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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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ASCOT NORTHERLY STAKES DAY PREVIEW PODCAST
December 6
"events"

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Aviatress
    Caulfield
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 3

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne coming off best of the day SA Parks track win three weeks earlier when producing a new PB of +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day, to here extending her level with a dominant on pace performance. Did have the perfect race shape and conditions to suit in sharing the lead going just -1.1 and -0.4 first two sections, but her +4.8 last 400 was an excellent turn of foot that included the 3rd best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 of the day. Did only have a short 77 day break between preps so has effectively been racing since April, so is this her current best? Either way is clearly currently thriving.

    Subsequently: 4th Flemington 05/24 and spelled. Resumed winner Morphettville 29/03. REPOST CAULFIELD 29/11 GROUP 3 WINNER

    Yorkshire
    Rosehill
    Feb 1, 2025

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 10

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Came here at deep odds on after an easy but modest time Wyong win when -2.2 lengths below benchmark. There he stalked a soft tempo, whereas here in going +1.8 at the 800 he was 5.6 lengths faster race to race, but still 3.7 lengths from the flying leader. +0.9 in the mid race, before +3.6 last 400, including +2.4 last 200 racing away with "last bit best bit". He's smashed his PB from benchmark, and has stated that he's trending upwards in a big way. This is BM88 company, and stakes racing looks his next step.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 15/02. Spelled. Unplaced Newcastle resuming 15/11 before winner Group 3 Rosehill 29/11

    Aviatress
    Caulfield
    Nov 15, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 6

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Produced her PB this track/distance 2024 Caulfield Guineas Day when a blistering +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the elite card, but what's noticeable now in the data is she's relaxing in her races. -5.0 and -3.6 first two sections, before a booming +5.9 last 400 including +3.2 last 200 which was the 3rd best of the day. In SA previous start 13/09 her close included +8.0 last 400 and the 2nd best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. Maybe the 1400 Testa Rossa here in a fortnight next?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 29/11

    Yorkshire
    Randwick
    Feb 15, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 4

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Came off his booming best of the day win at Rosehill 3 weeks earlier 1500 metres, but he's won with a bit of a bludge here. +0.1 stalking the leaders, +0.4 in the mid race, before +1.3 last 400. Last bit best bit +0.9 last 200 in isolation with his only danger covered and the race won. Communication at time of writing was a freshen up before the Scone Cup as a milestone towards the Big Dance in the Spring, and he's clearly a lightly raced "climber". We look forward to tracking his progress. 

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up unplaced Newcastle 15/11 then winner Rosehill Festival Stakes 29/11

    Forever Boy
    Ascot
    Nov 15, 2025

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 4

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 33rd on the day

    Summary

    Evolving stayer who clearly turned up fit with good market support first up off a 133 day break at the mile, with two trials over 1450 metres leading in. Settled going just -13.0 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 4.5 lengths from the lead. -2.8 in the mid race meant a solid 10.3 length squeeze, before a strong kickdown of +7.3 lengths last 400. That was the 9th best of the day as well as the 8th best last 200. This matches his PB set at Pinjarra June, but note he missed 420 days racing prior to that prep, so further improvement this time in is highly plausible. 

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 29/11

    She's a Hustler
    Flemington
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 4

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Produced a similar run to her Cox Plate Day lead in win when +0.6 ranked 11th on the day, but of course the conditions were contrasting going from a firm deck to a genuinely heavy track. Stalked the leader/winner SUNSET PARK throughout with sections of -8.8, -1.7 and -7.8, but really knuckled down late closing with -3.0 last 200 with the context it was the 5th best last 200 of the day at the end of 2000 metres. (4 lengths to the 3rd horse as runners were well strung out.) She was only 3rd up here in just her 10th career start, so is clearly still evolving. Perhaps a Ballarat Cup is next? 

