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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington with bonus Ipswich word doc emailed at 10:30 free
20th June
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Midnight Dynamite
    Doomben
    May 16, 2026

    The 2.1 length winner of Race 1

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Two from two this prep, but elevated big time from his -1.7 length below benchmark ranked 14th on the day first up win at Randwick on good going, to this top 3 performance on soft ground. Led going -2.6 at the 800, before -0.9 in the mid race and +0.1 last 400 which included a 0.5 length late taper over the last 200 with the race won. Excellent wet track indicator of +8.7. His career PB is +0.6 set at Randwick in BM78 company 01/11, and he's set to at least match that from here. This is just class 6 company, so perhaps back here in a fortnight at BM85 or Eagle Farm Listed 1500 a week later?

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick 06/07 then winner Randwick Listed Civic Stakes 20/06

    Ice Kool
    Randwick
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 6

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Very promising lightly raced 3yo who we sizzled when winning here 27/12 over 1200 with +0.8 lengths above benchmark 2nd career start. His debut was a -0.9 length above benchmark best of day win at Warwick Farm so this says he's returned 1.6 lengths better as a starting point. Here -1.9 at the 800 leading, before -0.6 in the mid race and -1.1 last 400. This included a flat spot of a 2.1 length dip from the 400 to 200. He ran the 3rd best last 800 of the day, the 2nd best last 600, but just the 15th best last 400 and 200. That strongly suggests there's more to come and in the winter that should equate to more wins. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 20/06

    Stylish
    Flemington
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 5

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 40th on the day

    Summary

    Fitter and firmer and look out! Despite the modest IVR time, produced the perfect "loom and fade" run in a "no tempo" race after 154 days away. Just -16.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 stalking the lead pack, before -6.6 in the mid race and -0.5 last 400. However lost 2.2 lengths over the last 200 which we put down to conditioning and particularly in the sapping conditions. This was also seen via the 3rd best last 600 and 400 of the day, but just the 12th best last 200. She's a "just below benchmark" mare and that wins city races through the winter, but getting away from heavy ground would be ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 20/06

    Tazima
    Hawkesbury
    May 2, 2026

    The 0.6 length 3rd in Race 4

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Came off a last start win at Rosehill 7 weeks earlier, but he's actually increased his IVR figure from -3.6 lengths below benchmark, and it sets him up for further success noting he'll thrive on wet winter tracks. -8.2 at the 800 tagging the leader/winner 6 lengths, before a big 12 length mid race squeeze going +3.8 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +8.0 which is clearly the best close of his career albeit on very firm ground. This is a new PB as a lightly raced import in only his 2nd local prep. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 23/05 and winner Randwick 20/06

    Jimmy the Bear
    Flemington
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    In the zone this time in with two wins and two 2nds - the first to subsequent Stradbroke winner WAR MACHINE - and here just dominated sitting midfield of a very sharp speed. +5.2 lengths above benchmark at the 800, yet 5 lengths from the lead, followed by -0.1 and -5.2 last two sections. (Meaning least tired late!) Has an all time PB of +1.4 at Caulfield last August, and that looks in his scope into the Winter Final.

    Subsequently: Winner Winter Final 05/07 Flemington.

    Miss Joelene
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 1 length winner of Race 7

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Super winning performance by this quality staying mare who smashed her previous PB of -0.5 set when winning at Eagle Farm in June over 2100 metres, and produced a blistering raw time of +8.0 lengths above benchmark adjusted down due to the high pressure and good track. -0.1 at the 800 was excellent speed for her, but 6.7 lengths from the lead. "Went to work" from there with +4.9 and +3.2 last 2 sections even tapering over the last 200 losing 1.8 in a "least tired" late set up. With a "better further" profile, she should continue to be very hard to beat in summer stakes races.

    Subsequently: Beaten a nose Eagle Farm 27/12 then winner Gold Coast 10/01.

    Thebudgiesmugla
    Randwick
    May 23, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 4

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Came off a -1.2 lengths below benchmark run at Gosford when a close up 5th, but ranked just 40th on their standalone day on good ground. Conversely this was in genuinely wet conditions, as he stepped from 2100 to 2400 when only 3rd up 2nd local prep Ex-NZ. Shared the lead going just -11.3 lengths below benchmark, before -2.0 in the mid race and -0.6 last 400. Did find 2.1 lengths under full pressure last 200. He's shown significant improvement this time in with his two Rosehill wins last spring just -7.0 and -5.0. With wet track indicators from +4.9 to +6.3 he'll thrive into winter conditions. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06

    Nobler
    Randwick
    Apr 25, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR figure to include, but as an import in just BM78 grade after coming from a near non-winning position he deserves great respect through the grades and up in trip. Just -13.3 at the 800, and that had him 7 lengths from the lead. -5.5 in the mid race was an easy 8 length squeeze, but +6.9 over the last 400 was excellent with last bit best bit +4.5 last 200. The context was it was the 3rd best last 400, and best last 200 of the day at the end of the mile. His lightly raced overseas profile says "better further". We look forward to measuring his progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Gosford 09/05. Winner Randwick 13/06

    Nobler
    Gosford
    May 9, 2026

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 5

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a fortnight earlier despite just -2.8 lengths below benchmark given he came from a near non-winning position, and crushed the line with the 3rd best last 400 and best last 200 of the day. Here the race shape was significantly different and he thrived on it. -1.8 at the 800 was 11.5 lengths faster first section race to race, before +2.1 in the mid race and -0.1 last 400. This gives him both the speed and the "miles in legs" base, to step up in trip. This is just BM72 level and he's produced an open handicap performance. Can work through the grades and continue winning without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06

    Smashing Time
    Gosford
    May 9, 2026

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 2

    +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 4yo who 2nd up in blinkers first time has beaten his all time PB by a length, and produced a very strong best of the day performance despite racing in (only) Midway company. +2.0 lengths above benchmark at the 800 near matched with +1.5 in the mid race. Tapered over the last bit with -1.1 last 400 with all of that drop off over the last 200 in isolation. His previous 3 wins were all at Kembla, and this was his clear best away from that track. (-2.2 at Randwick October 2024. Would only need to hold this IVR figure to work through the grades.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06

    War Eternal
    Doomben
    May 16, 2026

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 5

    Summary

    A genuine "swimmer" who had backing onto his first wet track for the prep, and while the market support was on point, the data says there's still more to come despite being 8 years young. -0.8 at the 800 had him in the box seat, but the leaders dropped anchor so in the mid race he suffered a 6 length slowdown from -6.7 from the 800 to 400. His last 400 was -2.3, but last bit best bit +0.9 last 200 meaning a 4.2 length pick up late under full pressure. Last prep his best was +0.2 winning on the Randwick heavy, and he looks set to run to that from here. Should remain very hard to beat if conditions continue. 

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 06/06 then winner Eagle Farm 13/06

    Alalcance
    Eagle Farm
    May 30, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 3

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Despite a modest IVR figure, this was an excellent win from two perspectives: 1/ A big run to run improvement from Doomben a fortnight earlier when -4.1 lengths below benchmark and 2/ She relaxed well going -3.2 lengths below benchmark sitting 2nd line, rather than +6.0 Randwick 07/03 and +4.4 in her lead in both at 2000 metres when leading on each occasion. She closed with -0.2 and -5.4 last 400. Autumn 2025 she was dominant in her two lead in wins to the Sydney Cup when +0.2 and +1.1 over 2000 and 2400, so there's scope for improvement. Looks perfectly placed for the Brisbane Cup from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Brisbane Cup 13/06 Eagle Farm

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.