required.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced Wyong and Dubbo Cup, before winning Rosehill 12/10

    Antino
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 27, 2024

    The 2.3 length 3rd in Race 4

    +3.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the night

    Summary

    (Added 10/10 customers emailed) Excellent run chasing established stars PRIDE OF JENNI and MR BRIGHTSIDE and getting near his all time PB of +3.7 Eagle Farm mile Jun 2022) in the process. +1.5 at the 800 but 9 lengths from POJ, +3.2 in the mid race and +6.9 last 400. Raw time was a super slick +11.7 adjusted down allowing for the fast conditions. Just missed in last year's Toorak with +2.7, so he's bang on target again to run boldly. We note Blake Shinn has ridden him four times for four placings and remains on him this Saturday.

    Subsequently: Winner Toorak Handicap

    Jimmysstar
    Caulfield
    Sep 21, 2024

    The nose winner of Race 6

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Booming return from this lightly raced 5yo in his 2nd prep with the Maher stable Ex-NZ and one that said this prep he could deliver on his hype to date. -6.0 at the 800 was reflective of starting his prep at 1100 metres, before +1.0 in the mid race, and +5.3 last 400. The context was the "picket fence" of the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. His career best 400 closing splits have been +5.6, +6.3 and +8.6 over further. This is a new IVR PB for him from +1.8 February here over 1400. That's an excellent sign there's more to come and he can be followed with confidence.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 12/10

    Aviatress
    Morphettville
    Apr 27, 2024

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 1

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    Confidently backed at $1:90 for her return off a 170 day spell to start her 2nd prep, and it was a very good performance with promises of more to come. -2.9 at the 800, -1.4 in the mid race and Benchmark last 400, meant relatively even splits. However we underline that as it was race 1 and as such before the "fence off" reality was obvious, she won well inside the best lanes on the day. Last prep 2nd up produced +0.5 ranked 2nd best of the day in winning here over 1050 metres. There's no reason she can't produce similar next start, and placed conservatively can win again.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 11/05 and freshened. Placed 27/07, 17/08, 4th Caulfield 31/08, then winner Parks 21/09 and winner Caulfield 12/10

    Uncle Bryn
    Caulfield
    Sep 23, 2023

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 8

    +3.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Gee this was a win! Came off two "nothing" runs, but 02/09 did at least produce a 14.3 length mid race squeeze which was the 4th best of Memsie Stakes day. However he's elevated to a new Australian PB and clearly from his +1.4 at Rosehill 05/11 and then a week later +1.3 winning last spring's Cranbourne Cup. +4.5 at the 800 was clearly the fastest he's run since he's raced here, +0.4 in the mid race meant a 4 length slowdown, before picking up again running +3.6 last 400. Ran 2nd in this race last year, but it was on bog heavy ground. (To SMOKIN' ROMANS who then won the Turnbull. Has to be considered a Caulfield Cup contender.

    Subsequently: Unplaced in the Turnbull Stakes and missed 343 days racing. Unplaced first up Flemington 14/09 before winner (@ $61!) Flemington 05/10

    Sunshine In Paris
    Rosehill
    Mar 23, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th best of the day

    Summary

    Just missed - and we underline went back to the slower inside lanes - in a dynamic return after 196 days away. -3.1 at the 800, +1.9 in the mid race, before +5.5 last 400, and the last 200 in isolation a blistering +3.8. The true context is seen via the best last 1000, 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day, showing she turned up very fit. Produced an elite +9.8 last 400 in winning here over 1200 September in her only run last prep and +3.1 overall. We see older elite mares improve ongoing, and at "4 years young" she's very dangerous going forward.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced Group 1 WFA level and spelled. First up winner Rosehill 14/09

    Via Sistina
    Rosehill
    Mar 23, 2024

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 5

    +3.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR time relative to these Group 1 Ranvet runners, but off a literal barrier trial tempo we got to see this mare had a phenomenal WINX like sprint. -22.4 at the 800 when 4.5 lengths from the lead in the small field. From there however it was serious! An amazing mid race squeeze of 25.8 lengths going +3.4, but then increased it it home with +9.7. To produce the 2nd best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day at the end of 2000 metres was elite level. +5.4 last 200 in isolation. Amazing! We pegged her at +6 range on her overseas best, so there's scope for improvement. If she stays fit and well, should take a power of beating in the QE. 

    Subsequently: 2nd to PRIDE OF JENNI Randwick 13/04. Spelled and first up winner Randwick 24/08. Unplaced Makybe Diva 14/09 then winner Turnbull 05/10

    Revolutionary Miss
    Caulfield
    Sep 21, 2024

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 10

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    First up new stable and has matched her all time PB in an excellent return that says she could get to a new level now with Ciaron Maher. -5.2 at the 800, before -0;6 in the mid race, and +0.3 last 400. However this included losing 0.5 of a length from the 400 to 200, and was "stuck" inside in the inferior section of the track. This is her best IVR figure by 2.3 lengths, and 1400 has historically been her best distance. This only adds to the case for her going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 05/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.