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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
March 29
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Dubai Honour
    Randwick
    Apr 8, 2023

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +5.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    UK star who backed up his dominant Ranvet win leading in three weeks earlier when +5.9 lengths above benchmark with another outstanding performance. Just -27.3 at the 800 when 6 lengths from the lead, +2.5 meant a huge 30 length squeeze, and he sustained it home with +1.7 last 400. Best last 600 and 3rd best last 200 of the day at the end of 2000 metres. Regardless of lack of pace early, that's blistering late. Let's see how he matches up on the world scale from here!

    REPOSTING AS THE NEXT AUSTRALIAN RUN WAS WINNING TANCRED ROSEHILL APRIL 2025

    Just Folk
    Flemington
    Feb 15, 2025

    The 1.7 length 3rd in Race 6

    -3.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Got his preferred wet ground, but also a high pressure 1400 which he wasn't ready for just 2nd up with 8 weeks between runs. -4.5 at the 800 had him 6.7 lengths from the leader who was "flying" allowing for the testing conditions. -2.7 in the mid race, before a complete tank out finishing with -7.3 last 400. The last 200 in isolation was only -6.9. He's looking for his preferred mile range from here and this can be the "come on" run to peak. Thrives in NSW if sent there peaking last prep winning a Hawkesbury feature with +1.6 lengths above benchmark.

    Subsequently: Unplaced on firm ground Flemington 01/03 before Winner Rosehill 01/04 at $14

    Treasurethe moment
    Flemington
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 8

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Wow! Is it possible to underrate a filly who had won 5 in a row including a Group 1 Oaks before this race? Perhaps! She was super smashing her previous PB of +0.2 set first up, and was able to do so finding a race of genuine pressure on clean ground. +4.3 at the 800 sitting 2.5 lengths from the lead. +1.0 in the mid race, and +0.9 last 400 showed she held her speed. However the micro-splits showed she lost 0.8 of a length from the 600 to 200, before a sharp 1.2 length rebound last 200 despite running away winning easily. That says more to come and Sydney awaits!

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 01/04

    Ceolwulf
    Rosehill
    Mar 22, 2025

    The 0.2 length 3rd in Race 7

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Three runs this time in have been +1.8, +1.1 (when back to 1300) and +1.9, and has yet to see a race of high pressure. Here -6.5 at the 800 when 3rd line, -1.3 mid race and +7.3 last 400. Backed up his +2.9 Epsom win 4th up with an outstanding +5.2 in the King Charles. He'll likely need that level in the Doncaster such is the strength of this year's race, but he's on target for it. Beaten 0.3 of a length in last year's Derby on a heavy surface with an excellent +8.5 wet track indicator, so he clearly has versatility.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 01/04

    Nepotism
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 1.1 length 3rd in Race 4

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 41st on the day

    Summary

    (Added 31/03 customers emailed.) Excellent debut placing in Group 3 on a very strong day. Settled midfield going -5.8 at the 800, before a very strong midrace squeeze of 9.4 lengths with +3.6 from the 800 to 400. Only a slight late taper running his last 400 in +2.9. Has shown here and in trials an ability to relax early before closing hard, so the 1400 looks ideal. The obvious caveat is being unknown in wet ground

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 01/04

    Jokers Grin
    Ascot
    Nov 30, 2024

    The 0.9 length 2nd in Race 5

    Benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Short course specialist who tasted defeat for the first time since his debut which was also over 1200 metres, after 5 in a row at 1000. However he's produced another good run at his benchmark best (to date) after sitting 3 wide no cover throughout. -0.8 at the 800, +4.4 in the mid race, before a tapering +2.2 last 400 losing 2.8 lengths last 200 in isolation. If given a month between runs to the Summer Scorcher January 1 back to the pure sprint trip, he should have speed back in his legs and take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up winner Ascot 29/03

    Aviatress
    Caulfield
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 2.8 length winner of Race 3

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Airborne coming off best of the day SA Parks track win three weeks earlier when producing a new PB of +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day, to here extending her level with a dominant on pace performance. Did have the perfect race shape and conditions to suit in sharing the lead going just -1.1 and -0.4 first two sections, but her +4.8 last 400 was an excellent turn of foot that included the 3rd best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 of the day. Did only have a short 77 day break between preps so has effectively been racing since April, so is this her current best? Either way is clearly currently thriving.