    Subsequently: Winner Zipping Classic Caulfield 29/11

    She's a Hustler
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 25, 2025

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 6

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo mare with an excellent strike rate through the grades, and here has ticked the boxes of a stakes win, breaking benchmark for the first time, and extending her PB significantly from -1.7 set Sandown April. Importantly the data strongly suggests there's more to come. Shared the lead with a cruisey -6.6, before +1.9 in the mid race and +5.2 last 400. The micro-splits showed an "explosion" at the 600 when challenged going from just -2.9 at the 600 to +4.7 at the 400. That she was able to cope and remain so strong late is a great sign of talent and tenacity. Flemington Matriarch looks ideal from here. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Matriarch on heavy ground 08/11 then winner Zipping Classic 29/11

    Jenni Gone Bonkers
    Eagle Farm
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 1

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 33rd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent progression from -3.7 at Kenso 14/05 on very wet ground leading in which was her previous best. Of note there her first section was -4.3, while here it was +6.5 so a booming 10.8 length improvement of speed race to race. -0.7 and -5.3 last two sections, losing a length last 200 in isolation as the exertion told late. That says she can peak from here into the -1 range, and is unlikely to remain a maiden for long!

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up Pakenham 5 length maiden winner 07/11

    Different Gravy
    Flemington
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 2 length winner of Race 3

    -2.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 20th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving young stayer in his first prep as a gelding, and on the soft ground he's again showed an ability for a very solid "last bit best bit" close, after a booming +7.9 last 400 in SA on firm ground. Here -6.3 at the 800 had him in a borderline non-winning position 7 lengths from the lead, before -4.4 in the mid race, and a +2.1 last 400. That was all in the last 200 and that was the 9th best of Melbourne Cup day at the end of 1800 metres. His PB was set 17 days earlier with -1.7, and that's a good base for a spring 3yo. Maybe the 2000 at Caulfield 29/11 from here?

    Subsequently: Winner 2000 Caulfield 29/11 

    Knobelas
    Flemington
    Jul 5, 2025

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 4

    -1.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market getting beaten as hot favourite, but after coming off two "walking" tempo easy wins - going just -17.4 and -15.7 first section - at Pakenham and Sandown, has now "had a race". Shared the lead going +0.2 at the 800 so significantly faster. -0.7 and -4.5 last two sections, losing 2.4 lengths over the last 200 in isolation as the run told. This was her 4th run first prep so may spell from here, but the booming closes she produced in her wins of +5.8 and +5.9, says she has turn of foot talent, and she be a better mare next time in.

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up Pakenham winner 28/12

    Gringotts
    Rosehill
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 0.6 length 2nd in Race 9

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: He's bang on point for another Big Dance! Could not have had a more contrasting race shape first to 2nd up going a brutal +9.8 lengths above benchmark stalking the lead, compared to -19.5 at Randwick 7 weeks earlier on wet ground. Tapered from there, but did rebound under full pressure going -2.6 in the mid race, before -0.2 last 400. Won the Ryder in March with +2.3, which was similar to his Big Dance 2024 figure with +2.2, while his all time best is +3.7. He has 24 days to recovery which is the perfect break off this high exertion.

    Subsequently: Winner Big Dance 04/11. Winner Kembla Gong 21/11

    King of Light
    Ascot
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 7

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Wow! Unbeaten 3yo who here was 2nd up having his 4th career start, and finding a high pressure race shape on a genuinely firm surface, we got to see what he can really do and it was serious! Sat 4 lengths from the lead at the 800 going +1.9 lengths above benchmark, before unleashing a phenomenal +6.6 mid race and +5.2 last two sections, which even allowing for the firm track is outstanding. In softer tempos on debut Pinjarra 05/07 and first up here 25/10 his closing sprints were +7.9 and +8.2 last 400, and +4.7 and +5.4 last 200. He's a serious horse and will take a power of beating in the Guineas with ordinary luck.

    Subsequently: Winner WA Guineas 22/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.