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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Flemington NOW POSTED! NOTE EAGLE FARM FORM AVAILABLE NOW BY *PURCHASING* THE SANDOWN MIDWEEK MEETING 04/06
May 31
Eagle Farm available via THE SANDOWN MIDWEEK LINK 04/06 Friday updated Saturday morning Flemington NOW POSTED!

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Zaszou
    Flemington
    Mar 29, 2025

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 1

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Strong return with a "better further" profile beating her previous PB by 0.5 of a length, and suffered a significant slowdown from the 400 to 200 smothering the potential for more. -2.9 at the 800 stalking the lead pack, +1.8 in the mid race so a solid 4.7 length squeeze, before -2.1 last 400. However lost 2 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a 3.3 last 200 rebound albeit against the fence in the fastest part of the track. This is only her 2nd prep with Phil Stokes and last time in closed with last 400s between +6.8 and +8.0. That's going to be an asset going forward. Perhaps Bendigo standalone day 1300 or 1400 from here???

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 12/04 Group 2 then winner Eagle Farm Listed 07/06

    Captain Electric
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 10, 2024

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Just turned 4yo who won a 2400 at Caulfield 27/07 producing -4.8 lengths below benchmark on very wet ground. Here in his 4th run for the prep and new stable, he's significantly extended his PB (from just -4.3) back in trip in an unlucky run where he suffered a sharp slowdown of 1.6 lengths in the slowest part of the track between the 600 to 400. Overall he was going -5.8 at the 800, -2.8 in the mid race, before +2.5 last 400 and all of that was just over the last 200. This excellent close was also shown via the 7th best last 400 and 5th best last 200 of the day at the end of 2040 metres. This is just BM70 and he can win again in similar.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 28/08 and spelled. Resumed Mornington winner 09/06

    Stylish
    Flemington
    Jan 11, 2025

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 3

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo mare who returned from a spell with a solid best of day win at Bendigo when -0.9 lengths below benchmark, before a poor run on very wet ground Caulfield. Then after a very slow tempo 3rd at the Heath track, has elevated from -7.0 to -2.6, but again is "crying out" for a race with more pressure in it. -11.6 at the 800, -2.3 in the mid race, before +4.4 last 400 chasing the winner. Is clearly in good order and crying out for a faster race, and is ready to go one better in a similar benchmark race. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced 07/02 and spelled. Resumed winner Bendigo 14/05

    Transatlantic
    Doomben
    May 24, 2025

    The 3.8 length 5th in Race 9

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run, but one that says Stradbroke Grand Final peak to come and at big odds. Improved a length from Rockhampton first up going +1.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800, before -0.6 and -3.3 last two sections. Was planted wide throughout, and lost 1.6 lengths last 200 in isolation strongly suggesting a conditioning elevation from here. Tony Gollan trained and won twice at Eagle Farm over summer at 1400 with a best of +2.9 in his first prep as a gelding. That figure would see him very competitive in the Group 1 target.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 07/06

    Joliestar
    Flemington
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Won her target Newmarket and produced a run equalling her PB (+2.7 to be accurate) first up last prep Randwick 24/08. What impressed was she did it off a much faster tempo (-1.1 v -8.5) before +0.5 mid race and +4.9 last 400. The significance here is she's taken the next step showing she can sprint hard off a good rather than only soft tempo, which was previously her "A game". This says that typical of master trainer Waller, she's an evolving mare who should still have her best in front of her. She'll need it to take a TJ Smith, but is trending the right way from here. Or will he try her in an All Aged at 1400???

