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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Morphettville Sangster Day
April 25
Posted 8:15am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    El Rocko
    Moonee Valley
    Mar 22, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 4

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Just missed 4th up after "not much runs" back on his preferred ground, and while he also got the rails in running favours, he's produced his 2nd best all time IVR figure (+0.6 PB). -4.6 at the 800, before +1.0 mid race, and -3.7 last 400. Lost 1.1 lengths last 200 in isolation suggesting he peaks fitness wise from here. Won three races last prep at starts 8, 10 and 11 and has multiple wet track indicator figures of +6+. Looks set for a terrific "off season" and particularly if rain continues to hit.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Bendigo on firm ground 12/04 then winner Moonee Valley 26/04 back on soft

    Step Aside
    Rosehill
    Feb 22, 2025

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 3

    -1.1 length below benchmark

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo who didn't come up in Melbourne last prep, but after losing the rider first up, and running an OK -3.2 here with blinkers back on 3 weeks earlier, he's elevated a solid 2 lengths with a dominant win in BM78 company that says he can repeat placed conservatively. -9.2 at the 800, before +0.8 in the mid race so a solid 10 length squeeze. Last 400 was +3.3 and last bit best bit +2.1 last 200 in isolation. Has a PB of +0.2 and looks set to run to that from here.

    Subsequently: Freshened and winner Randwick 26/04

    Elouyou
    Moonee Valley
    Mar 22, 2025

    The 1 length winner of Race 3

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Honest/consistent lightly raced 5yo, who resumed at Flemington with his only poor/unplaced run in his 10 start career in his first run up the straight. Here despite getting the rails on-pace bias "favours", he's won his 4th start - in basic BM78 grade - with a sound performance with the data strongly suggesting more to come. -2.8 at the 800, before -4.3 mid race while leading. Last 400 was -1.3, but the increments show +1.2 from the 400 to 200, before -2.5 last 200. That's a significant 3.7 length late drop off. 4th best last 400, but 9th best last 200 also shows the gas out. His PB sits at benchmark and he can handle wet ground with a +6.1 WTI.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 26/04

    King Zephyr
    Sandown Hillside
    Mar 5, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 8

    +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo on the rise who made it two easy wins from two starts this time in, elevating from -2.9 at Pakenham over 1200 ranked 11th on the night. Here -0.1 at the 800 when 4.4 lengths from the lead, before a solid mid race move going +7.5 from the 800 to 400. Closed with +1.1 losing 0.6 of a length last 200 in isolation. That strongly suggests more to come. This is basic BM64 level, and at this time of year rising to Saturday class in the BM78-84 range if asked should be no issue. 

    Subsequently: Winner 26/03 Sandown, then winner Flemington 25/04

    King Zephyr
    Sandown Hillside
    Mar 26, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 8

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne with three dominant wins from 3 starts this time in and he most probably isn't finished yet! Came off his booming +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day win here 3 weeks earlier, but did so with a bludge! -5.0 at the 800 was 5 lengths slower first section race to race. Closed with +4.4 and +4.9 last two splits which included the 4th best last 600 and 400 of the day and the 3rd best last 200 winning easily. This is only BM70 grade, and our conservative call is his much better than this! We look forward to tracking his progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Anzac Day Flemington

    Winsomelosemore
    Flemington
    May 18, 2024

    The 1.3 length winner of race 5

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo who justified the heavy market support with a solid win, and a new PB from -1.9 when winning first up on the SA Parks track over a 1000 metres. -4.9 at the 800 sitting midfield, before -1.2 and -1.0 last 2 sections. Did lose 0.5 of a length last 200 in isolation, and this was also seen via the best last 800 of the meeting, but just the 6th best last 200. Can cruise past benchmark from here, and given this is just BM70 level, if he does, it's a likely repeat winning performance placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced and spelled. First up Flemington 25/04 winner. 

    No Fuss
    Sandown Hillside
    Mar 26, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 4

    +3.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Horse on the rise who we sizzled from his lead in win first up 26/02 when -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day, but here in a much faster race shape, stated he might be stakes level despite it being "only" a BM70. +4.8 and +4.9 first two sections chasing a "flying" leader was 8.5 lengths faster first section, and still 6 lengths faster first two sections combined. Tapered with -0.4 last 400, but had the race well won and suffered a 2.2 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. We look forward to tracking his progress, but he's heading to Saturday at very least!

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 25/04

    Liberami
    Sandown Hillside
    Mar 26, 2025

    The 2.3 length 2nd in Race 4

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Airborne but luckless bumping into "Saturday" (at least) horses KING ZEPHYR last start and here NO FUSS and this time smashed his PB from -0.4 in doing so. +1.9 at the 800, before +7.1 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was an understandable taper going -1.6. At time of writing is entered for Bendigo 12/04 and in his right class there - and hopefully without another "monster climber" - can go one better with ordinary luck.

    Subsequently: (Luckless!) 3rd Bendigo 12/04 then winner Sandown 21/04

    Pisanello
    Rosehill
    Mar 15, 2025

    The 0.4 length 3rd in Race 7

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing sprinter who just missed as heavily backed favourite on resumption, but has produced a PB despite having an unfavourable race shape. That says he's still going one way: Upwards! -6.7 at the 800 had him 4.5 lengths from leader/winner EAGLE NEST who was cruising. +2.2 in the mid race meant a solid 9 length squeeze, before a very solid +7.7 last 400. That his last 200 was +4.7 said too much too late. Looks set for a new level again this time in, and should be able to plot his way through quality Group 3 and Group 2s.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 29/03. Winner Canterbury 21/04

    Liberami
    Bendigo
    Apr 12, 2025

    The 2.3 length 3rd in Race 4

    -2.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    6th run for the prep, so no improvement to come from his peak of +1.4 set previous start Sandown, but here couldn't have had more things go wrong. Firstly found himself near last going -4.1 lengths below benchmark on a leader/rails advantaged day, and then squeezed 9 lengths with +4.8 from the 800 to 400. His last 400 was +4.3, but the 200 splits revealed a sharp 3.7 length slowdown peeling to the - clear inferior lanes on the day! - centre of the track from the 400 to 200. Then rebounded with the 4th best last 200 of the day! Staying in this BM74 level with better tactics should see him take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 21/04

    Sandpaper
    Randwick
    Feb 15, 2025

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 4

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Get him away from YORKSHIRE! Has run 2nd twice in his last two starts to that promising galloper, but this 5yo in his first prep with the on fire Baker stable just needs to rebound to his +0.1 to +0.7 level he produced 1st and 3rd up to be a very strong chance of going one better in similar. +1.0 at the 800 was 4.5 lengths slower than his previous start strongly suggesting he was slightly flat on the 14 day back up. +0.4 in the mid race before -1.0 last 400. Would be no surprise if they bring him back to 1400, and possibly with a 3-6 week break? 

    Subsequently: Winner Newcastle 1400 Group 3 March 7. Rosehill 5th April 1 then winner Randwick 19/04

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Apr 6, 2025

    The 1.5 length 4th in Race 7

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    In summary: Bring on 1400! Won the Oakleigh Plate first up with a blistering PB of +3.4 length above benchmark, but in having a 1200 run on the poorly presented wet track at Moonee Valley just a fortnight prior to this, the data strongly suggests it sapped any pure speed out of his legs here. Just -7.2 at the 800 had him 6 lengths from the lead. However +2.0 from the 800 to 400 meant a quality 9.3 length squeeze, before a booming +8.6 last 400. This outstripped his Oakleigh Plate close by 2.2 lengths and for further context was the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day.

    Subsequently: Winner All Aged Stakes 19/04

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.