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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
July 12
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    In Flight
    Doomben
    May 17, 2025

    The 1.9 length winner of Race 7

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Ultra consistent mare, whose 3 IVR figures this time in has been -0.5, -0.1 and here -0.4 finding the wettest conditions yet. -1.8 at the 800 had her 3rd line, before -7.0 and -5.7 in the last two sections on the inferior part of the track with last bit best bit improving from the 13th best last 400 of the day to the 7th best last 200. This was the 9th time in 16 starts that she's produced a top 3 last 800 of the meeting showing her ability to sustain closing speed. Deserves obvious ongoing respect into this carnival.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 07/06.

    Half Yours
    Rosehill
    May 31, 2025

    The 3.4 length winner of Race 9

    -4.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    A low IVR figure, but this lightly raced stayer in blinkers first time has produced a top 5 ranking on an impossible day to run time, with the standout feature the biggest squeeze of the day. -19.5 at the 800 when 7.5 lengths from the lead, before +2.9 in the midrace when set alight in a daring Gibbons ride. That's a huge 22.4 length improvement of speed. Last 400 was an understandable -5.4 drop off. He clearly thrived in the going with a wet track indicator of +8.2, having previous had a "swimmer" +16.0 when bolting in at Cranbourne last August. Clearly more to come.

    Subsequently: 2nd Rosehill 14/06 before winner Caloundra Cup 05/07

    The Three Hundred
    Warwick Farm
    Apr 16, 2025

    The nose 2nd in Race 5

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return! Out-bobbed but produced a new PB from -0.7 when winning here over 1400 when 3rd up 23/10, and significantly better than his -3.4 when resuming last time in. Of note -0.3 was 6 lengths from the lead, and is a good sign that he's learned to relax this time in after going as fast as +7.0 first section. He produced a strong mid race going +5.1, before tapering with +0.5 last 400. In fact his last 200 in isolation saw a 4 length drop off. This was also seen via the 8th best last 800, but the 47th best last 200. This says more to come fitness wise, and should be very hard to stop from going one better from here.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced then winner Sunshine Coast Guineas 05/07

    Brave One
    Randwick
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 3

    -1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 19th on the day

    Summary

    Lightly raced and first prep as a gelding, and here 3rd up finally found clean ground and produced a run that says he'll progress from this BM72 class. (Note his first two runs were top 4 of the meeting, but -3.1 and -4.0 on heavy Canterbury 30/04 and then "knee deep" heavy Randwick 31/05.) Here stalked a modest tempo going -5.8 and -5.2 first two sections which smothered the opportunity to produce more, but an excellent +3.5 last 400 and +2.9 last 200 in isolation. 6th best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 for further context. Should elevate towards benchmark with a more solid tempo.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 05/07

    Goldenstatewarrior
    Sandown
    Feb 1, 2025

    The 2.1 length 4th in Race 3

    -3.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 34th on the day

    Summary

    Matched his IVR figure from winning at Geelong, but this was a MUCH better run. -10.3 at the 800 was 7 lengths off the leader who was going at a "cruisey" -3.4. His last two sections however were +5.8 (meaning a 16.2 length squeeze) and +7.6 last 400 which is booming and included a 2.5 length slowdown from the 600 to the 400. Perhaps the Torney night cup 2500 Moonee Valley 21/02 is a likely next start? Should post a significantly higher figure from here going forward.

    Subsequently: Twice 2nd in Adelaide including the Cup. Then 3 times 3rd Caulfield and Flemington (twice) before breaking through Flemington 05/07

    Shockletz
    Flemington
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 8

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Nice win! On a leader advantaged day, she's made up 6.4 lengths from the front when going -4.2 at the 800 in a high pressure race shape. -0.2 in the mid race, before +0.6 last 400 before getting up in the last stride. The last 200 was a 2.2 length "launch" which was the 17th best of the day at the end of 2000 metres. She's dragged her PB up a significant 3 lengths, and did so while stepping from a mile to 2000 metres. Highly likely to get a softer tempo race shape from here and that should equate to further improvement 4th up. Looks set for a very solid winter.

