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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
June 28
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Reset the Jazz
    Mornington
    Apr 19, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 3

    -3.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    Back on track! The obvious caveat is he's missed two chunks of racing being 460 and 473 days, but he's a good talent when right winning Geelong and Ballarat Cup days 2023, peaking with +0.2 in the former, and a wet track indicator of +8.5 in the latter. Here -6.0 at the 800 when leading, before +2.9 and +3.5 last two sections. The context is these are the best last two sections he's produced. As a fast one-pacer who can produce good early speed when fit, he should be very hard to get past from here.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced (and very poor) Caulfield and Sandown before freshened. Returned Pakenham winner 30/06.

    Zou Sensation
    Moonee Valley
    Nov 29, 2024

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the night.

    Summary

    Has returned very strongly from a 63 day freshen after just two runs suggesting it was some kind of - minor - setback. -4.3 Geelong Cup Day when 3rd in a race impacted by a big mid race slowdown, before -2.5 winning Kyneton Cup Day ranked 2nd at the meeting, and here producing a new PB. Clearly he thrives here with his two previous best runs also this track with -0.6 and -0.7 earlier this year. -4.8 at the 800 stalking the leaders who were going a modest tempo, but +4.5 in the mid race and +4.6 last 400 was very strong and sustained. 6th best last 800 of the night, 3rd best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 running away. More to come!

    Subsequently: 0.3 length 2nd Caulfield 14/12 before two poor QLD runs and spelled. 1st up 5th Caulfield 10/05 before winning Caulfield 28/06

    Yellow Sam
    Caulfield
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 5.4 length 9th in Race 3

    -3.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 47th on the day

    Summary

    Up front we aren't stamping her, but she worthy of including on her benchmark when right best, having an impossible race shape here when the on-pace winner was dominant, and has a sharp 2nd up record. Just -6.1 at the 800 effectively had her out of play early, but then -1.8 was a sound 4.3 length move in the mid race, before a booming +6.2 last 400. Context is seen via the 7th best last 800 of the day, and the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. This also says she turned up fit, so perhaps they'll target Geelong Cup Day having won at their standalone meeting January? Or Moonee Valley 2 day carnival??? Keep a watch on her!

    Subsequently: Winner Bendigo Cup Day 30/10. Spelled and first up winner Swan Hill Topaz 09/06 before winner Caulfield 28/06.

    Sayedaty Sadaty
    Sandown
    Jun 14, 2025

    The 2.5 length 3rd in Race 7

    -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Import who did little in his first two runs - the first the Caulfield Cup - but "switched on" after being beaten a half length 3 weeks earlier this track/distance first up. However there just -5.1 lengths below benchmark off a -12.9 first section, whereas here +0.4 so 13.3 lengths faster first 1200 metres. +2.3 in the mid race before gassing out late with -4.5 last 400. Now that he's "had a race" he should prove very hard to get past and especially if he finds a "fence on" set up.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 28/06

    The Inflictor
    Doomben
    May 24, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 2

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 4yo whose matched his PB from Eagle Farm last October, but this was his clear best performance beyond the sprint trip. +0.3 at the 800 was good speed, before -0.7 and -0.5 in the next two sections with the evenness reflecting the elite rider in Nash Rawiller going on. However despite winning he lost 3.5 lengths last 200 in isolation which strongly suggests he's still got good conditioning improvement to come, this being 3rd up climbing to 1350 on clean ground from 1200 on wet at the Gold Coast. Should remain very hard to beat placed conservatively. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced in the Stradbroke 14/06 at $41 then winner Eagle Farm Tatts mile 28/06

    Jimmy the Bear
    Caulfield
    May 10, 2025

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Hard to miss the very solid return of "Jimmy" at $26 and a length better than he's resuming run 54 weeks back same track/distance. -3.2 at the 800 had him nearly 7 lengths from the flying leader, before +4.2 from the 800 to 400. That's a solid 7.4 length squeeze, and ahead of an understandable late taper going +0.3, losing a length in isolation last 200. Peaked last campaign with +1.4 also this track/distance and should be in for another successful winter.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 31/05, 2nd Flemington 07/06 then winner Flemington 21/06

