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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
January 17
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Althoff
    Randwick
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 4

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Modest IVR figure, but this was still very good! 1st up after 262 days away from a one run prep March which was his only previous run as a gelding, clearly not right post race given the long gap, and a friendless $21 said lack of stable expectations. Accordingly was out the back early with -8.9 at the 800 when 9.3 lengths from the lead. +0.7 in the mid race meant a 9.6 length squeeze, before +1.8 last 400. However the 200 increments showed a 2.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, and his last 200 was a booming 3.4 length pick up and the best of the day. Ready to smash his -1.8 PB with a big summer ahead.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 27/12 then winner Wyong 10/01

    Brave One
    Rosehill
    Jul 5, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 10

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him a fortnight earlier when winning at Randwick with -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 19th on the day, so here has improved his IVR data a length, but also top three on such a tough day to run time says there's more to come. -3.2 at the 800 was good speed in the going, but it had him 6.5 lengths from the flying leaders. -4.9 and -5.8 last two sections on borderline heavy ground was a sound close. Wet track indicator of just +2.6 says getting back onto clean ground looks ideal from here if possible. 

    Subsequently: Spelled. First up 2nd Randwick 01/11 then winner Newcastle 15/11

    King of Roseau
    Rosehill
    Jul 19, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 10

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    In the zone coming off a track/distance win 5 weeks earlier when -0.5 lengths above benchmark, but here has smashed that and produced an all time PB, fitting the bill that the gelding at the start of this prep has "turned him into a racehorse." -2.2 at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead, before +0.9 in the mid race and +3.1 last 400. There's another track/distance here in 3 weeks at BM94 level and that looks perfect for him, or will they have a "throw at the stumps" in the Missile at Randwick a week later???

    Subsequently: Winner Auries Star Flemington 02/08. REPOST MAGIC MILLIONS SPRINT WINNER 17/01/26

    Santanova
    Ascot
    Nov 29, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 1

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    With the caveat this is just a no metro win past year sprint, and it was a blanket finish, the reality was this 4yo mare starting just her 3rd prep with a "better further" profile, has resumed with a clear career PB from -2.3. Relaxed early going -3.5 at the 800 when 4 lengths from the lead in sharp tempo, before +0.2 in the mid race and +3.9 last 400. Context was the best last 800 and 600 of the day, but still the 4th best last 200 so clearly turned up fit. Any improvement from here over 1100-1200 should see her be able to work through the grades placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced then winner Ascot 17/01

    Hawker Hall
    Kembla Grange
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Turned up as favourite to start his 2nd full prep off two sharp trials with a previous PB of -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day Gosford mid June. Here -1.5 at the 800, before +3.0 in the mid race and +2.1 last 400. Track was starting to give out, so barrier 1 was at best no advantage and most probably a negative. He's only failed twice to date with one being at 1300 end of distance and the other on bog heavy ground, and this performance strongly suggests he's a stronger horse this time in. Looks set for success this summer and highly likely to add to his 3 career wins to date.

    Subsequently: Winner 07/12 Rosehill. Randwick 4th Jan 3 then winner Magic Millions day Gold Coast 17/01

    King of Roseau
    Flemington
    Aug 2, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 7

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    In the zone slightly extending his PB from +1.1 produced at Rosehill 5 weeks earlier, and not only made it three wins from three starts but all have been best of the day. -2.2 at the 800 was 3.8 lengths from the lead showing it was a high pressure race shape, before +0.9 in the mid race and +3.0 last 400 showing good sustained speed. Started his prep in April now gelded, and is clearly showing no signs of dropping away at present. Could pinch another stakes race without surprise, and particularly while he will have a race fitness edge on resuming runners at this time of year.

