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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Flemington
January 18
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Miss Roumbini
    Ballarat
    Dec 7, 2024

    The nose winner of Race 4

    -0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled her when +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day 3 weeks earlier Caulfield with a new PB first up noting her "better further" profile, so while she's came off that slightly, she stayed at 1200 and there should still be more to come. +0.1 at the 800 had her "flying" 8.4 lengths faster first section race to race. +1.5 in the mid race, before +2.3 last 400. Did lose 1.1 lengths last 200 in isolation reflecting of conditioning improvement to come, as well as the significantly higher early exertion. Heading north from here, and if she found wet ground it would be a bonus.

    Subsequently: Winner Gold Coast Magic Millions Fillies and Mares 17/01

    Miss Roumbini
    Caulfield
    Nov 16, 2024

    The 1.5 length 3rd in Race 10

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return from this lightly raced mare starting her 3rd prep by kicking off with a new PB at 1200, but with a "better further" profile. -8.3 and -2.8 in the first two sections on the headwind impact day, before +3.1 last 400 which was the 7th best of the day. Has had limited exposure to dry ground, but there's nothing to say she shouldn't be able to add to her two city wins to date which were in basic June fillies company. This says she's at a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: Winner Ballarat Cup Day 07/12, then Magic Millions fillies and mares Gold Coast 18/01

    Scintilla
    Canterbury
    Jan 1, 2025

    The 1.2 lengths 2nd in Race 3

    -3.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 26th on the day

    Summary

    A modest IVR figure, but after heavy market support off two quiet trials and settling back last 7.3 lengths from the lead, she's produced an excellent, sustained close that says she won't be remaining a maiden for long. -9.2 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before a best of day mid race squeeze going +5.3 from the 800 to 400. That she increased her speed home with a booming +7.3 last 400 added merit closing with the 7th best last 600 and 400 of the meeting. Did also lose 1.5 lengths last 200. That strongly suggests a big elevation from here with ordinary luck and health.

    Subsequently: Winner Canterbury 17/01

    West of Africa
    Randwick
    Dec 21, 2024

    The 1.6 length 3rd in Race 10

    -1.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    This was a big return run! Just below his -1.2 PB which he produced twice late 2022 as a colt, but now starting his 2nd prep as a gelding looks set for his best prep yet. At the 800 was going just -9.2 and that had him 10.6 lengths from the lead in a non-winning position. +5.0 in the mid-race meant a booming 14.2 lengths squeeze, and he sustained it home with +5.9 last 400 which was the 6th best of the day. Looks very dangerous this prep up to a mile range.

    Subsequently: Winner Gold Coast Magic Millions Cup

    Zarastro
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 7, 2024

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 8

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Very consistent sprinter over 1200 and generally with a run under his belt, and as such this was the perfect return just missing over a 1000 metres. +0.9 at the 800 stalking the leaders, before +3.0 in the mid race and +0.1 last 400. Ran the 3rd best last 800 of the day, but just the 19th best last 200 reflecting conditioning improvement to come. Ran a tapering 7th at the Magic Millions 1400 January and there both overdid it early and was at the end of a long prep. Given he's had a good 126 day break before this run, he looks to have a much better platform this time around if aimed there. Current PB is a very strong +1.8 here 1200 June.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Eagle Farm 28/12 then winner Magic Millions sprint 17/01

    Sandpaper
    Caulfield
    Jul 13, 2024

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 2

    -2.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    Ready! A modest IVR figure, but 3rd up, put forward for the first time this prep, had good market support and only the rock hard fit "swimmer" EL ROCKO got past him. -3.9 at the 800, -4.8 mid race before -7.6 last 400. While that reflected the heavy conditions, of note he lost 2.6 lengths over the last 200 in isolation. That says he should get good conditioning improvement from here. Won a 3yo stakes race Caulfield Cup Day 2022 with -0.1, and has an all time best of +0.2. Missed 234 days prior to this prep, so the "slow build" looks on track. This is BM78 level so a benchmark performance is a likely winning one from here.

