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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Moonee Valley
August 9
Posted 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Stylish
    Sandown
    Jun 14, 2025

    The 3.3 length winner of Race 4

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    This was a big win and given it's just BM74 company, it's unlikely to be her last this time in! Came off a "car crash" run in traffic Caulfield a fortnight earlier, after a sound first up win first start Team Hayes Bendigo with -2.8 lengths below benchmark. Here -6.3 at the 800 had her 6 lengths from the lead, +2.7 from the 800 to the 400 meant an excellent 9 length squeeze, before +5.2 last 400. That was the 5th best of the day at the end of 1400. She's always shown glimpses of promise including a best of day win at Bendigo last November with -0.9 lengths below benchmark and looks set to go to a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: 3rd Flemington 05/06 then winner Flemington 02/08

    Zou Sensation
    Caulfield
    Jun 28, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 7

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Good quality "off season" sprinter, whose PB to date was at MV last Nov with +0.3 winning this distance on firm ground in a best of the night performance. Here after being planted wide and over-racing 7 weeks earlier when -0.9 and ranked 7th on the day, has improved to -0.3 ranked 3rd, and his ability to produce a big midrace, a sustained closing chase, and produce a very solid wet track indicator of +8.1 says he should be in for more wins this winter. -8.3 at the 800, before -3.2 in the mid race and -1.4 last 400. Note he peaked with +0.9 from the 400 to 200, before losing 3 lengths last 200. 

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 12/07. Winner Flemington 02/08

    Headley Grange
    Randwick
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 0.7 length winner of Race 9

    -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    A very solid return win and particularly given he was only clear 200 out. -9.4 at the 800 stalking the leaders, before -6.9 in the mid race and -1.2 last 400. However the breakdown was -3.0 from the 400 to 200, before a brilliant turn of foot going +1.7 last 200 in isolation which was the 6th best of the day. This brings him to 7 wins and 7 placings from 17 career starts showing his consistency and tenacity, with his PB to date of +0.2 set at his last run before spelling. That says he's a slow maturing type who keeps improving with racing.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 21/06. Unplaced Grafton Cup 13/07 then winner Rosehill 02/08

    Headley Grange
    Randwick
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 0.6 length winner of Race 9

    +1.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Slow maturing rising 5yo who has dragged his PB from +0.2 set at the end of his last prep when 2nd at Rosehill over 1400. Here 2nd up off a -1.1 length below benchmark win here over 1300 ranked 5th on the day, he's collected a Listed win improving 2.5 lengths race to race. Settled third line going -2.0 which was good speed on the slowest part of the track, before +3.4 in the mid race. That "fast and faster" exertion tanked him out despite winning with -6.8 last 400. His typical closing speed is fully franked above +3 and he handles wet tracks. As such more wins this time in would be no surprise given his excellent strike rate.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Grafton Cup 13/08 then winner Rosehill 02/08

    Stardeel
    Randwick
    Jul 12, 2025

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 4

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Started favourite after bolting in his maiden at Kenso, but in a "no time" 1100 with just -5.5 lengths below benchmark with a first section of -5.7 sitting 2nd line. Here he was midfield on a leader advantaged track going -4.3 at the 800, before -1.3 and +0.8 last 2 sections. This was his clear best IVR figure to date, and his sustained close - the 8th best last 800 and 6th best last 200 of the day - strongly suggests he's now fit, but looking for further. This is just basic BM72 level and he should be hard to stop from going one better from here and particularly if stepping to 1200-1400 range.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 26/07 then winner Rosehill 02/08

    Zou Sensation
    Caulfield
    Jul 12, 2025

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from his excellent win over 1200 a fortnight earlier when -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day, and he's gone on with it stepping to 1400. -2.6 at the 800 sitting 3rd line., before -6.7 in the mid race - a 4 length loss of speed in the slowest part of the track - before a solid rebound going -2.5 last 400. However note the 200 increments showed -0.3 from the 400 to 200, before -2.2 last 200. That says despite winning again, further improvement is highly likely. Ready for open company or even a Listed race at this time of year.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 02/08

