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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Moonee Valley
March 22
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Mare of Mt Buller
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.6 length 2nd in Race 5

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Looking for her first win since February 2024 - 5 placings since including twice at stakes level - and here 2nd up with a trial to progress since her resuming run, has produced a big new PB. -6.0 at the 800 had her 7.3 lengths from leader/winner LITTLE BAIA, before +5.6 from the 800 to 400. That's an excellent 11.6 length mid race squeeze, and she sustained it home with +4.1 last 400. She now has the ideal platform to step up in trip, and the Epona over 1900 Golden Slipper day looks an ideal target next start.

    Subsequently: Winner Epona 22/03

    Clean Energy
    Flemington
    Mar 1, 2025

    The 0.4 length 3rd in Race 5

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return despite missing 280 days racing, and it justified the very strong market support pre-race. -3.3 at the 800, +0.5 in the mid race, and +1.2 last 400. However lost 2.1 lengths in isolation last 200, and that says conditioning to come. Won her only two previous starts, and they were both on very wet ground. While only -3.2 and -3.1 overall, she produced a very strong wet track indicator of +8.7 in the latter at Doomben. She's got more to come, and is likely to get conditions to suit heading north. 

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 22/03

    Private Harry
    Sunshine Coast
    Jan 4, 2025

    The 2.4 length winner of Race 9

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the meeting

    Summary

    Had won three from three leading in, and while the margins were 3.4, 7.1 and 1.2, the IVR times were -4.0, -2.2 and -3.8 so very modest though clearly untested. Now however with this excellent step forward he's gone to the level that says he should be trusted as a colt on the rise. +1.2 at the 800, +1.2 in the mid race, before +2.9 last 400 so a very strong raw time of +5.2 lengths above benchmark. Now listed as spelling he looks a player at the next QLD winter carnival. (Assumed target.)

    Subsequently: First up winner Galaxy Rosehill 22/03

    Schwarz
    Moonee Valley
    Jan 24, 2025

    The 2 length winner of Race 7

    -1.0 lengths below benchmark

    Summary

    In short; a big booming sustained lead speed win which says he's at a new level this time in! +3.3 at the 800 was explosive out of the stalls, and +2.1 in the mid race meant he sustained it and gassed out all chasers. Closed with -3.3 last 400, and note a complete "off the cliff" -2.9 last 200 despite winning well. Has a PB of +0.3 at Randwick early August over 1200, but looks set to sail past that from here as a slow maturing stallion. Should run boldly in the Orr which is his next start at time of writing.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Orr and freshened before winning Group 1 William Reid 22/03

    Wodeton
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 4

    Summary

    Disappointed the market again after being beaten as tight favourite a fortnight earlier, but this was the best run of his career, and with blinkers to come for Grand Final trainer Chris Waller, we warn be wary of writing him off! -4.5 at the 800 sitting 2nd line was actually 4.4 lengths faster than his previous best first section, while +4.0 mid race was 2 lengths faster. To underline race to race he went 6.4 lengths faster first two sections from 22/02 lead in. Last 400 was +1.5, but he lost 1.1 length last 200 in isolation. That strongly suggests a fitness peak to come. Will need a new PB, but from a trendline perspective is set up to produce it!

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Golden Slipper 22/03 Rosehill 

    Tempted
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 3

    +1.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    This was a big win! Was clearly set to win the Blue Diamond from her solid -2.0 nose 2nd at Rosehill when having momentum stopping traffic, so instead has "exploded" here showing what she's capable of and it's a very good level. Settled at the 800 going -2.5 when 5.6 lengths from the lead. From there +4.4 in the mid race meaning an excellent 7 length squeeze. Last 400 was +3.6, so the close was strong and sustained. It also included a one length slowdown from the 600 to 200. Usual caveat of a filly in her first prep, but the reality is if she holds or improves off this figure, she's likely to be deep in the Golden Slipper finish.

