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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Cranbourne
November 23
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Briasa
    Rosehill
    Aug 31, 2024

    The 2 length winner of Race 10

    +0.5 length above benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Made it four from four with this first up return and dragged his PB from -2.2 saying the best is still in front of him. -4.9 at the 800 sitting third line, before a solid 8.3 length squeeze going +3.3 from the 800 to 400. Went on with it closing with +4.3 last 400, and the best last 800, and 2nd best last 600 and 400 of the day sustained close said he turned up fit. This is just BM78 level, so particularly stepping up to 1200+ from here placed conservatively should see him remain very hard to beat.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 05/10 then winner Kenso 30/10 winner $1million Hunter Newcastle

    Jokers Grin
    Ascot
    Nov 2, 2024

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 5

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Resumed with a new PB after winning three in a row to end his previous prep, and he really profiles as a sprinter on the rise with all four of his wins seeing him produce the best last 800 and 600 of the day. Here -6.5 at the 800 reflective of his "flop out" style, before +2.1 mid race and +6.0 running away. His other 3 wins saw last 400 splits of +5.5, +7.1 and +5.0. While he's yet to race out of the "1000 metres bubble" his ability to relax and work through his gears strongly suggests he'll cope with 1200 going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 16/11

    Briasa
    Randwick
    Oct 5, 2024

    The 0.5 length 4th in Race 10

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 14th on the day

    Summary

    Was 5 weeks between runs after an excellent +0.5 length above benchmark win Rosehill over 1100, while here after conceding from wide missed the placed, but has produced a better IVR figure and had the race shape dead against. -8.6 at the 800 and -1.8 in the mid race was a "nothing" first 800, but he closed with an excellent +5.9 which was the best last 400 of his career. Trending the right way and 3rd up 2nd prep from here could produce a big new PB without surprise.

    Subsequently: Winner Kenso 30/10 then winner $1million Hunter Newcastle 16/11

    Niance
    Caulfield
    Oct 19, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 5

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 5yo who came to play first up to get black type, matching her Australian PB that she set 2nd up Sandown last March after a -2.2 first up win Pakenham. That strongly suggests she's immediately an improved mare this time in. Good early speed going +2.1 at the 800, before -1.5 mid race, and -6.2 last 400. Did actually dip 1.4 lengths from the 400 to 200, before improving 0.6 of a length last 200 under full pressure. Strong wet track indicator figure of +8.5, and we look forward to measuring her progress. More to come!

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 16/11

    Kin
    Caulfield
    Jun 29, 2024

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 2

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    4yo mare first up with just 2 prior wins, but a very strong SP profile reflective of a genuine talent who's often had circumstances against her. Primarily getting back too far, but here with good market support, Damian Lane had her out early just 1.3 lengths from the lead, and from there was able to use her trademark closing speed. -2.0 at the 800, -0.6 in the mid race, before +1.9 last 400 on a deteriorating track. Has an all time PB of +1.2 set at Gosford May 2023, and +1.1 set here in December, with multiple +4.1 to +5.7 last 400 sprints. Handles wet ground and looks set for a very strong campaign.

    Subsequently: Spelled and resumed 16/10 Caulfield 2nd. Unplaced Flemington Derby Day then winner Caulfield 16/11

    Pericles
    Caulfield
    Sep 21, 2024

    The 4 length 3rd in Race 8

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 24th on the day

    Summary

    Regressed from his booming +3.6 lengths above benchmark win at Moonee Valley a fortnight earlier, but was absolutely entitled to given the high pressure race shape on the soft track. +5.8 stalking the lead was 7 lengths faster race to race on inferior ground, and why he was unable to sustain his position. +1.1 mid race before a complete -9.4 last 400 tank out, that included losing 2.6 lengths last 200 in isolation. Be very wary of writing him off going forward now rock hard fit, and at time of writing he's heading to the Epsom. He ran 2nd in the autumn Doncaster Randwick mile, and can run to his best there again without surprise.