    Subsequently: 4th Flemington 05/24 and spelled. Resumed winner Morphettville 29/03

    Deakin
    Pakenham
    Dec 21, 2024

    The 3 length winner of Race 5

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Import having his 2nd local run after an in-traffic 7th at Ballarat when just -5.3 lengths below benchmark. Here he's eclipsed his -1.8 overseas profile with more to come off this dominant win. -4.2 at the 800 sharing the lead, -0.1 in the mid race and +2.7 last 400 running away. This is just BM78 level, so he's got the profile to work through his grades over summer. We look forward to following his progress, with his "better further" profile says his best is still in front of him.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 18/01 then Listed winner Moonee Valley 21/02. Winner Roy Higgins Flemington 29/03

    Deakin
    Moonee Valley
    Feb 21, 2025

    The 5.5 length winner of Race 7

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Stayer on the rise who we stamped Pakenham Cup day 2nd local start when -1.2 lengths below benchmark, and here after a "sideways" run Flemington, has exploded with a new PB in an absolute domination. +0.6 at the 800, +0.7 in the mid race, before +5.7 last 400 when bolting in. This raw time of +7.0 was pegged down 6.6 lengths allowing for the slick firm track, but regardless it was an excellent win. At time of writing is avoiding the Adelaide Cup and concentrating on Flemington 2600 from here. Should take a stack of beating.

    Subsequently: Winner 29/03 Flemington Roy Higgins 2600

    A Little Deep
    Caulfield
    Aug 17, 2024

    The one length winner of Race 1

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by this lightly raced 5yo, producing a new PB by a length and with a solid expectation there's more to come. -0.9 at the 800, +0.5 in the mid race, and +2.0 last 400. However note she lost 0.8 of a length last 200 in isolation. In her Moe and Moonee Valley wins previous prep she produced the best last 600 and 400 of the day, and in her Flemington 2nd January produced a last 400 of +4.2. That strongly suggests that with a conditioning elevation +2 range is possible this time in. That says more wins ahead with ordinary luck and health.

    Subsequently: Winner Listed Moonee Valley 07/09

    REPOSTING FIRST UP NEXT PREP WINNER FLEMINGTON 29/03

    King Zephyr
    Sandown Hillside
    Mar 5, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 8

    +1.2 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo on the rise who made it two easy wins from two starts this time in, elevating from -2.9 at Pakenham over 1200 ranked 11th on the night. Here -0.1 at the 800 when 4.4 lengths from the lead, before a solid mid race move going +7.5 from the 800 to 400. Closed with +1.1 losing 0.6 of a length last 200 in isolation. That strongly suggests more to come. This is basic BM64 level, and at this time of year rising to Saturday class in the BM78-84 range if asked should be no issue. 

    Subsequently: Winner 26/03 Sandown

    Sandpaper
    Randwick
    Feb 15, 2025

    The 1.2 length 2nd in Race 4

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Get him away from YORKSHIRE! Has run 2nd twice in his last two starts to that promising galloper, but this 5yo in his first prep with the on fire Baker stable just needs to rebound to his +0.1 to +0.7 level he produced 1st and 3rd up to be a very strong chance of going one better in similar. +1.0 at the 800 was 4.5 lengths slower than his previous start strongly suggesting he was slightly flat on the 14 day back up. +0.4 in the mid race before -1.0 last 400. Would be no surprise if they bring him back to 1400, and possibly with a 3-6 week break? 

    Subsequently: Winner Newcastle 1400 Group 3 March 7

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.