    Juja Kibo
    Sandown
    Jul 16, 2025

    The 3.8 length winner of Race 8

    -4.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure to include in Sizzlers, but a lightly raced Ciaron Maher trained import with good pre-race market support then winning effortlessly with an electric turn of foot says "more to come!" -10.6 at the 800 when 5.3 lengths from the lead. +1.0 in the mid race meant a very strong 11.6 length squeeze, before letting down with a +6.1 last 400. Lost 1.4 lengths last 200 in isolation underlining the upside potential. This is just BM70 level having his 3rd start 2nd local prep and we look forward to measuring his progress. 

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 02/08

    Losesomewinmore
    Flemington
    Jul 19, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 9

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him after winning first up here over 1100 Anzac Day when -0.2 ranked best of the day, before race shapes were against him at Sandown (best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day) and here over 1100 again (3rd best last 400 too much too late). Back to the 1000 and back to his "coiled spring" best with Craig Williams going on. -3.9 at the 800, before benchmark in the midrace and +4.1 last 400. The difference here was his chase was sustained running the 3rd best last 800, but "just" the 8th best last 400 as the champion rider judged the run to perfection. Maybe Moonee Valley 1000 in three weeks???

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 02/08

    King of Roseau
    Rosehill
    Jul 19, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 10

    +1.1 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    In the zone coming off a track/distance win 5 weeks earlier when -0.5 lengths above benchmark, but here has smashed that and produced an all time PB, fitting the bill that the gelding at the start of this prep has "turned him into a racehorse." -2.2 at the 800 when 5 lengths from the lead, before +0.9 in the mid race and +3.1 last 400. There's another track/distance here in 3 weeks at BM94 level and that looks perfect for him, or will they have a "throw at the stumps" in the Missile at Randwick a week later???

    Subsequently: Winner Auries Star Flemington 02/08

    Martial Music
    Sandown
    Jul 16, 2025

    The 0.3 length 4th in Race 4

    -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Well travelled rising 6yo now in his 3rd stable and 2nd up for Team Hayes has produced a "ready now" run for a similar basic BM70 level. +0.2 at the 800 in the leading line and +4.5 mid race meant excellent sustained speed, before a -4.0 last 400 with -3.2 last 200 in isolation gas out. His PB is -0.2 winning at Randwick February, and also has a best of day -0.4 winning at Gosford November 2023. Clearly a short course specialist and now fully fit can win placed right.

    Subsequently: Winner Cranbourne 01/08 at $5

    Our Diamond Lil
    Scone
    May 17, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 4

    Benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving lightly raced 4yo mare, who came to play matching the good market expectations off two big margin trial wins leading in. Cruised early stalking the leaders going -1.9 at the 800, before +1.8 in the mid race and +3.5 last 400. Lost 0.5 of a length over the last 200, but note this was a 2.4 length improvement from her 1st up run last prep. Her PB was set 3rd up Canterbury over 1550 when +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day. We looks no issue for her going into the winter as well. Looks set for more wins given this is just BM72 level.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 07/06 then 2nd Randwick 21/06, before winner Randwick 12/07 and winner Randwick 26/07

    Stylish Secret
    Caulfield
    May 3, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 7

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Had market support saying he was "coming to play" 3rd up stepping to 2000 metres and he absolutely did with a big new PB from -1.5 when winning at Sandown 21/08 at his 3rd career run over 1500 metres. +0.5 was good speed sitting 3.5 lengths from the lead, +0.4 and +0.3 last 2 sections, earning an "extra tick" for staying above benchmark each section. Can be followed with confidence in similar 3yo company this distance range now that he has this platform.

    Subsequently: Four (!!!) unlucky runs Flemington then winner Caulfield 26/07

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.