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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
September 20
9am Saturday

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Lazzura
    Randwick
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 1.4 length winner of Race 9

    +0.5 length above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    This was a win! Big return from this 4yo mare to the point that suggests she could be a big race "sleeper" of Chris Waller's away from his higher profile stars. -12.9 at the 800, before -5.2 mid race and +0.3 last 400. Context that she turned up fit was the 5th best last 800 and 200 of the day showing the sustained close. To date her PB is +1.0 but on a very firm Randwick track when 3rd in the Group 1 Surround March. This was a 3 length improvement on her resuming run last prep, and 1.3 better than any other first up run. More to come!

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 13/09

    Arkansaw Kid
    Caulfield
    Aug 16, 2025

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Good return via the context as clearly not being as "screwed down" as when winning this race last year when also first up with +1.5 lengths above benchmark off a 98 day spell. Here with 161 days since his last run was going just -8.6 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 5.4 lengths from the lead. (Last year sat on pace.) -3.5 in the mid race was a 5.2 length squeeze and 5 lengths more than the winner POP AWARD had to. Last 400 was +1.4 peaking on his run losing 2.6 lengths last 200. This was also seen via the 3rd best last 800 of the day, but just the 17th best last 200. More to come from here and can test his PB. 

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield 30/08 then winner Flemington 13/09

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 7

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Is this Australia's next champion? Since her stunning debut with +0.9 that was extended to +3.0 in her first two starts last August she's had a boom on her, and this 5th career run, resuming here says she still hasn't got a ceiling on her. On very wet ground was going -6.8 at the 800 stalking the lead, before -4.2 mid race and +0.8 last 400. The last 200 in isolation was +1.6, with the context the best last 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the day. Wet track indicator was a "swimmer" figure of +13.2 so she's ticked that box as well in her first heavy track run. We look forward to tracking her progress.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 13/09

    Tempted
    Randwick
    Apr 12, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 4

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Goes to the paddock after her first prep as good as any 2yo in the country to date, with a booming +1.5 length PB winning this track/distance 08/03 either side of luckless runs in the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper. Here -5.4 at the 800 sitting 3rd line, before +1.2 in the mid race and +4.8 last 400. For further context she closed with the 8th best last 800 and the 9th best last 400 of a multiple Group 1 day showing here sustained strength. With natural improvement through her break, she'll start the spring as the testing material for fellow fillies at least.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill first up 13/09

    Tempted
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 3

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    This was a big win! Was clearly set to win the Blue Diamond from her solid -2.0 nose 2nd at Rosehill when having momentum stopping traffic, so instead has "exploded" here showing what she's capable of and it's a very good level. Settled at the 800 going -2.5 when 5.6 lengths from the lead. From there +4.4 in the mid race meaning an excellent 7 length squeeze. Last 400 was +3.6, so the close was strong and sustained. It also included a one length slowdown from the 600 to 200. Usual caveat of a filly in her first prep, but the reality is if she holds or improves off this figure, she's likely to be deep in the Golden Slipper finish.

    Subsequently: 3rd Golden Slipper 22/03 Rosehill. Winner Randwick 12/04. Spelled and returned winner Rosehill 13/09

    Juja Kibo
    Rosehill
    Aug 2, 2025

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 7

    -2.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from Sandown 16/07 when -4.0 lengths below benchmark, but producing a booming +6.1 last 400 after an excellent 11.6 length mid race squeeze. Couldn't have had more contrasting circumstances here on the bog track and with a big midrace slowdown. -5.3 at the 800 when 2 lengths from the lead was actually good speed given the conditions. -13.4 from the 800 to 400 was a big 8 length loss of momentum, before -8.7 last 400 that included last bit best bit -2.3 last 400 under full pressure. 14th best last 200 of the day was very strong at the end of 1800. Booming wet track indicator of +10.0 too!