    Subsequently: 3rd Golden Slipper 22/03 Rosehill

    Marhoona
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 3

    +0.9 length above benchmark ranked 22nd on the day

    Summary

    2nd start and a big elevation! Won on debut Canterbury Friday night 07/02 with just -4.2, and he has gone considerably better and it was due to "finding" 5 lengths of early speed race to race. +1.2 at the 800, before +3.8 in the mid race so "fast and faster". Last 400 was -0.1, but it included a "flat spot" dip of 2.4 lengths from the 400 to 200, before a 1.4 length last 200 rebound. Likely to miss the Slipper due to insufficient prizemoney, but perhaps a race like the Percy Sykes will be her "consolation". If she holds or improves on this figure, she'll be very hard to stop from going one better. 

    Subsequently: Winner Golden Slipper 22/03 Rosehill 

    Gringotts
    Randwick
    Mar 1, 2025

    The 0.2 length 3rd in Race 9

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Here off just a 77 day break, has just missed, and said he's ready to return to the winner's circle placed right. Just -9.2 at the 800 had him 5 lengths from the lead, +6.6 in the mid race meant a best of day 15.8 length squeeze, before +7.1 last 400. This included a 1.4 length dip from the 400 to 200. Last prep went to a new level going +3.7, +2.2 and +2.0 which included the Big Dance at Randwick, and looks set to at least return to that level. Ajax Stakes into the Doncaster looks the likely path, and his limited exposure to rain affected ground includes three big wet track indicator figures of +7.8, +8.5 and +10.2.

    Subsequently: Winner George Ryder 22/03 Rosehill 

    Broadsiding
    Randwick
    Mar 8, 2025

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 7

    +3.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Disappointed the market getting beaten at deep odds on but a/ Has produced his 2nd best ever IVR figure behind the "outlier" Cox Plate +4.4 chasing VIA SISTINA and b/ found a significantly different race shape to his first up win at Rosehill a fortnight earlier. -0.3 at the 800 and +5.8 in the mid race, meant an 8.4 length improvement of speed first two sections combined. Last 400 was still a strong +2.4, but was tapering after such a significant exertion. Should be very hard to beat from here with a big rebound expected, and of course he thrives on wet ground were the weather to turn.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill Guineas 22/03

    Shanwah
    Caulfield
    Feb 22, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 3

    -2.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 38th on the day

    Summary

    This stayer is climbing, and the Group 2 win he picked up here may not be the last of his stakes win. Came off a benchmark win midweek when 2nd best of he day Heath track 10/02 and winning by 3 lengths, and while the figure wasn't as strong, he's got away with a bludge! -2.8 and -2.1 first two sections, before +3.1 last 400. Last bit best bit going +2.2 last 200 in isolation. This is his first prep as a gelding, and it's most unlikely we've seen the best of him.

    Subsequently: Winner Moonee Valley 22/03

    Via Sistina
    Randwick
    Mar 1, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 8

    +4.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Australia's best horse as she proved in her astonishing Cox Plate win with a Winx like +14.3 lengths above benchmark, but this 2nd up performance - from +2.4 - is her 3rd best local run from +4.7 set in the McKinnon Flemington 09/11, and screams there's a massive peak to come going forward. -4.2 at the 800 had her 4.5 lengths from the lead. +5.2 in the mid race was a 9.4 length squeeze, before +7.8 last 400. Race to race her last 2 sections were similar, but her first section was a 10.6 length improvement of early speed! If staying fit and well - and hopefully remaining on clean ground - good luck beating her from here!

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 22/03

    Autumn Glow
    Randwick
    Sep 21, 2024

    The 1.2 length winner of race 7

    +1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Rising star of Australian racing who made it three from three, and while she "regressed" from +3.0 lengths above benchmark in her lead in run, but here went 15.5 lengths slower first section meaning it was impossible to do more! -0.1 in the mid race, before a booming +7.7 last 400, including +4.6 last 200 in isolation. We see nothing in the data to doubt her going forward and continue to look forward to measuring her progress.

    Subsequently: Spelled and winner 22/03 Rosehill

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.