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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
January 31
Posted 9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Suntora
    Pakenham
    Dec 13, 2025

    The one length winner of Race 5

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Two big wins in a row as a slow maturing 4yo mare, who came from bolting in Caulfield Heath with -3.4 lengths below benchmark at the mid week meeting, but here has produced an IVR figure of substance, with a clear PB and there still looks more to come. -3.0 at the 800 when 7.2 lengths from the leaders who were overdoing it. +0.7 in the mid race and a very strong last bit best bit +5.4 last 400. This is just BM78 level so just holding this figure is most likely to keep her deep in the finish placed conservatively, and could in time pick off a summer stakes race in the staying ranks without surprise. 

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Cranbourne 27/12, before 3rd Flemington 10th January and 4.3 length winner Caulfield 24/01

    Way To The Stars
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 0.4 length 2nd in Race 6

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Solid return after 280 days away having not come up in 2 runs previous prep, but had trialled well leading in. Of note he was slowly away from the wide barrier so was unable to use his lead speed asset. -1.7 at the 800, before +2.2 in the mid race and +3.2 last 400. This included a 2.3 length slowdown from the 600 to 400, and his overall closing rankings were the 3rd best last 800 and 600, before the 13th best last 200 stating the conditioning benefit to come. His PB is +1.9 set Flemington Oaks Day 2024, and he can get closer to that from here. Should now be very hard to stop from going one better.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 24/01.

    Big Red Tequilla
    Randwick
    Dec 27, 2025

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 5

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent run and the data strongly suggests she'll be advantaged if asked to step out over longer. Just -6.8 at the 800 asked to settle 3rd line, before +3.3 in the mid race meaning a booming 10 length squeeze, and sustained it home with +4.0 last 400. As she did first up when winning at Kembla with a super +8.1 last 400, produced the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the meeting. That closing speed should see her very hard to hold out from here noting the rail out 8 metres today assisted those on pace.

    Subsequently: Winner Kenso 21/01

    Man Of Worth
    Randwick
    Dec 26, 2025

    The 4.2 length winner of Race 1

    -5.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 45th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure to include, but this is a lightly raced import winning a maiden with an excellent turn of foot, on the quick back up 3rd up after gassing out last bit at Canterbury when -2.0 lengths below benchmark. Here -10.5 at the 800 and -3.2 in the mid race, before +4.4 last 400 when clear at the top of the straight before bolting in. Should have no problem elevating to -1.0 range, so conservatively placed can win again, where we can track his progress further. 

    Subsequently: Winner Warwick Farm 07/01

    Althoff
    Randwick
    Dec 13, 2025

    The 0.5 length 3rd in Race 4

    -2.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 31st on the day

    Summary

    Modest IVR figure, but this was still very good! 1st up after 262 days away from a one run prep March which was his only previous run as a gelding, clearly not right post race given the long gap, and a friendless $21 said lack of stable expectations. Accordingly was out the back early with -8.9 at the 800 when 9.3 lengths from the lead. +0.7 in the mid race meant a 9.6 length squeeze, before +1.8 last 400. However the 200 increments showed a 2.1 length slowdown from the 400 to 200, and his last 200 was a booming 3.4 length pick up and the best of the day. Ready to smash his -1.8 PB with a big summer ahead.

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 27/12 then winner Wyong 10/01 and again Randwick 24/12

    Jigsaw
    Cranbourne
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 9

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd best of the day

    Summary

    All honours! Amazing performance by this 7yo who won this track/distance 2nd up 10/10 with +1.5 lengths above benchmark at the Friday night meeting, and that was breaking a drought back to April 2023. His Cox Plate Day win was +0.1 when leading throughout on his terms, but here has rebounded to a new level not produced since January 2023! +1.5 at the 800, +0.8 in the mid race before a slight late taper of -0.9 last 400. Clearly back in the zone with his old tenacity. Perhaps the Xmas Handicap Sandown from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Group 1 Telegraph New Zealand! 

    Althoff
    Wyong
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 10

    -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    3rd up after missing 262 days from a one run prep after being gelded, and if he stays sound there's no reason he won't be winning multiple races from here. Just -11.4 at the 800 but 5.2 lengths from the lead in a super slow tempo race shape. +1.8 in the mid race was a significant 13.2 length squeeze. That he was able to go on with a booming best of day +9.8 last 400 including an outstanding +5.9 last 200 underlines the brilliant closing speed and upside potential from this basic BM78 level.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 24/01

    Regal Zeus
    Sandown
    Dec 26, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Got back to doing what he does best; rolling at high speed and "breaking" the opposition. +8.0 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was blistering speed, and was still +3.5 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 was just -5.4, but everything behind him had no energy left too. His all time best is +1.0 to +1.9 range. There's not much locally for him at present, so unsurprisingly is Listed as spelling. Probably will be targeted to defend his Bendigo Golden Mile in April?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 24/01

    Space Rider
    Moonee Valley
    Aug 23, 2025

    The 0.8 length winner of Race 5

    -1.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Nice return after 217 days away having just his 3rd career start, nothing the data says a 3.7 length improvement from his debut win at Eagle Farm December. +0.2 at the 800 stalking the lead was good speed, before -1.4 and -1.7 last 2 sections. Should get a good conditioning elevation from this given the early pressure exerted and a benchmark range run is likely. Perhaps 1400 Flemington next??

    REPOST: First up winner again Caulfield 24/01

    Taken
    Caulfield
    Nov 15, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 10

    -0.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 15th on the day

    Summary

    Made it 5 in a row, despite clearly not being "screwed down" first up after 147 days away and just one lead in jump out. -5.9 and -5.7 first two sections stalking the lead helped given the lack of "heat" before +3.1 last 400. This has matched his best ever performance from winning at Flemington 3rd up and smashed his previous best resuming run. Looks set for further success this summer and can continue through the grades.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Pakenham 13/12 then winner Caulfield 24/01

    Paradise city
    Flemington
    Jan 10, 2026

    The 0.8 length 2nd in race 10

    +0.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Ready! Super elevation from just -4.7 on the quirky Caulfield Heath track, and a new PB from -1.0 from her 2nd career start Bendigo 2023. At the 800 was midfield going -0.7 spotting the leader/winner 5.5 lengths. +3.2 in the mid race before -0.7 last 400. Did lose a length over the last 200 as the chase told only 2nd up, but note ran the best last 1200 and 1000 of the day. Has tactical versatility winning twice as a leader, but has three times ran a closing 400 between +7.5 and +9.1. Caulfield BM78 staying at 1400 on January 31 from here???

    Subsequently: Winner Pakenham 23/01

    Hedged
    Sandown
    Dec 26, 2025

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 6

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Winkers off, relaxed, and after being very good at not winning despite continuously being in the market over the past 18 months, put it together and smashed them! Sat 3 wide no cover going -1.8 at the 800 stalking the leading duo, +5.0 in the mid race, before +1.6 last 400, losing a length with the race won. This was also seen via the 6th best last 600, but the 27th best last 200 of the day. The raw time was a slick +4.7 lengths above benchmark, and given he's Magic Millions eligible, a trip north looks on the cards. If he "races" as well as he did here, he'll be very competitive again at worst.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 10/01 then winner Group 2 Australia Stakes Pakenham 23/01

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.