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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Geelong standalone
January 3
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Harry's Yacht
    Ballarat
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 3

    -4.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    We rarely include the unlucky runner - he was certainly that - but this sprinter either needs to use the early speed he possesses, or have clear air for his big closing sprint which has been in the +6.2 to +6.7 range. The former was in his first up Bendigo win which included the 3rd best last 600 and the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of their Cup Day. Here -3.6 at the 800 after a slightly slow start and "stuck" from the low draw, before -0.2 and -3.9 last two sections. Lost a sharp 2.4 lengths in traffic from the 400 to 200, before a late 0.8 length pick up. Ideal off season type with a benchmark rating of just 80 at present.

    Subsequently: 2nd Cranbourne 27/12 then winner Geelong 03/01

    Sweethearted
    Pakenham
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 0.4 length 3rd in Race 4

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 22nd on the day

    Summary

    Just missed being "fashioned" into a 1000 sprint on his home town Cup Day, but he's better further and couldn't have done much more under this circumstance. -3.9 at the 800, before +0.5 in the mid race and +5.4 last 400. He produced the 2nd best last 800 of the day, as well as the 3rd best last 400 and 200 of the day. He enjoyed getting away from the very wet Flemington track and should be very hard to beat in similar in the 1100-1200 range from here, with a benchmark performance a realistic aim. 

    Subsequently: Winner Geelong 03/01

    Need Some Luck
    Flemington
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 3

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Cracking "2nd tier" sprinter with 6 wins and 12 top two finishes from his 15 start career, and he came to play first up on the heavy going off sharp lead in trials. -9.6, -6.8 and -3.4 showed he continued to build through the race running the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day. Another solid wet track indicator of +6.7 with a +10.2 in the locker from the Gold Coast in May. His all time PB is +1.7, and he has a +0.4 set winning at Warwick Farm October 2024 over 1400, so he's not one-dimensional! Should have more success this summer with his premium consistency. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Cranbourne 22/11 then winner Eagle Farm 03/12


    Eye of the Fire
    Flemington
    Jul 19, 2025

    The 2.3 length 4th in Race 6

    -3.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 33rd on the day

    Summary

    Back on track! 4yo who resumed with a "nothing" run (-6.6) at Rosehill after going back where his early speed was just -12.4 lengths below benchmark. Here shared the lead with -3.1 on the soft ground, before -3.3 mid race and +0.4 last 400. Lost a length last 200 in isolation. So improvement to come, noting he won at Canterbury and Rosehill last November with Benchmark best of the night and +0.2 ranked 3rd on a city Saturday. Perhaps a BM84 at Moonee Valley over 1200 from here in 3 weeks???

    Subsequently: 3 times unplaced and spelled. First up winner Randwick 03/01 @ $16

    Warwoven
    Randwick
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 1

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase; This was a monster debut win! -4.8 lengths below benchmark at the 800 relaxing well when asked 2.2 lengths from the lead. +0.8 in the mid race meant a quality 5.5 length increase of speed, but it was the fact he not only produced +3.0 last 400, but also lost 1.8 lengths last 200 which says more to come big time! Best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day, but just the 5th best last 200 also showed the late taper. This says he has +2 potential and is now a serious player in the Magic Millions as a starting point.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 03/01

    Holymanz
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.9 length 3rd in Race 8

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    There was communication from the stable and big odds market support to say he was ready to run a big race 2nd up, and he certainly did with an IVR figure just below his all time PB. He coped with early speed and a mid race slowdown as well going +2.1 at the 800, -1.6 in the mid race, before a +2.7 last 400 late pickup. His glimpse for this run was first up Derby Day when -1.4 lengths below benchmark, but with an excellent +5.5 last 400, which bar one performance off a "walking" tempo is the absolute outer reach of his capacity. Proven at holding his form once he finds it too.

    Subsequently: Winner Werribee Cup 07/12.

