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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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November 1
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Stefi Magnetica
    Rosehill
    Sep 13, 2025

    The 3.2 length 4th in Race 7

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    May need one more, but this was the perfect kick off run from this dual Group 1 winning mare, after being soft in the market. Just -8.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead. +0.2 in the mid race meant an excellent 8.6 length squeeze, before +2.1 last 400. Note lost a length last 200 in isolation as also seen via the 13th best last 400, but just the 24th best last 200 as she peaked on her run. This matched her first up figure from last prep, before going +0.3 when 2nd up and winning the Doncaster with an all time PB of +3.6.

    Subsequently: Winner $2million Invitational Randwick 25/10

    Via Sistina
    Randwick
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    +2.1 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Australia's best horse, who brought up her 9th local win and 8th best of the day performance, and did so on heavy ground with the significance being her only unplaced Australian run to date was at Flemington on a similarly rated surface. Here just -20.7 at the 800 when 6.2 lengths from the lead. In the mid race went -2.9 meaning a 17.8 length squeeze, before a benchmark close. Context was the 3rd best last 600 of the day, but the 13th best last 200 as the exertion told despite winning. Last prep she elevated from +2.4 to +4.3 and that looks a conservative target from here.

    Subsequently: Twice 3rd Flemington then winner Cox Plate 25/10

    Via Sistina
    Flemington
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 8

    +2.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Champion mare on the way to the Cox Plate and while beaten here, again found a totally unsuitable race shape off the barrier trial tempo in the Makybe 3 weeks earlier. -16.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800, after -20.7 first up Randwick early and -27.1 previous start so three races where going significantly slower than her capacity. However a booming +22.7 length squeeze with +6.0 in the mid race followed by +5.8 last 400. She simply couldn't do that if she wasn't still at the elite level, and with 3 weeks until her Grand Final, she clearly remains the testing material.

    Subsequently: Winner Cox Plate 25/10

    Transatlantic
    Caulfield
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 7

    +3.6 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his two lead in runs Flemington and Sandown saying they were the perfect lead in runs to peak in this Grand Final Toorak, and he along with a brilliant sustained speed front running ride from Mark Zahra delivered big time with a new PB from +2.9 set Eagle Farm last December. +9.7 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was the fastest he's ever gone from +6.9 at Eagle Farm 07/06. Understandably tapered from there with -0.6 and -3.3 last 2 sections. Some concerns of flatness if racing within a fortnight, but his next goal is the Five Diamonds 08/11 and he should take beating there as well.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 25/10

    Lindermann
    Rosehill
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 2.2 length winner of Race 8

    +3.0 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    "Machine like" warrior who makes his own luck out in front and keeps running! Two appearances in September Sizzlers with +2.7 and +3.3 at Randwick in a narrow win then narrow defeat, with this slightly softer figure due to the "bludge" he got in the midrace. -1.5 at the 800 when leading, before -1.8 from the 800 to 400 was a Nash Rawiller cruise special, and then closing with a blistering +6.2 above benchmark last 400. This was the fastest last 400 IVR split of his career, so no wonder he never looked threatened! His consistency at this level is remarkable with 8 runs between +2.5 and +3.3.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 25/10

    Attica
    Randwick
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 1.9 length length winner of Race 4

    +0.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    Very strong win in blinkers first time by a rising stayer smashing his previous PB of -3.7 lengths below benchmark when winning a midweek Warwick Farm maiden on debut two starts earlier, and the big negative of a mid race slowdown strongly suggests there's more to come. Settled at the rear of the field when unable to "find a spot" from wide, but was still going +5.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 despite being 6.2 lengths from the lead. -1.3 in the mid race meant a 6.7 lengths loss of momentum, before +0.8 last 400 with last bit best bit +1.6 last 200 in isolation. The Spring Champion looks a likely next step.

