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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
July 19
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Sayedaty Sadaty
    Sandown
    Jun 14, 2025

    The 2.5 length 3rd in Race 7

    -2.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 27th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Import who did little in his first two runs - the first the Caulfield Cup - but "switched on" after being beaten a half length 3 weeks earlier this track/distance first up. However there just -5.1 lengths below benchmark off a -12.9 first section, whereas here +0.4 so 13.3 lengths faster first 1200 metres. +2.3 in the mid race before gassing out late with -4.5 last 400. Now that he's "had a race" he should prove very hard to get past and especially if he finds a "fence on" set up.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 28/06.

    Jimmy The Bear
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 6

    Benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him first up when a "hard to miss" 2nd three weeks earlier to current Stradbroke favourite WAR MACHINE. There he was -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day, so here has elevated both in IVR data and daily ranking. -1.6 at the 800 sitting 2nd line, before +1.7 and +1.8 last 2 sections. Of note he lost 3 lengths over the last 200 in isolation so he's still trending upwards with conditioning improvement to come. His PB was last August with +1.4 lengths above benchmark set here over 1400 when having his 7th run for the prep, so his history of improving with racing is there.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 07/06 then winner Flemington 21/06, winner Winter Final 05/07, winner Caulfield 12/07

    Zou Sensation
    Caulfield
    Jun 28, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 7

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Good quality "off season" sprinter, whose PB to date was at MV last Nov with +0.3 winning this distance on firm ground in a best of the night performance. Here after being planted wide and over-racing 7 weeks earlier when -0.9 and ranked 7th on the day, has improved to -0.3 ranked 3rd, and his ability to produce a big midrace, a sustained closing chase, and produce a very solid wet track indicator of +8.1 says he should be in for more wins this winter. -8.3 at the 800, before -3.2 in the mid race and -1.4 last 400. Note he peaked with +0.9 from the 400 to 200, before losing 3 lengths last 200. 

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 12/07

    In Flight
    Randwick
    Jun 7, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 8

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    "Duck" who we sizzled from her lead in run/win at Doomben on very heavy ground when -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day, and here has improved her overall IVR score by 1.3 lengths, and extended her PB from +0.4 set here last December. -7.6 at the 800, before -5.0 and +3.0 last 2 sections, which included the 2nd best last 600 of the day. Wet track indicator of a very solid +7.0, but note if the weather happens to turn, she's capable on clean ground as well. To date hasn't been tried beyond 1100, but she relaxes in her races so should be able to run a solid 1200.

    Subsequently: Winner Bletchingly Stakes Caulfield 12/07

    Our Diamond Lil
    Scone
    May 17, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 4

    Benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Evolving lightly raced 4yo mare, who came to play matching the good market expectations off two big margin trial wins leading in. Cruised early stalking the leaders going -1.9 at the 800, before +1.8 in the mid race and +3.5 last 400. Lost 0.5 of a length over the last 200, but note this was a 2.4 length improvement from her 1st up run last prep. Her PB was set 3rd up Canterbury over 1550 when +1.7 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day. We looks no issue for her going into the winter as well. Looks set for more wins given this is just BM72 level.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 07/06 then 2nd Randwick 21/06, before winner Randwick 12/07

    Jimmy The Bear
    Flemington
    Jul 5, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 8

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    "Winter warrior" with typically super tenacity, narrowly winning the Winter final which was his 3rd victory in four starts and his 2nd best ever IVR figure. Found a slow tempo mile going just -10.7 at the 800 which was 5 lengths from the lead. +0.2 in the mid race meant a very strong 11 length squeeze, and he finished off with +3.5 last 400. His all time PB was set at Caulfield last August with +1.4 lengths above benchmark, and he did so deep into his prep. That says he's very good at holding his level. Should remain very hard to beat whatever they target from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 12/07

    In Flight
    Doomben
    May 17, 2025

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 7

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Ultra consistent mare, whose 3 IVR figures this time in has been -0.5, -0.1 and here -0.4 finding the wettest conditions yet. -1.8 at the 800 had her 3rd line, before -7.0 and -5.7 in the last two sections on the inferior part of the track with last bit best bit improving from the 13th best last 400 of the day to the 7th best last 200. This was the 9th time in 16 starts that she's produced a top 3 last 800 of the meeting showing her ability to sustain closing speed. Deserves obvious ongoing respect into this carnival.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 07/06.