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 23/08 then winner Rosehill 13/08

    Cafe Millenium
    Flemington
    Aug 2, 2025

    The 2.2 length 5th in Race 6

    -2.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    After winning here 3 starts earlier this track/distance with -2.9, he's actually improved his figures twice with -2.0 a fortnight later and -2.2 here despite both runs being unplaced, due to big mid race squeezes from an impossible race shape position at the rear of the field. -10.5 at the 800 had him near 7 lengths from the leader/winner, before -0.3 from the 800 to 400. As such he barely made ground by the top of the straight and was left with too much to do. +6.5 was the best in race and 2nd best last 400 of the day at the end of 1420 metres. A race of tempo with wide lanes in play required! Caulfield 1700???

    Subsequently: Winner in SA 23/08 at $8 and then Flemington 13/08 at $10

    Juja Kibo
    Randwick
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 4.4 length 6th in Race 3

    -7.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 60th on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market an unplaced favourite, but could not have had things against him more. Firstly settled out the back going just -21.6 lengths below benchmark in a non-winning position 11.7 lengths from the lead. Then was "asked the impossible" improving a phenomenal 22.3 lengths on the wet track going +0.7 lengths above benchmark from the 800 to 400. For context he was the only runner on the day to break benchmark in the mid-race! Unsurprisingly he tapered with -4.7 last 400 with -3.4 of that just the last 200 in the complete gas out. He can rebound hard without surprise from here to his -2.3 best to date.

    Subsequently: Won Rosehill 13/09

    Mr Brightside
    Flemington
    Sep 14, 2024

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 8

    +3.0 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Champion with his 17th win, and his 8th best of the day performance in defending his Makybe title, elevating from his +2.3 first up Caulfield. Here he settled at the 800 going -7.0 trailing PRIDE OF JENNI 7.3 lengths, before producing a -1.2 mid race. That gassed him out despite winning as "everything" was out on their feet as seen via -11.1 last 400. The raw time of -19.3 lengths below benchmark underlined the conditions. He's actually matched his last performance on heavy ground when winning the 2023 Doncaster. His best mile is +5.3 on clean ground, and he can test it from here.

    Subsequently: Twice 2nd, 4th in the Cox Plate, before winning the Champions Mile Flemington 09/11

    REPOSTING 13/09 AS OUR WRITE UP FROM 2024 WINNER OF THE MAKYBE DIVA

    Lugh
    Randwick
    Jul 26, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced rising 5yo who came to play 2nd up with market support after a "nothing" -9.9 first up 4th at Kenso 25/06, and produced a new PB from -0.6 best of the day Newcastle January in his only run for the prep after gelding and a long break. Here -4.5 at the 800 leading line, before -6.6 and -8.1 last 2 sections showing how wet the track was producing a raw time of -19.2 lengths below benchmark. Given he missed 476 days racing post 2023 spring, he should have further improvement to come with the obvious caveat that he remains sound.

    Subsequently: 3rd Randwick 23/08 then winner Tuncurry Cup 12/09

    Raikoke
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 0.9 length 4th in Race 9

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Good return after 182 days away in a solidly run 1200 which says the stable has him right again and there's more to come. -2.1 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before +2.4 in the mid race, but -1.3 last 400. However the last 200 in isolation saw a 3 length drop off. Should get a good conditioning benefit from this, and his benchmark PB is in sights now. At this time of year, that's a likely winning figure.

    Subsequently: 3 unplaced runs before winner Sandown 10/09

    Pericles
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 7, 2024

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +3.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    2nd up off a sound +2.0 lengths above benchmark 3rd in the Lawrence at Caulfield, and here not only dominated, but has produced a new PB from +3.3 when 2nd in the Doncaster April on heavy ground. Here Blake Shinn had him relaxed at the 800 sitting four lengths from lone leader BUFFALO RIVER going -1.2, before a "serious" mid race squeeze of 6.5 lengths going +5.3 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was -0.4 with the last 200 in isolation -0.5. That says he's highly likely to still evolve further from this conditioning wise. Should be considered a live Epsom chance which the stable at time of writing have communication they are heading to.

    REPOST: Won first up Randwick Tramway Group two 06/09 same weekend 2025 now with Bjorn Baker

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.