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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
May 16th
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Bev's Nine
    Rosehill
    Jan 17, 2026

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 9

    Benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Remains unbeaten making it four from four with this first up win, and has dragged his adjusted IVR best up from -2.4 in doing so. Stalked the lead going -3.6, before -6.5 in the mid race, but a big lift when asked out of the slowdown with -3.8 last 400. The last 200 was the 5th best of the day and that closing strength gets an extra tick given this was his first run out of the "1000 metre bubble" and he did so resuming. We look forward to seeing what he can do on clean ground as he works through the grades.

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury 27/02. Spelled. Resumed 2nd at Hawkesbury 02/05 then winner Scone 16/05

    Western Empire
    Ascot
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 9

    +1.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Cracking veteran still racing at his high level, elevating from +0.3 first up when coming off just a -17.7 first section. Here improved his early speed 17.5 lengths in going -0.2 at the 800, before -1.8 mid race and +4.1 last 400. Note was put 2nd line from the inside barrier due to the way the track was playing on the day with the tailwind in the home straight, compared to his usual midfield spot. Further improvement into the Northerly is likely, but the caveat is that some flatness can't be ruled out at this stage of his career, and he hasn't produced a big IVR figure beyond a mile since 2021. That could be circumstantial!

    Subsequently: 3rd Northerly 06/12 and unplaced Gold Rush 13/12 and spelled. First up Belmont Group 3 winner 16/05.

    Middle Earth
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 25, 2025

    The 1.8 length 3rd in Race 5

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 12th on the day

    Summary

    Back on track! Won his first Australian start with +0.1 Flemington March 2000 metres in a soft tempo where unleashing a brilliant +7.1 last 400 with +4.9 just the last 200 in isolation. Gave a hint of that this time in with -0.4 back there in the Turnbull where producing a booming +25.4 length mid race squeeze which was the 2nd best of the day, but in a race that effectively "started" at the 800 where he was out the back and out of play. In the contrasting brutal Caulfield Cup he had to go 19 lengths faster early when just -4.0. Here -3.1, +5.1 and +2.9 meant a solid, sustained chase. Ready to run boldly in the Melbourne Cup.

    Subsequently: 3rd Melbourne Cup at $8 the place! 2nd up Doomben Group 3 Winner 16/05

    Cigar Flick
    Randwick
    Jul 26, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 8

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Quality mare with a big finishing burst, but a get-back style that sees her having won just 5 races from 26 starts often finding traffic and race shapes against. Here the planets aligned on a very wet track where getting wide off the fence was A1 which elite rider Tommy Berry executed. -4.0 at the 800 was OK speed, but she was 4.2 lengths from the lead. -3.7 in the mid race and -8.1 last 400. Best last 800 of the day and the 2nd best last 600 showed the sustained nature of her close. Her all time PB is +1.7 winning at Eagle Farm June 2024. Is only 4th up here, and if she gets luck and avoids traffic going forward she can win again.

    REPOST AFTER DOOMBEN WET TRACK LISTED WIN 16/05/26

    Losesomewinmore
    Flemington
    Aug 2, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 4

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne! Brought up his 3rd straight track win for the 5 run prep, making it 4 in total up the straight and virtually matched his best of the day +0.3 here a fortnight earlier over 1000 metres. Here stepping back to 1100, was going -6.7 at the 800 and that had him conceding 5.6 lengths to the leader/runner up. -0.3 in the mid race was a good 6.4 length move, and he sustained it by producing a booming +7.7 last 400. That's actually the biggest sprint of his career, and it was the 4th time he's produced the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day. Certainly showing no signs of tapering yet!

    Subsequently: Spelled and missed 266 days racing. First up unplaced Morphettville 25/04 then winner Flemington 16/05

    Wonder Boy
    Mornington
    Apr 18, 2026

    The 2 length winner of Race 6

    -4.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 48th on the day

    Summary

    "Won with a bludge" and it was the perfect slow tempo set up to recover from a solid Rosehill run when -1.8 lengths below benchmark when 2nd to in the zone CAPTAIN FURAI. Just -13.5 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 6 lengths from the lead, before -1.9 in the mid race. However the "let rip" +6.2 last 400 was excellent to win running away on top of the 8 length ground made up figure. His PB is -0.8 which looks a conservative target, and given he won last year's Bendigo Guineas, a return to that circuit for their Golden Mile looks a logical next step.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Bendigo Golden Mile 02/05 then winner Flemington 16/05