    Kin
    Doomben
    May 17, 2025

    The 1.9 length 2nd in Race 7

    -2.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 14th on the day

    Summary

    Came off a 0.2 length 2nd at Hawkesbury on "heavy" ground when -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day, but we need to underline that this track was genuinely heavy rather than "only" officially. -16.4 was her raw time v -3.5 previous start was simply too wet for her. If the weather breaks in Queensland or they send her south to Melbourne again - where she's got a dynamic record at Caulfield - in search for cleaner ground is an unknown, but she's clearly going well enough to win if she gets suitable conditions.

    Subsequently: 4th Eagle Farm 07/06 then (in blinkers) winner Ipswich 21/06

    Headley Grange
    Randwick
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 9

    -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    A very solid return win and particularly given he was only clear 200 out. -9.4 at the 800 stalking the leaders, before -6.9 in the mid race and -1.2 last 400. However the breakdown was -3.0 from the 400 to 200, before a brilliant turn of foot going +1.7 last 200 in isolation which was the 6th best of the day. This brings him to 7 wins and 7 placings from 17 career starts showing his consistency and tenacity, with his PB to date of +0.2 set at his last run before spelling. That says he's a slow maturing type who keeps improving with racing.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 21/06

    Jimmy The Bear
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 6

    Benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him first up when a "hard to miss" 2nd three weeks earlier to current Stradbroke favourite WAR MACHINE. There he was -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day, so here has elevated both in IVR data and daily ranking. -1.6 at the 800 sitting 2nd line, before +1.7 and +1.8 last 2 sections. Of note he lost 3 lengths over the last 200 in isolation so he's still trending upwards with conditioning improvement to come. His PB was last August with +1.4 lengths above benchmark set here over 1400 when having his 7th run for the prep, so his history of improving with racing is there.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 07/06 then winner Flemington 21/06

    Splash Back
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 2

    -4.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 44th on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR time, but a dominant first up win after heavy market support and an excellent turn of foot when asked says stick with her! -7.1 at the 800 cruising 3 lengths from the lead. -3.7 in the mid race meant a gentle 3.4 length squeeze, but the +6.5 last 400 was brilliant. Regardless of the soft early tempo, she's ran the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the day. This is only her 2nd prep and 3rd run with the on fire Begg stable and in both her runs last spring she closed with the best last 400 and 200 of the day. The latter was Flemington Melbourne Cup Day. Relaxes and closes well and there should be more wins to come.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 21/06

    Taken
    Flemington
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 3 length winner of Race 6

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Cruised to the front on his terms, and bolted in with a bludge! -4.3 at the 800 had him going 7.7 lengths slower race to race than a fortnight earlier at Sandown when winning by a nose with just -3.4 lengths below benchmark overall. +0.4 and -0.4 last 2 sections, but the 200 splits revealed a 1.4 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a solid 1.7 length rebound last 200 when asked. That was the 13th best last 200 of the day which is solid closing speed at the end of the mile. This was a clear PB stating he's a better horse this time in, and should remain very hard to beat going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 21/07

    Quantum Cat
    Hawkesbury
    May 3, 2025

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 5

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Import looking for his first local win in 11 starts, but now has the perfect platform to produce it after a "no out" Warwick Farm run resuming 16/04. -9.4 relaxing well reflecting his staying capacity, before -1.1 in the mid race and +3.3 last 400. Of note +3.7 from the 400 to 200 meaning a booming sprint, before just -0.4 last 200 screaming "peaked on his run". Off a slow tempo at Randwick last May closed with a brilliant +6.3 last 400 and that was the 3rd best last 400 and 200 of the day at the end of 2400. He's clearly now right, and looks set for a successful winter in the longer races.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick 24/05 then winner Randwick 21/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.