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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Ballarat Cup Day
December 6
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Tuned
    Rosehill
    Nov 8, 2025

    The one length winner of Race 8

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return producing a new PB by this lightly raced 4yo now gelded after not coming up last prep, but showing promise as a younger horse winning 3 of her first five starts with a previous level at -2.1 best of the day Hawkesbury November 2024. Stalked the lead going -3.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before a solid 7.7 length move going +4.3 from the 800 to 400. Tapered from there despite winning with +1.5 last 400. This was also seen via the 12th best last 800 of the day, but just the 37th best last 200. Placed conservatively from this BM78 company can win again without surprise. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Kembla 22/11. Winner Rosehill 07/12.

    Holymanz
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.9 length 3rd in Race 8

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    There was communication from the stable and big odds market support to say he was ready to run a big race 2nd up, and he certainly did with an IVR figure just below his all time PB. He coped with early speed and a mid race slowdown as well going +2.1 at the 800, -1.6 in the mid race, before a +2.7 last 400 late pickup. His glimpse for this run was first up Derby Day when -1.4 lengths below benchmark, but with an excellent +5.5 last 400, which bar one performance off a "walking" tempo is the absolute outer reach of his capacity. Proven at holding his form once he finds it too.

    Subsequently: Winner Werribee Cup 07/12

    Grid Girl
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 4

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo who has always shown glimpses of talent, but this time in may be set for a new level. Resumed Kyneton Cup Day 05/11 with a 2nd best of the day 8 length win on heavy ground adjusted up to -5.2 lengths below benchmark, but the best last 200 of the day running away. Here +2.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 set up the win with quality speed, before -1.2 in the mid race meaning a 3.6 length slowdown, and a +0.5 last 400 all of which was over the last 200. This is a new PB from -1.1 set at Ballarat 3rd up over 1400 last prep, so she should have more wins in store this prep trending upwards.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/12

    Hawker Hall
    Kembla Grange
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Turned up as favourite to start his 2nd full prep off two sharp trials as favourite with a previous PB of -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day Gosford mid June. Here -1.5 at the 800, before +3.0 in the mid race and +2.1 last 400. Track was starting to give out, so barrier 1 was at best no advantage and most probably a negative. He's only failed twice to date with one being at 1300 end of distance and the other on bog heavy ground, and this performance strongly suggests he's a stronger horse this time in. Looks set for success this summer and highly likely to add to his 3 career wins to date.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/12

    Black Ora
    Ascot
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 0.4 length 3rd in Race 7

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market going down narrow as odds on favourite, but the data strongly suggests it was due to the speed being out of her legs 3rd up and staying at the pure 1000 metre short course on the fortnight back up. -2.8 at the 800 was a 2.8 length improvement of speed race to race, before +0.9 in the mid race and +3.4 last 400. This compared to her booming +2.2 and +6.5 last two sections in her lead in. That included the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, whereas here it was the 5th best last 800 and 600, and the 9th best last 400. As such 1200 or at least 1100 range looks ideal.

    Subsequently: 3rd Ascot 15/11 then winner Ascot 06/12

    Cosmic Crusader
    Ascot
    Nov 15, 2025

    The 0.3 length 3rd in Race 10

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market - again - being beaten at odds on - again - but he's produced his all time best IVR figure, and looks set to break through with ordinary luck this Saturday in the Carbine assuming he misses the start in the Railway. -7.9 at the 800 stalking the soft tempo lead pack, before +1.4 in the mid race and +5.5 last 400 when only having full momentum over the last 200. That +4.1 was the 12th best last 200 of the meeting. His 8.5 length demolition at Belmont was on the quick back up 20/09, and there his overall figure was -0.9 best of the day, but with a 16.5 length mid race and +5.1 last 400. More to come.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 22/11. Winner Northerly 06/12

    Cosmic Crusader
    Ascot
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 2.6 length winner of Race 6

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo who won his 3rd race for the 5 run prep in this his first for the new stable and remains on the rise. -1.3 at the 800 was a 6.4 length improvement of early speed from a week earlier, before -0.3 in the mid race and +5.7 last 400. 4th best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, before the 15th best last 200 losing 0.6 of a length late with the race won. He's got tactical versatility, and looks set to run very well in the Northerly and/or Gold Rush from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Northerly 06/12

    Caballus
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.1 length 5th in Race 6

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    Huge first up run after completely conceding early, but closing with the best last 800, 600 and 400 of Everest day! Just -6.0 at the 800 when 9.2 lengths from the lead and effectively in a non-winning position. +2.9 and +7.0 last two sections though was an excellent sustained close, and note he peaked on his run at the 200 losing 2.8 lengths late. His all time PB is +1.4 produced when a colt, but his only previous run as a gelding was May at the Scone carnival with +0.6 lengths above benchmark win which included a booming +8.8 last 400. Should take a power of beating from here if in the strike zone early.

    Subsequently: Winner Derby Day Flemington 01/11. Unplaced Flemington 8/11 heavy track then winner George Moore Doomben 06/12

    Touchdown
    Caulfield Heath
    Nov 12, 2025

    The 3.3 length winner of Race 5

    -1.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Young horse on the rise whose debut at Cranbourne was in a blistering maiden when 2nd over 1400 early May producing +1.1 lengths above benchmark. Resumed at deep odds on Sale with an easy win, clocking an adjusted IVR time of only -5.5 lengths below benchmark, but +4.1 last 400 which was the 5th best of the meeting at the end of 1411 metres doing all that was required. "Got lost" at Ballarat conceding the leader/winner 7.3 lengths at the 800, before producing a monster 13.2 length squeeze. Here +0.4 at the 800, -1.9 in the mid race and +0.4 last 400 running away. Should sail past benchmark from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield Heath 03/12

    Aviatress
    Caulfield
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 3

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne coming off best of the day SA Parks track win three weeks earlier when producing a new PB of +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day, to here extending her level with a dominant on pace performance. Did have the perfect race shape and conditions to suit in sharing the lead going just -1.1 and -0.4 first two sections, but her +4.8 last 400 was an excellent turn of foot that included the 3rd best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 of the day. Did only have a short 77 day break between preps so has effectively been racing since April, so is this her current best? Either way is clearly currently thriving.

    Subsequently: 4th Flemington 05/24 and spelled. Resumed winner Morphettville 29/03. REPOST CAULFIELD 29/11 GROUP 3 WINNER

    Yorkshire
    Rosehill
    Feb 1, 2025

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 10

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Came here at deep odds on after an easy but modest time Wyong win when -2.2 lengths below benchmark. There he stalked a soft tempo, whereas here in going +1.8 at the 800 he was 5.6 lengths faster race to race, but still 3.7 lengths from the flying leader. +0.9 in the mid race, before +3.6 last 400, including +2.4 last 200 racing away with "last bit best bit". He's smashed his PB from benchmark, and has stated that he's trending upwards in a big way. This is BM88 company, and stakes racing looks his next step.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 15/02. Spelled. Unplaced Newcastle resuming 15/11 before winner Group 3 Rosehill 29/11

    Aviatress
    Caulfield
    Nov 15, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Produced her PB this track/distance 2024 Caulfield Guineas Day when a blistering +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the elite card, but what's noticeable now in the data is she's relaxing in her races. -5.0 and -3.6 first two sections, before a booming +5.9 last 400 including +3.2 last 200 which was the 3rd best of the day. In SA previous start 13/09 her close included +8.0 last 400 and the 2nd best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. Maybe the 1400 Testa Rossa here in a fortnight next?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 29/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.