    Subsequently: Rosehill 12/10 and Randwick 19/10 before winner $2 million Five Diamonds Rosehill 09/11

    Fire Star
    Warwick Farm
    Oct 16, 2024

    The 2.4 length winner of Race 6

    +1.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Airborne! Resumed this prep gelded off sharp trials, but took three runs to get going and show the genuine early speed he possesses. However here he's gone from best of the day at the Warwick Farm Monday meeting with +0.7 lengths above benchmark winning over 1100, to improving another length stepping to 1200. At the 800 was going a fast +2.9 lengths above benchmark and virtually matched it going +2.2 in the mid race. Gassed out late despite winning easily going +1.4 from the 400 to 200, but then only -1.4 last 200. He's ready for a Saturday ratings race off this and can win again if he holds this level.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 09/11

    Via Sistina
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 26, 2024

    The 8 length winner of the Cox Plate

    +14.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    This freak performance has put her in the stratosphere at a genuine Winx level (her best IVR figure was +16.3 set winning the 2015 Cox Plate). Sat 6 lengths off a brutal lead speed of +17.9 in going +11.9, before +6.2 in the mid race and +4.8 last 400. Raw time was +22.9 before adjustments for track speed and tempo. Her last 400 was 6.8 lengths faster than any other runner! Her 3 other Australian wins - all off soft tempos - produced +3.1, +2.9 and +2.6, but here we found out what she could do in a firm track murderous pressure race shape! 

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington Champions Stakes 09/11

    Mr Brightside
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 27, 2024

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 4

    +4.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Lowered his colours to PRIDE OF JENNI, but did so elevating his IVR time race to race from in a blistering race shape on a good track, after beating her Flemington on very wet ground. +3.0 at the 800 was the outer range of his early speed comfort zone, yet he was 7 lengths from the mare! +3.0 in the mid race meant brilliant precision from Williams getting him to match his speed, with an "all out" +6.5 last 400. Raw time of +12.4 reflected the firm ground, but also the talent of the first two home. Did lose a length last 200. His all time best is +5.1 and he can probably get there next. Will it be good enough???

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield and 4th Moonee Valley Cox Plate, before back to 1600 and winner Champions Mile Flemington 09/11

    Belclaire
    Randwick
    Oct 26, 2024

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 8

    +3.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    A brilliant display of sustained speed - and a perfect front-running ride - from this Ex-NZ 7yo mare 3rd up in her first local prep now with the Bjorn Baker stable. Led going +2.4 at the 800, +2.6 in the mid race and +3.8 last 400 including last 2 micro splits of +1.9 from the 400 to 200 and +1.9 again last 200. This strongly suggests this is her very best, but if she can maintain it, she'll remain very hard to beat going forward, and note her two Group 1 wins to date were at her 10th and 9th run for the prep, so her ability to handle racing is established.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 09/11

    Sunshine in Paris
    Rosehill
    Sep 14, 2024

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    +3.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Outstanding return from this high class mare, and amazingly with a near identical performance from this race last year when +3.1 lengths above benchmark. Here -5.1 at the 800 effectively 4.3 lengths from the "real" lead, (lone leader BELCLARE was going at an unsustainable +2.8) before an outstanding 10.9 length mid race squeeze going +5.8 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was +5.7 showing she sustained her close. Was twice close up in Group 1 sprints during the autumn with +2.6 and +2.1 and could well be at a new level. Her challenge if going to the Everest (likely) next start is (typically) being able to find 2-3 lengths.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Everest, then 2nd Rosehill 02/11. Winner Flemington Champions Sprint 09/11

    Sunshine In Paris
    Rosehill
    Nov 2, 2024

    The 1.8 length 2nd in Race 7

    +3.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Hi quality mare who has produced another excellent performance with this +3.3 just eclipsing +3.2 and +3.1 as her next best all time IVR times. +3.4 at the 800 was the fastest she's ever gone first section, yet she was nearly 7 lengths from the (crazy fast) lead! +3.9 in the mid race meant she was the only runner in the first 7 home increasing her speed, before -2.7 last 400 with every runner depleted. That even first 2 sections should assist avoiding flatness at Flemington tomorrow, and particularly if it's the usual "building" speed. Deserves great respect.

    Subsequently: Winner Champions sprint Flemington 09/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.