    Half Yours
    Rosehill
    May 31, 2025

    The 3.4 length winner of Race 9

    -4.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this lightly raced stayer in blinkers first time has produced a top 5 ranking on an impossible day to run time, with the standout feature the biggest squeeze of the day. -19.5 at the 800 when 7.5 lengths from the lead, before +2.9 in the midrace when set alight in a daring Gibbons ride. That's a huge 22.4 length improvement of speed. Last 400 was an understandable -5.4 drop off. He clearly thrived in the going with a wet track indicator of +8.2, having previous had a "swimmer" +16.0 when bolting in at Cranbourne last August. Clearly more to come.

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 14/06 before winner Caloundra Cup 05/07

    The Three Hundred
    Warwick Farm
    Apr 16, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 5

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return! Out-bobbed but produced a new PB from -0.7 when winning here over 1400 when 3rd up 23/10, and significantly better than his -3.4 when resuming last time in. Of note -0.3 was 6 lengths from the lead, and is a good sign that he's learned to relax this time in after going as fast as +7.0 first section. He produced a strong mid race going +5.1, before tapering with +0.5 last 400. In fact his last 200 in isolation saw a 4 length drop off. This was also seen via the 8th best last 800, but the 47th best last 200. This says more to come fitness wise, and should be very hard to stop from going one better from here.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced then winner Sunshine Coast Guineas 05/07

    Brave One
    Randwick
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 3

    -1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced and first prep as a gelding, and here 3rd up finally found clean ground and produced a run that says he'll progress from this BM72 class. (Note his first two runs were top 4 of the meeting, but -3.1 and -4.0 on heavy Canterbury 30/04 and then "knee deep" heavy Randwick 31/05.) Here stalked a modest tempo going -5.8 and -5.2 first two sections which smothered the opportunity to produce more, but an excellent +3.5 last 400 and +2.9 last 200 in isolation. 6th best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 for further context. Should elevate towards benchmark with a more solid tempo.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 05/07

    Goldenstatewarrior
    Sandown
    Feb 1, 2025

    The 2.1 length 4th in Race 3

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Matched his IVR figure from winning at Geelong, but this was a MUCH better run. -10.3 at the 800 was 7 lengths off the leader who was going at a "cruisey" -3.4. His last two sections however were +5.8 (meaning a 16.2 length squeeze) and +7.6 last 400 which is booming and included a 2.5 length slowdown from the 600 to the 400. Perhaps the Torney night cup 2500 Moonee Valley 21/02 is a likely next start? Should post a significantly higher figure from here going forward.

    Subsequently: Twice 2nd in Adelaide including the Cup. Then 3 times 3rd Caulfield and Flemington (twice) before breaking through Flemington 05/07

    Shockletz
    Flemington
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 8

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Nice win! On a leader advantaged day, she's made up 6.4 lengths from the front when going -4.2 at the 800 in a high pressure race shape. -0.2 in the mid race, before +0.6 last 400 before getting up in the last stride. The last 200 was a 2.2 length "launch" which was the 17th best of the day at the end of 2000 metres. She's dragged her PB up a significant 3 lengths, and did so while stepping from a mile to 2000 metres. Highly likely to get a softer tempo race shape from here and that should equate to further improvement 4th up. Looks set for a very solid winter.

    Subsequently: 0.3 length 2nd Flemington 21/06 then winner Flemington 05/07

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.