    Apulia
    Flemington
    Nov 6, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of race 5

    -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Quality 3yo stayer who was beaten a nose in the Derby off a strong Group 3 win Moonee Valley, but missed chunks of 202 and 353 days racing prior to this prep. Won the same 1500 Cox Plate eve as 2024 first up with -1.2 lengths below benchmark - very similar year to year - but this time had 13 rather than 11 days between runs, and at the mile rather than 1800 and it worked. Matched the IVR figure overall, but -8.4 at the 800, before +2.4 mid race and +1.9 last 400 included a 2 length flat spot from the 600 to 200, before picking that up under full pressure. +0.6 all time best is in his sights.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Group 1 Ascot 06/12 before winner 20/12 Ascot Group 2, then Perth Cup winner New Year's Day

    King's Secret
    Randwick
    Dec 20, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 7

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up progression from Rosehill 3 weeks earlier with the good market support to go with it after producing -2.9 lengths below benchmark when trapped wide throughout. -2.9 at the 800 stalking the lead, before +2.2 in the mid race and +0.5 last 400. Lost 1.8 lengths over the last 200 strongly suggesting there's still good conditioning improvement to come. This was also seen via the 4th best last 800, but just the 27th best last 200 of the day. Won four races from 6 starts last time in with a previous best of -0.1 when 4th run in, so he's strongly suggesting that he's a slow maturing evolving sprinter to stick with.

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury Stakes 01/01/26

    Grid Girl
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 4

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo who has always shown glimpses of talent, but this time in may be set for a new level. Resumed Kyneton Cup Day 05/11 with a 2nd best of the day 8 length win on heavy ground adjusted up to -5.2 lengths below benchmark, but the best last 200 of the day running away. Here +2.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 set up the win with quality speed, before -1.2 in the mid race meaning a 3.6 length slowdown, and a +0.5 last 400 all of which was over the last 200. This is a new PB from -1.1 set at Ballarat 3rd up over 1400 last prep, so she should have more wins in store this prep trending upwards.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/12.

    Regal Zeus
    Bendigo
    Apr 12, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 9

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    "Had the favours" on a leader advantaged/fence on day, but don't underestimate this performance as he stepped from a slow tempo 1200 win at Caulfield to a fast mile here. +4.3 at the 800 was a 9.5 length quicker first section, and he sustained it with +2.3 mid race. Last 400 was +0.3, but the breakdown showed a 3.8 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a late 1.4 length rebound last 200 under full pressure underlining his tenacity. Has a +1.9 PB set at Moonee Valley last September and that now looks in his sights.

    REPOST: WAS 3RD UP HERE. 3RD UP WINNER KILMORE CUP 22/11. Lord Stakes winner 26/12 Sandown 

    Mare of Mt Buller
    Gosford
    May 10, 2025

    The 1.1 length 3rd in Race 8

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Three starts this prep for +0.8, +0.6 and here +0.1 and they've been the only 3 runs above benchmark in her career underlining how well she's returned. And the slow tempo race shape back to the mile meant she's run as well as the circumstance allowed back from 1900 to the mile. -11.2 at the 800 had her nearly 10 lengths from the lead in a non-winning position. +2.7 in the mid race meant a booming 14 length squeeze, and she produced +2.1 last 400. However now she lost 2.4 lengths last 200 in isolation off the 7 week freshen. Should peak from here and would assume a trip north is most likely.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced in QLD and spelled. 3rd up winner Randwick 27/12

    Saint George
    Flemington
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 6

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced import in just his 2nd prep after showing glimpses of talent last spring. Now gelded, both runs this time in have been faultless despite missing the main prize in each. The Seymour Cup 12/10 saw him crush the line with a booming +8.0 last 400 which was the 4th best of the day and the 2nd best last 200 at the end of the mile. Here -10.4 at the 800, before +1.7 mid race meaning a 12 length squeeze, and +2.0 last 400. Note however lost 0.8 of a length over the last 200 in isolation which strongly suggests "fully fit peak run from here." Is entered for WA and would be very hard to beat there is continuing his upwards trend.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Ballarat Cup 06/12 before winner Cranbourne 27/12

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.