    Subsequently: Winner Spring Champion 25/10 Randwick

    Observer
    Caulfield
    Oct 11, 2025

    The 2.5 length 3rd in Race 8

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    Beware the unlucky runner and this colt was certainly that, but he's virtually matched his best which was -1.0 length below benchmark twice at his first two starts, but did so "stuck" in a high pressure race shape going +8.5 lengths above benchmark at the 800 sitting 2nd line. That was the fastest he's gone to date in the first section by 5.4 lengths. +0.1 in the mid race before -9.6 last 400. Numbers aside he hit a severe "dead end" in the straight, so whatever he improves by from here, it should be significant. The Vase Moonee Valley over 2040 looks the natural progression from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Vase Moonee Valley 25/10

    Beast Mode
    Moonee Valley
    Sep 26, 2025

    The 2 length winner of Race 3

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Fit, clean ground, around a bend, blinkers on and handlebars down! Excellent display of sustained speed over the quirky 955 course, with -1.8, +3.4 and +2.9 over the 3 splits, with the context of the best last 800 and 600 of the night and still the 3rd best last 400. Of note it's matched his career best, which was set August 2024 in then his 5th start for Team Hayes (Ex-QLD) at Caulfield over 1100. Would think back here Cox Plate Eve in similar would be ideal next start kept fresh?

    Subsequently: Winner Cox Plate Day Moonee Valley 25/10

    Apulia
    Flemington
    Nov 5, 2024

    The 0.6 length 3rd in Race 6

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him first up when beaten a nose over 1500 and -1.0 length below benchmark so effectively matching it, but this was a brutally run 1800 from a building tempo race shape at Moonee Valley and as such we expect it to really be the "come on" run. +6.6 at the 800 was 11 lengths faster race to race, but he was 7 lengths from the leader! -2.3 mid race and -0.9 last 400 was understandable deterioration. The family has a great record in the Eclipse at Caulfield and that could be an ideal next race from here? Either way he looks in great shape for the summer.

    Subsequently: Missed 11 months racing then first up winner Moonee Valley 24/10

    Vivy Air
    Doomben
    May 24, 2025

    The 0.7 length 5th in Race 6

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Produced a similar run on pure figure to Gosford, but here had little luck in the straight, so there's full expectations of more to come next start. -5.9 at the 800, before -1.8 and +1.3 last two sections. When fit and with clear air her last 400 profile is fully franked about +4, and last prep her 5th and 6th runs were +0.5 and +1.5 (PB) both at Randwick over the mile. Next start will be 5th up again and it's likely to be at Eagle Farm where the big track looks ideal. In a similar stakes level mares mile, she should be very hard to hold out with ordinary luck.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Eagle Farm 07/06, nose 2nd Grafton 13/07, Newcastle 2nd Group 3 Sep 9, before - finally! - winner Randwick 18/10

    Diamond Scene
    Ascot
    Nov 9, 2024

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 6

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    This is a middle distance horse on the rise, who has produced an excellent 5th best of the day time, and extended his PB from +0.2 set here over a mile October 2023. Just -9.0 at the 800, before a strong 11.2 length squeeze going +2.1 in the mid race, and closed it off with +4.9 last 400. He's previously also ran last sections of +4.0, +4.3, +6.9, +7.3 and +5.2 so it's his real asset. Ran in last year's Perth Cup when an end of prep 9th, but this year with the new stable he looks better placed if heading there.

    Subsequently: 2nd Ascot 07/12 then winner Ascot 18/12

    Repost: First up winner Ascot 18/10 Group 3

    Linebacker
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 7

    +3.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    3rd up first prep as a gelding and hasn't just won the Randwick Guineas, but obliterated his previous PB of -0.7 in doing so. After a slow jump previous start going -8.5 at the 800, here he was away cleanly and flew stalking the lead. +1.9 at the 800, before +5.1 in the mid race so a "serious" fast and faster set up. Last 400 was +1.4 in an understandable taper. This has him on the doorstep of the usual +4 range to win a Doncaster, and as such deserves genuine respect heading there.

    Subsequently: Unplaced- luckless - Doncaster 05/04 and then spelled. Unplaced first up Randwick 06/09 then winner Randwick 18/10

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.