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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
February 15
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Is It Me
    Ballarat
    Dec 7, 2024

    The 1.6 length 4th in Race 10

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Was a month between runs and ridden conservatively from the wide barrier in this 3rd up run, and the booming sustained close from too far back says he's now spot on. -7.5 at the 800, before +2.9 in the mid race. That's a 10.3 length squeeze and he's sustained it home with +5.4. Best last 1200 of the day, the 3rd best last 600 and the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the day. Settling closer in the run can see him produce a benchmark range performance which would be very hard to beat at this time of year.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Pakenham Cup Day then winner Flemington 18/01. Winner again Flemington 15/02.

    Is It Me
    Flemington
    Jan 18, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 9

    +0.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing 5yo who we sizzled from an excellent -1.6 at Ballarat two starts earlier when closing with the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of the day, but was very plain at Pakenham on the 14 day back up. Here with 4 weeks between runs, has produced a new PB, and given this is BM84 grade, can win again before the "serious" stakes races start. -2.8 at the 800 had him relaxed and 6.7 lengths from the lead. +2.6 in the mid race before +4.6 last 400 including last bit best bit +3.1 last 200 in isolation. Seemingly the key is keeping his runs spaced going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 15/02

    Fangirl
    Randwick
    Sep 21, 2024

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 8

    +4.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    One of the real rock stars of Australian racing, and here 2nd up from an excellent +2.3 lengths above benchmark return four weeks earlier and a barrier trial 09/09 to progress, has exploded towards her all time PB of +5.6 set in last year's King Charles. -12.5 at the 800 settling rearward in her usual pattern and on this occasion 5.8 lengths from the lead. +4.0 from the 800 to 400 meant a booming 16.5 length squeeze, and she then increased into a seriously elite +10.1 last 400 which was the best of the day at the end of a mile. Four weeks until her next run fits last year's pattern and she's bang on track.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 19/10 Randwick, 3rd Flemington Champions mile 05/11. Spelled first up winner  Randwick 15/02

    Skybird
    Flemington
    Sep 14, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 9

    +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day.

    Summary

    Evolving mare who has produced a new PB from +1.3 and a clear best ever first up run from +0.3 in just missing on very wet ground. -10.9 at the 800, before -6.0 mid race and -0.8 last 400. Peaked going +0.9 from the 400 to 200, before losing 2.5 lengths in isolation last 200. Her ability to relax and sustain a close says she can comfortably step up in trip from here, and a long term goal of the Empire Rose would be no surprise. 

    Subsequently: First up next prep also on wet ground winner Lightning Stakes 15/02

    Magic Time
    Randwick
    Oct 26, 2024

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 8

    +2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Just missed, but an excellent elevation from only -1.3 first up Flemington, and finding a high sustained pressure 1400 with all the way dual Group 1 winning NZ mare BELCLAIRE getting chasers out of their comfort zone. +0.1 at the 800 sitting 2nd line, +3.4 in the mid race and +4.2 last 400, but this included a 0.4 length taper last 200. Has three performances between +2.3 and +2.7 and is set to run to that from here.

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 09/11. Spelled then winner Randwick 15/02

    Magic Time
    Rosehill
    Nov 9, 2024

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 7

    +2.0 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Another excellent run when again 2nd to BELCAIRE, but here had to produce 6 lengths more in the mid race and do so while trapped 3 wide no cover. -2.7 at the 800, before +6.3 mid race. Last 400 was +2.8 losing 0.6 last 200. Is 4th up next start and last spring won the Rupert Clarke 4th up. Anything in the mid 2 range at this time of year can be a winning figure and that looks likely going forward with ordinary luck and health.

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up winner Randwick 15/02

    Yorkshire
    Rosehill
    Feb 1, 2025

    The 0.9 length winner of Race 10

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Came here at deep odds on after an easy but modest time Wyong win when -2.2 lengths below benchmark. There he stalked a soft tempo, whereas here in going +1.8 at the 800 he was 5.6 lengths faster race to race, but still 3.7 lengths from the flying leader. +0.9 in the mid race, before +3.6 last 400, including +2.4 last 200 racing away with "last bit best bit". He's smashed his PB from benchmark, and has stated that he's trending upwards in a big way. This is BM88 company, and stakes racing looks his next step.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 15/02

    Smokin' Princess
    Flemington
    Jan 11, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 3

    -1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 24th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled her from her lead in 2nd at Pakenham when a similar -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day, but this was a significantly softer race shape, so has "got away with a bludge" and she should be very hard to stop from going back to back from here. -11.7 at the 800 was nearly 8 lengths slower first 800, before -1.3 in the mid race - meaning a solid 10.4 length squeeze - and +4.2 last 400. This is her "turn of foot" level, and she's better suited in a faster tempo and/or over further. 3 excellent runs this time in and is still trending upwards.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 24/01. Winner Flemington 15/02

    Revelare
    Sandown
    Feb 1, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    -2.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    Firstly we've pulled back from the raw (track record) +4.0 time for the IVR figure, but it was a smart effort and one that said benchmark is a conservative target going forward allowing for slowdowns. +2.5 at the 800 while mid field was an amazing 38 lengths faster early from a week prior, before +0.4 in the mid race, and +1.1 last 400. Had a 3.4 length slowdown from the 600 to 400 and a 2 length taper late. At time of writing is heading to Flemington 2000 next start and that looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner 2000 Flemington 15/02 

    Revelare
    Sandown Lakeside
    Jan 25, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 2

    -7.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 63rd on the day

    Summary

    We're stamping him for winning a "barrier trial for prizemoney" in this 5 horse field which was literally at below hurdle speed. Why? A phenomenal closing sprint when asked, and a profile of being lightly raced with good upside. -35.5 at the 800, before +0.6 in the mid race and +11.1 last 400, with +6.5 the last 200 in isolation. For context he ran the 4th best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 of the day at the end of 1400 regardless of the lack of early pressure. Importantly comfortably/easily won the start prior at Seymour when -2.0 lengths below benchmark. Is entered Saturday and should be very hard to beat.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown 01/02. Winner Flemington 15/02

    Another Wil
    Rosehill
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 9

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Four runs this prep for four appearances in Sizzlers, and off this best of the day dynamic win extending his PB from +0.6, we still don't know his ceiling! -0.1 at the 800, +1.6 in the mid race and +3.7 last 400. This sets him up to run to his best in this week's Doncaster, and of note his only two starts on heavy ground saw a "swimmers" wet track indicator of +12.8 and +13.8 albeit in Werribee and Moe maidens first two starts. Typically would need another 1.5 to 2.5 lengths improvement to win the big Randwick mile, and there's nothing to say he couldn't elevate to that level.

    RE-POSTING 10/02/25 with the context this was his previous PB prior to winning the CF Orr Saturday

    Duke De Sessa
    Caulfield
    Oct 19, 2024

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 9

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Won his Grand Final Caulfield Cup with a new PB from +0.6 set in his lead up run when 4th in the Turnbull a fortnight earlier, which included a brilliant on pace Harry Coffey ride sapping all energy from those back in the field. Stalked the lead going +1.6 at the 800 which was good speed on the soft conditions, before -3.2 in the mid race, and -8.2 last 400 including a complete complete late gas out going just -5.1 last 200. Not entered for the Melbourne Cup, but if they keep him going the Queen Elizabeth on the last day of the Flemington carnival looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 09/11 to VIA SISTINA and spelled. First up winner Caulfield 08/02

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.