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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Caulfield mini-form. Tips, race overviews, speed maps and assessed prices.
July 13
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    In Flight
    Rosehill
    Jun 15, 2024

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced filly who has skipped through bog heavy going - raw time was 22.5 lengths below benchmark! - to produce her 3rd best of the meeting performance, but rising from a previous PB of -1.5 lengths below benchmark to +0.2 here. -8.2 at the 800, -9.6 in the mid race, before -4.7 last 400. Best last 800, and the 3rd best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day showed good, sustained closing speed and that she was very fit. 1200 looks no issue for her and she'll thrive if getting a wet winter!

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 29/06. Winner Randwick 13/07

    Recommendation
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 12, 2023

    The nose 2nd in Race 5

    +1.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return and while traffic/slowdown probably cost him victory - winner was eased up on so it isn't definitive - reality is he's produced a starting point that sets him up to be winning and possibly often. This is within 0.1 of his PB set 3rd up at the end of his last prep, but 3.4 lengths better than what he did first up last time in. -1.8 at the 800, +2.9 in the mid race and +2.2 last 400. However the 200 splits tell a tale losing 1.4 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a sharp 1.9 length rebound last 200. Can produce early speed if asked - COT going back here - and that makes him dangerous going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 09/09. First up next prep 13/07 Caulfield 7 length winner Group 3 Monash

    War Eternal
    Randwick
    Jun 8, 2024

    The nose winner of Race 11

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    With the obvious caveat, that this 5yo missed 532 days prior to this prep which he's returned gelded, this solid performance said the stable has him spot on for more successes this winter. -10.6 at the 800 before a 6 length midrace improvement going -4.5. Last bit best bit -3.6 last 400 with -1.4 last 200 in isolation. His career best is +0.2 set also this track/distance September 2022. That's in his sights from here and at this time of year can see him win again with similar.

    Subsequently: 3rd Rosehill 29/06, then winner Randwick 13/07

    In Flight
    Rosehill
    Jun 29, 2024

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 6

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Absolute "duck" who we sizzled with her previous start when a +0.2 length above benchmark best of the day PB here two starts earlier on bog heavy ground, and has backed it up a fortnight later with a very similar performance. -7.7 at the 800 when 3 lengths from the lead, -5.5 in the mid race, before +1.4 last bit best bit over the final 400. Did suffer a sharp 2.6 length slowdown from the 600 to 400 as well. In the zone and off this very basic class can keep winning.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/07

    Contemporary
    Hawkesbury
    May 4, 2024

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 10

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    (added 24/05 customers emailed) Returned with market support, and produced a new PB from -0.3 set at Rosehill last November, and has smashed his previous best ever first up run from -3.4. Cruised midfield in a fast run 1100 going +0.1 at the 800, before +1.7 mid race and +3.6 last 400. Did have a slight slowdown of +0.8 of a length from the 400 to 200. Profiles very well for tomorrow at Doomben with Nash Rawiller sticking and should be very competitive.

    Subsequently: (Didn't run Doomben 25/05) Winner Randwick 06/07

    Shezanalister
    Warwick Farm
    Jan 26, 2024

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 7

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Typical of the stable this mare has evolved from "out wide" meetings, here 2nd up start number 11 with a new PB noting she has a lot of wet track form on her CV. -1.5 at the 800 stalking the lead, +1.4 in the mid race and +1.8 last 400. Did have a 0.8 length slowdown from the 400 to 200 so there's scope for further improvement. This is BM72 grade and placed conservatively can win again.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 10/02. Unplaced and spelled Rosehill 24/02. First up winner Randwick 06/07.

    Punch Lane
    Caulfield
    Feb 3, 2024

    The 2.7 length winner of race 5

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Got the perfect run, but produced an all time PB by a length on adjusted IVR data - down from +4.7 raw on the firm track - but the dominant win says he can repeat going though his classes from this BM70. +1.1 at the 800 was good speed and much faster than Sandown previous start (-6.6) before +0.8 mid race and +2.8 last 400. The even splits should ensure he avoids flatness if asked to back up within a fortnight.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 17/02 and spelled. Brisbane placed Doomben 29/05 and 12/06 before winner Sunshine Coast 06/07

    Berkshire Breeze
    Flemington
    Jun 8, 2024

    The 4.8 length winner of Race 4

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Import in his 2nd local prep and we can label him a stayer on the rise with this dominant performance. Won in similar fashion at Cranbourne 36 days earlier when -2.2 lengths below benchmark winning over 2025 metres, and here has improved overall despite stepping to 2520 metres. Cruised early going -7.2 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead, before picking up with an excellent 10.2 length squeeze going +3.0 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +4.6, but note he lost 1.3 lengths last 200 in isolation with the race won. Clearing benchmark looks a conservative aim and we look forward to tracking his progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 06/07

    Right To Party
    Flemington
    Jun 8, 2024

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 7

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled her from a narrow defeat in SA when -0.2 lengths below benchmark, and while she's slightly regressed IVR wise despite winning, her inability to quicken in traffic prior to the 250 metre mark has us confident there's more to come. -0.5 at the 800 sitting midfield, +0.8 in the mid race, before -1.7 last 400. Actually lost a sharp 3 lengths from the 600 to 200, before a length rebound last 200. Looks set for the Creswick over 1200 from here and should be ideally suited. Has an all time best last 400 of +6.3 and a best wet track indicator of +7.5 should the weather turn.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 06/07

    Cottee
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 15, 2024

    The 1.8 length 4th in Race 1

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Mare who was out-graded in a strong Listed mile, but produced her 2nd best ever IVR performance from +0.7 when winning at the Sunshine Coast April 2023. At the 800 was +2.0, before +2.3 mid race and +1.7 last 400 showing good speed efficiency. Did win at here over a mile last October closing with a booming +7.4 and +5.3 last two sections. While off a very slow lead speed and a modest IVR time of -3.7, that best last 800 and 600 of the day run strongly suggests, she's got the talent to improve further. Looks very well suited now 4th up and particularly if back against her own sex.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 29/06

    Highlights
    Sandown
    May 25, 2024

    The one length 2nd in Race 7

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: Woeful tactics here with an on-pace horse going back in a race where leader/winner PUDDING was gifted a barrier trial tempo (-19.1 lengths below benchmark) lead. HIGHLIGHTS conceding nearly 4 lengths was going -23.8 at the 800. In the mid race it improved to +2.6 meaning a monster 26.3 mid race squeeze. While that's doable for most runners this class, importantly he went on with it going +7.9 last 400 that including the 7th best last 200 of the day at the end of 1800. That should not happen and only can if too much too late. His PB is +0.1 and can eclipse that tomorrow at Caulfield with a smarter ride.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Caulfield 01/06, unplaced Randwick 08/06 then winner 29/06 Rosehill $16

    Miss Roumbini
    Sandown
    Jun 15, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 3

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Solid 2nd up winner after good market support, and given the ease of the win, the slowdown, and that this is only BM70 level, she's set up to win again. +3.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 when 3.2 lengths from the lead, -0.7 in the mid race, before -4.0 last 400. Note lost 1.2 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a 1 length rebound late which was the 2nd best last 200 running away. This was a length better than Pakenham 1st up when beaten a half length and the 2nd best of the day. Can relax in the run, so 1400 or possibly a mile looks no concern.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 29/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.