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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Brave One
    Randwick
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 3

    -1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced and first prep as a gelding, and here 3rd up finally found clean ground and produced a run that says he'll progress from this BM72 class. (Note his first two runs were top 4 of the meeting, but -3.1 and -4.0 on heavy Canterbury 30/04 and then "knee deep" heavy Randwick 31/05.) Here stalked a modest tempo going -5.8 and -5.2 first two sections which smothered the opportunity to produce more, but an excellent +3.5 last 400 and +2.9 last 200 in isolation. 6th best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 for further context. Should elevate towards benchmark with a more solid tempo.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 05/07. Spelled first up 2nd Randwick 01/11 then winner Newcastle 15/11

    Meridiana
    Rosehill
    Sep 27, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 1

    -2.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 42nd on the day

    Summary

    With the obvious caveat that this is Midway company, this mare has resumed with a strong win at just her 5th career run and starting her 2nd prep. -5.2 and -3.7 first two sections meant a cruisey tempo, but an excellent kick down closing with +5.6 last 400. This was the 8th best last 400 and 200 of a strong Group 1 day, and similar to her debut win at Kenso in March with +5.6 when the 2nd best last 400 of the day, and a Listed 4th Randwick 12/04 when +5.5 last 400 which was the 15th best of the elite Derby/Doncaster/TJ Smith/Sires day. More to come!

    Subsequently: 2nd Randwick 01/11 then winner Newcastle 15/11

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Oct 4, 2025

    The 0.6 length 2nd in Race 7

    +4.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Came from +0.3 first up over a 1000 metres, and with a trial to bring him on, he's beaten both his sprinting best - +3.4 winning the Oakleigh Plate over 1100 and all time best winning the All Aged over 1400 with +3.8 lengths above benchmark. Here relaxed early with his Grand Final the Everest going -4.7 lengths below benchmark at the 800 when 7.3 lengths from the lead. +5.4 in the mid race was an outstanding 10.4 length squeeze, and he sustained his speed home going +7.8 last 400. Best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day. Can he cope with near certain higher pressure next start??? Can't stay he won't!

    Subsequently: 3rd Everest 18/10, winner Russell Balding 01/11, winner Orr Caulfield 15/11

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.4 length 3rd in Race 7

    +3.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Produced a near identical run to a fortnight earlier when +4.2 lengths above benchmark, but on a much faster race shape. +0.9 at the 800 stalking the lead was 5.6 lengths faster race to race off a standing start. +1.9 in the mid race followed by +3.2 meant a "smoother" race shape as opposed to being asked to produce his booming finish. This can also assist him avoiding flatness into his likely next start in 14 days also here over 1300 metres. His All Aged Stakes win over 1400 in April was with +3.8 lengths above benchmark so the step up holds no fears.

    Subsequently: Winner Russell Balding Randwick 01/11. Winner Orr Caulfield 15/11

    Luana Miss
    Ascot
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 8

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Quality emerging 3yo filly who's now shown she can produce beyond 1000 metres after a dynamic first up win here over the short course 3 weeks earlier when +1.0 length above benchmark. -3.8 at the 800, before +1.4 and +4.2 last two sections. This included both a 1.5 length slowdown before the turn, and last bit best bit +2.7 last 200 in isolation. That ability to relax and quicken says the 1200 in Saturday's Placid Ark should hold no fears, and a more even race shape can see a stronger figure produced. 

    Subsequently: Winner Placid Ark 15/11

    Pure Excess
    Ascot
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 1.2 length 3rd in Race 8

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Four start maiden but emerged here with an unlucky run as the "gate closed" over the last 100 metres when clearly going to be in the finish. That aside, this is her clear best performance to date, and her profile says she's clearly had issues in the stalls, but resumed with a barrier blanket on, and this was her first clean jump so far. Sat 3rd line going -4.0, before -1.8 and a booming +7.4 last 400. That was the 6th best of the day, but just the 17th best last 200 as the rider had to take hold on the heels of the first two home. This is a good sign of talent and a win should be on her CV soon with ordinary luck and good manners. 