    Zakouma
    Flemington
    Mar 28, 2026

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 5

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 14th on the day

    Summary

    Emerging stayer who is now 3 from 3 this prep, and just keeps conceding big starts but winning arrogantly! -9.8 at the 800 was 8.6 lengths from the lead, before a strong 8.2 length mid race squeeze - clear biggest in the race - going -1.6 from the 800 to 400. He sustained his close with +0.4 last 400 that included the 6th best last 200 of the day at the end of 2000 metres. His ground made up figure was 11.1 here, after +11.3 at Caulfield Heath and +12.1 at Sandown. His PB to date is -0.3 but that looks circumstantial. Given this is just BM84 he most probably hasn't finished winning and we look forward to tracking his progress.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 25/04 then winner Andrew Ramsden Flemington 16/05 

    Concord Connie
    Flemington
    Apr 25, 2026

    The 6 length winner of Race 2

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Wow! A benchmark 70 for fillies, but this obliteration 2nd up 3rd career run says she's a serious horse on the rise. -2.4 at the 800 had her 4.4 lengths off the lead settling at the rear in the compact field. -0.2 in the mid race before a blistering +7.2 last 400. Further context via the 2nd best last 800 and 600 of the day, and the best last 400 and 200. At Pakenham first up her IVR figure was just -4.7, but there she also let down with the 2nd best last 600 and best last 400 of the meeting, with a last 400 of +7.6 lengths above benchmark. She's a "no ceiling" runner at this stage and we look forward to measuring her progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 16/05

    Athanatos
    Caulfield
    Mar 14, 2026

    The 2.8 length 3rd in Race 3

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    Returned with the perfect "loom and fade" fitness building over 1400 first up. -5.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when stalking the lead, before +3.4 from the 800 to 400. That's a very strong 8.8 length mid race. Closed with a tapering +0.2 over the last 400, but the breakdown was +1.7 from the 400 to 200, but just -1.4 last 200 in isolation so a 3 length loss which we put down to conditioning. Peaked last prep with an excellent +1.8 length above benchmark 4th in the Group 1 Toorak, and won a Group 3 at the Adelaide carnival over 2000 after his previous best of -0.3. Looks set for a successful prep. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Victoria Handicap 04/05, unplaced Flemington Anzac Day then winner $500,000 Coast Gosford 09/05

    Sunshineinmypocket
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 26, 2025

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 1

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo with a +0.2 length all time best, and a high chance his best is still in front of him, as returned with an excellent performance despite the modest IVR figure due to the slow tempo race shape. -3.8 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead was typical of his "likes to relax" profile, but then "didn't move" going -3.9 in the mid race. This included a 1.6 length slowdown from the 600 to 400. However his booming +4.9 last 400 with +4.6 of it just the last 200 - the 2nd best last 400 and best last 200 of the night - said he couldn't have done more under the circumstances. Benchmark is a conservative target from here.

    REPOST AFTER FIRST UP WIN GOLD COAST 09/05

    Athanatos
    Caulfield
    Apr 4, 2026

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 9

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Has a booming PB of +1.8 lengths above benchmark when 4th in the elite Toorak Handicap last prep 4th run in here over a mile, and this run has progressed him big time from -2.9 same track/distance 3 weeks earlier. +1.8 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was 3 lengths from the lead, and had him going 7.2 lengths faster race to race. +3.7 in the mid race and +3.0 last 400 showed a very strong and sustained chase, but note he lost 1.4 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. That's a great sign that a conditioning peak is to come from this. 1600 looks perfect here or in SA. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 25/04 then winner $500,000 Gosford 09/05

    King Of Roseau
    Randwick
    Feb 28, 2026

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Underrated sprinter who we sizzled when winning Magic Millions day with +0.5 lengths above benchmark, and her has now eclipsed his +1.3 PB set at Flemington last August. -2.7 at the 800 when 6.8 lengths from the lead in a fast tempo race shape, before +3.6 in the midrace and +2.7 last 400 showing his capacity to sustain a closing 800 chase. Should continue to be very hard to beat in Group 2 range sprints through the carnival, though we note is better on clean ground.

    Subsequently: Freshened then winner Gosford 09/05 Takeover Target

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.