    Subsequently: 0.3 length 2nd Flemington 21/06 then winner Flemington 05/07

    Jimmy The Bear
    Caulfield
    May 31, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 6

    Benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him first up when a "hard to miss" 2nd three weeks earlier to current Stradbroke favourite WAR MACHINE. There he was -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day, so here has elevated both in IVR data and daily ranking. -1.6 at the 800 sitting 2nd line, before +1.7 and +1.8 last 2 sections. Of note he lost 3 lengths over the last 200 in isolation so he's still trending upwards with conditioning improvement to come. His PB was last August with +1.4 lengths above benchmark set here over 1400 when having his 7th run for the prep, so his history of improving with racing is there.

    Subsequently: 2nd Flemington 07/06 then winner Flemington 21/06, and winner Winter Final 05/07

    Jimmy the Bear
    Flemington
    Jun 21, 2025

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    In the zone this time in with two wins and two 2nds - the first to subsequent Stradbroke winner WAR MACHINE - and here just dominated sitting midfield of a very sharp speed. +5.2 lengths above benchmark at the 800, yet 5 lengths from the lead, followed by -0.1 and -5.2 last two sections. (Meaning least tired late!) Has an all time PB of +1.4 at Caulfield last August, and that looks in his scope into the Winter Final.

    Subsequently: Winner Winter Final 05/07 Flemington

    Oh Too Good
    Caulfield
    May 10, 2025

    The 0.9 length 3rd in Race 9

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by this lightly raced mare with a "better further" profile to go with a terrific strike rate. -3.2 at the 800 had her 4 lengths from the lead, before +0.8 in the mid race and +3.7 last 400, and this included the 3rd best last 600 of the day. Won a high pressure 1500 first up last Geelong Cup day 23/10 producing her PB to date of +0.4, but this set up is ideal to avoid flatness going forward. Would be no surprise if she gets to a new level this time in.

    Subsequently: 4th Sandown 24/05 then winner Flemington 07/06.

    Reset the Jazz
    Mornington
    Apr 19, 2025

    The 0.5 length winner of Race 3

    -3.0 lengths below benchmark ranked 29th on the day

    Summary

    Back on track! The obvious caveat is he's missed two chunks of racing being 460 and 473 days, but he's a good talent when right winning Geelong and Ballarat Cup days 2023, peaking with +0.2 in the former, and a wet track indicator of +8.5 in the latter. Here -6.0 at the 800 when leading, before +2.9 and +3.5 last two sections. The context is these are the best last two sections he's produced. As a fast one-pacer who can produce good early speed when fit, he should be very hard to get past from here.

    Subsequently: Twice unplaced (and very poor) Caulfield and Sandown before freshened. Returned Pakenham winner 30/06.

    Zou Sensation
    Moonee Valley
    Nov 29, 2024

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 8

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the night.

    Summary

    Has returned very strongly from a 63 day freshen after just two runs suggesting it was some kind of - minor - setback. -4.3 Geelong Cup Day when 3rd in a race impacted by a big mid race slowdown, before -2.5 winning Kyneton Cup Day ranked 2nd at the meeting, and here producing a new PB. Clearly he thrives here with his two previous best runs also this track with -0.6 and -0.7 earlier this year. -4.8 at the 800 stalking the leaders who were going a modest tempo, but +4.5 in the mid race and +4.6 last 400 was very strong and sustained. 6th best last 800 of the night, 3rd best last 400 and 2nd best last 200 running away. More to come!

    Subsequently: 0.3 length 2nd Caulfield 14/12 before two poor QLD runs and spelled. 1st up 5th Caulfield 10/05 before winning Caulfield 28/06

    Yellow Sam
    Caulfield
    Oct 12, 2024

    The 5.4 length 9th in Race 3

    -3.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 47th on the day

    Summary

    Up front we aren't stamping her, but she worthy of including on her benchmark when right best, having an impossible race shape here when the on-pace winner was dominant, and has a sharp 2nd up record. Just -6.1 at the 800 effectively had her out of play early, but then -1.8 was a sound 4.3 length move in the mid race, before a booming +6.2 last 400. Context is seen via the 7th best last 800 of the day, and the best last 600, 400 and 200 of the day. This also says she turned up fit, so perhaps they'll target Geelong Cup Day having won at their standalone meeting January? Or Moonee Valley 2 day carnival??? Keep a watch on her!

    Subsequently: Winner Bendigo Cup Day 30/10. Spelled and first up winner Swan Hill Topaz 09/06 before winner Caulfield 28/06.

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.