    Subsequently: 3rd then 4th and spelled. First up new stable winner Wyong 11/01

    Elphinstone
    Pakenham
    Dec 21, 2024

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    4yo mare who has always shown glimpses of talent, but needs clean ground that she got here but didn't get in her previous run Caulfield on a very wet deck. -1.1 at the 800 though 5.5 lengths from the leaders who were clearly overdoing it. +0.8 in the mid race and +3.9 last bit best bit over the last 400. Had market support pre-race that she was bringing a good performance, and has produced a new PB from -2.2 when 2nd in the Bendigo Guineas 1400 in April. This is just BM78 level, and this sets her up to go up in class and possibly distance given her ability to relax in the run and close hard.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 11/01

    Waterford
    Rosehill
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 0.5 length 3rd in race 8

    +3.5 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Booming return and produced a clear new PB from +1.9 (and +1.7) previously last spring and May Scone. The logic to him being a slow maturer is he only had one start as a 3yo, and wasn't gelded till a 5yo. Here -4.3 at the 800, +4.6 mid race and +5.8 last 400 which was an excellent sustained close. He also ran the best last 1200 of the day. Could be very hard to hold out in a Big Dance over the Randwick mile on the big track.

    Subsequently: 4 unplaced runs then winner $500,000 Lakes Wyong

    It'sourtime
    Caulfield Heath
    Dec 26, 2024

    The one length 3rd in Race 8

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    We're hardly stamping a runner who has been racing since March, but this is as good as he can go in a good track, turning circle 1100, and as such he's on track for a Flemington sprint like the Standish in January which is where he excels. -4.9 at the 800 had him 5.8 lengths from the lead, before a booming 8.3 length squeeze in producing +3.4 mid race. Closed with +1.8 so still solid. Confirmation via the best last 800 and 600 of the day, and if he brings that to the straight track over 1200, he'll be deep in the finish. Don't underestimate!

    Subsequently: Winner Standish Flemington 11/01

    Bullets High
    Newcastle
    Nov 16, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 4

    -0.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him first up when an excellent Warwick Farm 2nd best of the day +0.7 winner over 1400, and has twice been narrowly beaten since including here. -1.3 at the 800, before +0.9 mid race and +5.8 last 400. This was the best closing sprint of his career, as was the +3.8 last 200 in isolation. That was the 11th best of the meeting at the end of a mile underlining he couldn't have done much more. Returning to the winner's list shortly looks highly likely in similar and no issue if asked to step up in trip.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Rosehill 30/11. Placed Rosehill 07/12, Randwick 28/12 before winner Wyong 11/01

    Smokin' Princess
    Pakenham
    Dec 21, 2024

    The 1.3 length winner of Race 7

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    Staying mare with an excellent win rate of 6 wins from 15 starts leading into this, but despite the heavy market support, had a big challenge to cope 2nd up from Caulfield Heath into a significantly faster race. She won 04/12 with a modest -5.3 off a lead speed of -11.8, whereas here was going -3.9, so 8 lengths faster race to race, but still 8.4 lengths from the lead. +2.0 in the mid race was a sound 6 length squeeze, before +4.4 last 400 so last bit best bit, franked in seeing it was the 6th best last 400 of the day at the end of the mile. She's raised the PB from -2.5 and is trending to go one better in a similar race over 2000.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 11/01

    Storm Boy
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 23, 2023

    The 2.4 length winner of Race 6

    -2.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    We were initially on the fence about including him, but with the fields now out and a low bar likely to be required to win, he profiles superbly and entitled to be the dominant favourite that he is. Apart from the elite Waterhouse Bott "target" trainers, his ability to produce genuine early speed over 1200 here, says he's likely to improve further and take a power of beating. -0.1 at the 800, before +4.0 in the mid race which is super sharp. Dropped away with the race well won going just -3.0 last 400. Strengthening from that is where most confidence lies.

    Subsequently: Winner Magic Millions 2yo Gold Coast 13/01. 

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.