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot Champions Fillies 15/11 at $8:50

    Jokers Grin
    Ascot
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 6

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Quokka winner with an outstanding +3.5 lengths above benchmark win 26/04, and the "local hope" at time of writing, and he couldn't have had an easier set up for his return. Just -3.7 and -1.3 first two sections, before +5.4 last 400, with +4.3 last 200 in isolation. 4th best last 800, but the best last 400 and 200 of the day showing the "last bit best bit" close, which was his asset from his 2nd career start and first win. Would assume he goes to the Reeves from here 15/11 as his final lead in before the big Group 1.

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 15/11

    Sheza Alibi
    Flemington
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 2

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    2nd up first prep with Moody Coleman Ex-QLD and elevated from -2.2 at Caulfield over 1200, to a new PB in the blinkers and with more to come given she was only clear 200 metres out. -2.4 at the 800 had her 3.4 lengths from the lead, before +1.0 in the mid race and +3.9 last 400. Note she suffered a 1.1 length slowdown in traffic from the 400 to 200, before +3.9 explosion last 200 in isolation. Should sail past benchmark from here with a full momentum race shape and ordinary luck and health going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Sandown Guineas Caulfield 15/11

    Inkaruna
    Flemington
    Nov 6, 2025

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 7

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    Very consistent filly who found a softer tempo and track than the blistering Group 3 v the boys Turnbull Stakes day when beaten 3.6 lengths and -1.1 overall, and produced her best figure for the campaign. (Chasing her all time best of +0.1 when 3rd Randwick 08/03 at her 2nd career start.) Was beaten by her airborne stablemate POINT BARROW, but -6.2, -1.7 and +6.5 last 400 which was the 5th best last 400 of the day. This gives her an ideal platform to get to a new level at Caulfield in the $1 million Thoroughbred Club 15/01, and is clearly a key chance there.

    Subsequently: Winner $1 million Thoroughbred Club Caulfield 15/11

    Jimmysstar
    Randwick
    Nov 1, 2025

    The 2.7 length winner of Race 7

    +4.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Outstanding sprinter who went from +4.2 and +3.9 in his two lead in runs, both on firm tracks here over 1200, to a brand new level out slightly further and on a soft deck showing his outstanding capacity in the ground with a "swimmer" wet track indicator rating of +11.7. In a high pressure race shape was going +0.6 lengths above benchmark at the 800, but 4 lengths from the lead. Virtually matched it in the mid-race with benchmark from the 800 to 400, before -4.0 last 400. Will probably spell, but the main learnings from here is a wet Everest could see him winning that elite race without surprise.

    Subsequently: Winner Orr Stakes Caulfield 15/11

    Taken
    Flemington
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 3 length winner of Race 6

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Cruised to the front on his terms, and bolted in with a bludge! -4.3 at the 800 had him going 7.7 lengths slower race to race than a fortnight earlier at Sandown when winning by a nose with just -3.4 lengths below benchmark overall. +0.4 and -0.4 last 2 sections, but the 200 splits revealed a 1.4 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, before a solid 1.7 length rebound last 200 when asked. That was the 13th best last 200 of the day which is solid closing speed at the end of the mile. This was a clear PB stating he's a better horse this time in, and should remain very hard to beat going forward.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 21/07. Spelled and resumed winner Caulfield 15/11

    Skippers Canyon
    Caulfield
    Aug 16, 2025

    The 2 length 2nd in Race 2

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 47th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this was a combination of race shape and track conditions against coming off a booming first Australian start Sandown when -0.6 lengths below benchmark best of the day win over 1400 metres. There was going -3.0 lengths below benchmark at the 800 but 7.4 lengths from the lead, while here -11.8 first section meaning 8.8 lengths slower race to race, while 6.2 lengths from the lead. -2.9 in the mid race meant a 9 length squeeze, and that was through clearly the softest part of the track. +0.9 from the 400 to 200, but peaked on his run losing 2.8 last 200 in isolation. A hard rebound is likely from here!

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up winner Caulfield 15/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.