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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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November 4
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Pride of Jenni
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 26, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 6

    +2.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the night

    Summary

    The champ is back! First up after 125 days away, back to her "Wheelhouse" of owning a mile race, and uniquely she's won running only a moderate early split, but with a genuine mid race burst of acceleration. +0.6 at the 800 is up to 10 lengths slower than her usual freak lead speed, before +6.9 from the 800 to 400. The context of that is it's the fastest mid race move of her career! Tapered with -1.1 last 400, but this included a 2.6 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. Whether her +5.5 from this race last year is behind her is an unknown given her bleed at the end of the carnival, but she's clearly in very good order again!

    Subsequently: Unplaced King Charles Randwick 18/10 before winning Empire Rose Flemington 01/11

    Wootton Verni
    Caulfield
    Oct 15, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 7

    Benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Import in his 2nd local prep for Waller and first as a gelding, and while this is his first victory here, it was a clear best performance to date and says he'll be adding to this tally with ordinary luck and health going forward. -5.3 at the 800 cruising 2nd line, and of note it was 8.3 lengths softer first section that the high pressure 1800 race shape at Sandown the start prior. +2.0 in the mid race before unleashing with +7.4 last 400 which was the 14th best of the day at the end of 2000 metres. This is the perfect race shape to avoid flatness going forward, but much more likely further improvement. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill Cup at Randwick 01/11

    Observer
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 25, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of race 9

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Clearly an emerging talent who came on from his luckless Caulfield Guineas 3rd when -1.2 lengths below benchmark, to win this with effortless ease. While his figure was slightly inferior, jockey Zahra took such a hold at the 100 metre mark that the stewards fined him. -4.6 at the 800 leading at a cruise, and was able to repeat with -4.7 mid race. His last 400 was +2.2, but lost 1.6 lengths last 200 under that forced slowdown. Could not have had an easier lead in race shape for Saturday's Derby where he's sure to start very short odds.

    Subsequently: Winner Derby 01/11

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 8

    +4.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    The emerging rock star of Australian racing made it 7 from 7 with this Epsom her first Group 1 win, and with ordinary luck and health going forward there's many more to come. +4.2 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting leading line, before the negative of a 2.8 length slowdown. Last 400 was +5.1 with the last 200 in isolation +3.2, meaning getting stronger right through the line. She's smashed through her +2.8 to +3.1 range best, and that says she's still trending upwards! The Golden Eagle or Empire Rose look the logical next target at time of writing.

    Subsequently: Winner Golden Eagle 01/11

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.4 length 3rd in Race 7

    +3.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Produced a near identical run to a fortnight earlier when +4.2 lengths above benchmark, but on a much faster race shape. +0.9 at the 800 stalking the lead was 5.6 lengths faster race to race off a standing start. +1.9 in the mid race followed by +3.2 meant a "smoother" race shape as opposed to being asked to produce his booming finish. This can also assist him avoiding flatness into his likely next start in 14 days also here over 1300 metres. His All Aged Stakes win over 1400 in April was with +3.8 lengths above benchmark so the step up holds no fears.

    Subsequently: Winner Russell Balding Randwick 01/11

    Tentyris
    Flemington
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 1.6 length 3rd in Race 6

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    First up after a solid 4 run first prep which peaked with a +0.1 lengths above benchmark win Randwick Group 2 after being beaten a nose in the Blue Diamond, and this performance strongly suggests there's a big new peak to come in the Coolmore Derby Day. -5.7 at the 800, before +2.6 mid race and +7.7 last 400. However note he lost 1.8 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 2nd best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, but just the 11th best last 200. In addition the first two home were both super wide lane advantaged, while this colt stayed on the inner part of the track.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 18/10. Winner Coolmore Derby Day 01/11

    Tentyris
    Caulfield
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 4

    -0.1 length below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his first up +0.8 at Flemington, and while he dipped IVR wise, note he's gone from the 13th to the 10th ranked on the day on much softer track, and was very strong late when asked. -4.9 at the 800, before +0.8 in the mid race and +4.2 last 400, with last bit best bit +3.0 last 200 in isolation. He's clearly set to peak in the Coolmore, and showed in his Randwick win 08/03 and ability to produce and sustain an excellent late close. On that occasion his combined last two splits were +11.2 and he's a stronger colt now. Likely to be very competitive in the Group 1 grand final. 

    Subsequently: Winner Coolmore 01/11

    Warnie
    Caulfield
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 8

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Fourth run since returning from QLD and had the negative of inside barriers for his "relaxed" style of racing in his past three starts including here with the tempo also against. Importantly though this is his best IVR figure to date chasing proven high class WFA performer PRIVATE EYE. -7.4 and -3.5 first two sections, before a booming +3.6 last 400 which was the 7th best of the day. 1400-mile at Flemington in a race of tempo and with full momentum Cup week looks perfect for him.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 01/11 Derby Day 1400

    Caballus
    Scone
    May 17, 2025

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 8

    +0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    First up now gelded and clearly wants to be a racehorse! Didn't come up last prep through the spring, but here has returned with his 2nd best ever IVR figure, and clear best resuming run. -1.3 at the 800 stalking the leaders, before -1.9 in the mid race. The last 400 however was blistering with +8.8 being the 3rd best of the day. February 2024 he produced his PB of +1.4. Looks set for a big campaign.  (On wet tracks currently non-definitive.)

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up 5th Randwick 18/10 then winner Flemington Derby Day 01/11

    Caballus
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.1 length 5th in Race 6

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    Huge first up run after completely conceding early, but closing with the best last 800, 600 and 400 of Everest day! Just -6.0 at the 800 when 9.2 lengths from the lead and effectively in a non-winning position. +2.9 and +7.0 last two sections though was an excellent sustained close, and note he peaked on his run at the 200 losing 2.8 lengths late. His all time PB is +1.4 produced when a colt, but his only previous run as a gelding was May at the Scone carnival with +0.6 lengths above benchmark win which included a booming +8.8 last 400. Should take a power of beating from here if in the strike zone early.

    Subsequently: Winner Derby Day Flemington 01/11

    Stefi Magnetica
    Rosehill
    Sep 13, 2025

    The 3.2 length 4th in Race 7

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    May need one more, but this was the perfect kick off run from this dual Group 1 winning mare, after being soft in the market. Just -8.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead. +0.2 in the mid race meant an excellent 8.6 length squeeze, before +2.1 last 400. Note lost a length last 200 in isolation as also seen via the 13th best last 400, but just the 24th best last 200 as she peaked on her run. This matched her first up figure from last prep, before going +0.3 when 2nd up and winning the Doncaster with an all time PB of +3.6.

    Subsequently: Winner $2million Invitational Randwick 25/10

    Via Sistina
    Randwick
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Australia's best horse, who brought up her 9th local win and 8th best of the day performance, and did so on heavy ground with the significance being her only unplaced Australian run to date was at Flemington on a similarly rated surface. Here just -20.7 at the 800 when 6.2 lengths from the lead. In the mid race went -2.9 meaning a 17.8 length squeeze, before a benchmark close. Context was the 3rd best last 600 of the day, but the 13th best last 200 as the exertion told despite winning. Last prep she elevated from +2.4 to +4.3 and that looks a conservative target from here.

    Subsequently: Twice 3rd Flemington then winner Cox Plate 25/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.