    Subsequently: Spelled. 4th, 2nd, 4th then Magic Milllions sprint winner Gold Coast 17/01

    Cross Tasman
    Randwick
    Dec 26, 2025

    The 2.6 length winner of Race 8

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Nice horse! 2nd up 2nd prep now gelded coming off a Kenso win which while just -5.5 lengths below benchmark, it did feature the best last 800, 600 and 200 of the day. Here -4.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800 was a 4 length improvement of speed while posted 3 wide no cover throughout. +0.2 in the mid race, before letting down with +5.2 last 400 in bolting in. This was the best last 400 and 200 of the meeting at the end of 1300 metres. His rating is just 74, so can keep working through the grades. We look forward to measuring his progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 17/01

    Snitzanova
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 13, 2025

    The one length 2nd in Race 7

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark

    Summary

    Huge run! Lightly raced 4yo who won a Group 2 at Caulfield at just her 4th career run, before an end of prep miss Magic Millions day January. Just one "nothing" run last time in and missed 204 days. Beaten 4.2 lengths on soft ground at Canberra first up with -7.4 lengths below benchmark. Here though has smashed her -0.9 PB from a Group 3 win at Newcastle, and it said the Maher team have a genuinely exciting talent on their hands. +2.4 at the 800 sitting 4 lengths from the lead, before +5.7 mid race and -1.3 last 400 as the run told. Raw time was a booming +6.8 adjusted down for the pressure and firm track.

    Subsequently: 9th Eagle Farm 27/12, then 4th Gold Coast 10/01. Winner Magic Millions stayers Cup 17/01

    Fiorenot
    Flemington
    Dec 31, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 2

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent progression 4th run in producing a new PB now fully fit and getting away from the quirky Caulfield Heath track when twice placed behind the promising TOUCHDOWN. +4.8 at the 800 despite sitting nearly 4 lengths from the lead showed the high pressure from the lead pack, before +0.5 in the mid race and -0.3 last 400. Dipped a bit with a one length flat spot from the 400 to 200. Won twice spring 2024 before missing nearly a year's racing, but is clearly now in the zone, and given this is just BM70 class, he should have more wins this summer if staying fit and well.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 17/01

    Harry's Yacht
    Ballarat
    Dec 6, 2025

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 3

    -4.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    We rarely include the unlucky runner - he was certainly that - but this sprinter either needs to use the early speed he possesses, or have clear air for his big closing sprint which has been in the +6.2 to +6.7 range. The former was in his first up Bendigo win which included the 3rd best last 600 and the 2nd best last 400 and 200 of their Cup Day. Here -3.6 at the 800 after a slightly slow start and "stuck" from the low draw, before -0.2 and -3.9 last two sections. Lost a sharp 2.4 lengths in traffic from the 400 to 200, before a late 0.8 length pick up. Ideal off season type with a benchmark rating of just 80 at present.

    Subsequently: 2nd Cranbourne 27/12 then winner Geelong 03/01.

    Saint George
    Flemington
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 6

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced import in just his 2nd prep after showing glimpses of talent last spring. Now gelded, both runs this time in have been faultless despite missing the main prize in each. The Seymour Cup 12/10 saw him crush the line with a booming +8.0 last 400 which was the 4th best of the day and the 2nd best last 200 at the end of the mile. Here -10.4 at the 800, before +1.7 mid race meaning a 12 length squeeze, and +2.0 last 400. Note however lost 0.8 of a length over the last 200 in isolation which strongly suggests "fully fit peak run from here." Is entered for WA and would be very hard to beat there is continuing his upwards trend.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Ballarat Cup 06/12 before winner Cranbourne 27/12.

    Stormland
    Randwick
    Dec 26, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 4

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Picked off in the last stride first up now gelded after being 3 wide no cover throughout, and the big late gas out said he'll improve considerably off this. -2.2 at the 800, before +2.4 in the mid race and +0.5 last 400. However note lost 1.7 lengths last 200 in isolation. This was also seen via the 4th best last 600 of the day, but just the 28th best last 200 of the day. This is clearly his career best IVR time, and this is basic BM64 level. Should be in for a successful prep from here. 

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury 16/01

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.