    Subsequently: Unplaced TJ Smith, before 2nd All Aged Stakes Randwick 19/04. Then winner Eagle Farm Kingsford Smith 07/06

    In Flight
    Doomben
    May 17, 2025

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 7

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Ultra consistent mare, whose 3 IVR figures this time in has been -0.5, -0.1 and here -0.4 finding the wettest conditions yet. -1.8 at the 800 had her 3rd line, before -7.0 and -5.7 in the last two sections on the inferior part of the track with last bit best bit improving from the 13th best last 400 of the day to the 7th best last 200. This was the 9th time in 16 starts that she's produced a top 3 last 800 of the meeting showing her ability to sustain closing speed. Deserves obvious ongoing respect into this carnival.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 07/06

    Oh Too Good
    Caulfield
    May 10, 2025

    The 0.9 length 3rd in Race 9

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by this lightly raced mare with a "better further" profile to go with a terrific strike rate. -3.2 at the 800 had her 4 lengths from the lead, before +0.8 in the mid race and +3.7 last 400, and this included the 3rd best last 600 of the day. Won a high pressure 1500 first up last Geelong Cup day 23/10 producing her PB to date of +0.4, but this set up is ideal to avoid flatness going forward. Would be no surprise if she gets to a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: 4th Sandown 24/05 then winner Flemington 07/06

    Miss Ole
    Sandown Hillside
    May 24, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 1

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Nice win! Was slowly away and then found traffic on debut at the Warrnambool carnival, but did close with the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the meeting. Here with a nice trial 12/05 to bring her along, she's produced a top 3 performance which is very strong for a 2yo even at this time of year at a plain Saturday meeting. -1.2 at the 800 sitting 3rd line, before +3.4 in the mid race and +0.6 last 400. What stands out is she lost 2.8 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 5th best last 800 and 400, but just the 27th best last 200 of the day. That strongly suggests more to come.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 07/06

    Joliestar
    Randwick
    Aug 24, 2024

    The 2.9 length winner of Race 7

    +2.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on thee day

    Summary

    Wow! She was a filly of great promise winning the 1000 Guineas and Arrowfield at her last two starts with +0.4 lengths above benchmark each time, but this was a phenomenal first up leap that says she's immediately a serious Everest contender. -8.5 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead. -2.0 in the mid race was a "cruisey" 6.5 length increase, before a booming +7.5 last 400. This included the best last 600 and 400 of the day, and the rider sitting up late. She's twice previously gone +3 in the first section showing tactical versatility when asked, and is lightly raced and evolving. She's going upwards with only "by how far" the question!

    REPOSTING AS THIS WAS PREVIOUS PEAK RATING BEFORE WINNING NEWMARKET FLEMINGTON 08/03.

    Niance
    Caulfield
    Oct 19, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 5

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo who came to play first up to get black type, matching her Australian PB that she set 2nd up Sandown last March after a -2.2 first up win Pakenham. That strongly suggests she's immediately an improved mare this time in. Good early speed going +2.1 at the 800, before -1.5 mid race, and -6.2 last 400. Did actually dip 1.4 lengths from the 400 to 200, before improving 0.6 of a length last 200 under full pressure. Strong wet track indicator figure of +8.5, and we look forward to measuring her progress. More to come!

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 16/11. Spelled. First up winner Caulfield 31/05

    Niance
    Caulfield
    Nov 16, 2024

    The 0.8 length winner of race 10

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Two from two matching her wet track 1100 win here Cup Day, and it's highly likely we haven't seen the best of her yet either given the strong headwind on the day where she was the only leader to win. -5.6 at the 800, -2.8 in the mid race, before +1.7 last 400. Showed in her Sandown Lakeside March win at just her 2nd career start that she can produce high sustained speed, and we look forward to measuring her progress.

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Caulfield 31/05

    Dublin Journal
    Caulfield
    May 3, 2025

    The 1.3 length 3rd in Race 6

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Veteran who is ready now making a strong elevation from -6.5 first up over 1400 improving his IVR figure by 4 lengths stepping to 2000 metres. -6.0 at the 800, before +0.9 so a solid 7 length midrace squeeze. Last 400 was +3.4 so last bit best bit. Peaked last prep winning a BM84 Ballarat Cup day with -0.6, and that's good enough to win similar at this time of year. Note: Needs to avoid wet tracks.

    Subsequently: Unplaced on wet Casterton then winner Caulfield 31/05

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.