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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Caulfield
11th July
NOW POSTED. BONUS AROUND THE GROUNDS WORD DOC EMAILED N/C FROM 10:30AM

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Coeur Volente
    Caulfield
    Jun 27, 2026

    The one length winner of Race 8

    -0.2 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Good quality older mare who elevated from her "no time" (-4.8) length below benchmark win at Sandown a fortnight earlier. -8.4 lengths below benchmark had her 5.5 lengths from the leaders who were creating good speed relative to the soft ground. -0.4 in the mid race meant a 8.5 length squeeze which set up the win. Last 400 was just -4.1 which was sound relative to the condition. Another excellent wet track indicator figure of +8.5, and she's comfortably a +1.0 range performer on top of the ground at her best. The Lawrence back her mid August looks ideal.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 11/07

    Navy Pilot
    Bendigo
    May 2, 2026

    The 1.8 length winner of Race 7

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Let's cut to the chase: This is a horse to follow! 1st up 3rd prep, but first as a gelding and turned up with this best of day smashing of his previous PB of -1.7 lengths below benchmark set first up last time in when 3rd at Flemington. He then won at Sandown with -2.3 before two unplaced runs at Group 1 level. 179 days later settled back going -5.4 lengths below benchmark at the 800, before +2.7 in the mid race meaning a very strong 8 length squeeze, and +7.2 last 400. Some context via the best last 800 and 600 of the day, but the 19th best last 200 shows there's still fitness to come. As should be more wins!

    Subsequently: twice unplaced QLD then winner Doomben 11/07

    Winnasedge
    Caulfield
    Jun 27, 2026

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    -0.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Back to Caulfield and back in the winners list having last won (twice) here in February and March 2025. Got the perfect run stalking the leader going -3.9 at the 800, before -1.4 in the mid race and -5.8 last 400. Dropped right off late under this sustained pressure - allowing for the soft ground - with just -4.0 last 200. This was also seen via the 49th best last 200 of the day in an 1100 sprint. Was 3rd up after missing 350 days racing, so can improve again from here conditioning wise. His PB sits at +0.2, and that says he's ready for an open sprint at this time of year.

    Subsequently: Winner Monash Caulfield 11/07

    Tazima
    Randwick
    Jun 20, 2026

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    -0.6 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    A real "line-chaser" who made it 3 wins from 4 runs, including the last two after we sizzled him from a -0.9 length below benchmark half length 3rd May 2nd over 1800. His lead in win here over 2000 metres was just -7.0 but adjusted up from a raw time of -25.2 on clearly bog heavy ground. Here settling closer was going -7.3 at the 800, before -5.4 in the mid race, but an excellent +6.2 last 400 kick-down set up the narrow win. Slow maturing lightly race import, now ready for open company having worked through the grades, and clearly adaptable on any surface. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 11/07

    Big Red Tequilla
    Randwick
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 2.3 length 2nd in Race 5

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Super return! Lightly raced 4yo mare who won at Kembla resuming last time in with -1.5 lengths below benchmark, so at least a half length improvement, and from there produced +0.3 when also placed behind ICE KOOL here 27/12 but over 1100, so a big progression from here can be expected. -5.9 at the 800 four lengths from the lead, before +0.4 in the mid race and +0.2 last 400. It was the 5th time of her career that she's produced the best last 800 and 600 of the meeting, but the 10th best last 200 showed the late taper. Her last 400 is fully franked between +4.0 and +8.1. Looks in for a great prep!

    Subsequently: 4th Randwick 20/06 then winner Rosehill 04/07

    Polyglot
    Rosehill
    Feb 21, 2026

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 3

    -0.7 lengths below benchmark ranked 13th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent "back on track" run, after a very plain resuming 8th at Randwick 07/02 with blinkers going back on seemingly the "button pusher". Sat OSL going -2.5 at the 800, before -0.9 in the mid race and +4.5 last 400. Produced -0.3, -0.6 and -0.2 all also this track/distance last time in, and was off pace on each occasion. This is a great sign he can produce early tactical speed and should be very hard to stop from going one better next start in similar, and is capable on wet going if required.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Warwick Farm 11/03 and spelled. 2nd up Rosehill winner 04/07

    Duchess Zou
    Flemington
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 5

    -4.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 25th on the day

    Summary

    A barrier trial for $! Airborne mare who repeated her win at Sandown a fortnight earlier with another modest time 1400 on very wet ground, but she's just got away with a bludge. Again! Cruised going just -15.3 lengths below benchmark at the 800 stalking the lead before -7.4 from the 800 to 400, which even allowing for the very wet ground, was as slow as a runner could be going at Saturday city level. Let down with +0.4 last 400 with the context being it was the best of the day. Her PB this prep was a blistering +2.2 on firm ground at Caulfield over 1200 early April, but she's clearly at her best on soft ground. Can win again!

    Subsequently: 3rd Flemington 20/06 then winner Flemington 04/07

    Arabian Rose
    Doomben
    May 23, 2026

    The 1.6 length 2nd in Race 2

    +0.7 lengths above benchmark ranked 8th on the day

    Summary

    First up but came to play big time off a 98 day break with a clear new PB from 2.4 set winning New Years Day Eagle Farm. Thrived on the high tempo here going -2.9 at the 800, yet 5.5 lengths from the leaders who were overdoing it. -1.2 in the mid race meant virtually maintaining it, before a booming +5.2 last 400 with last bit best bit +3.9 last 300. Her sustained close included the 5th best last 800, the 2nd best last 600 and 400 and the 3rd best last 200 of the day. This was the 4th time she's run top 2 last 400 of a meeting. Lightly raced mare now at a new level. Eagle Farm BM85 in a fortnight, then to Ipswich 1350?

    Subsequently: Unplaced Eagle Farm 13/06 before winner Caloundra Cup 04/07

    General Salute
    Randwick
    Jun 6, 2026

    The 0.7 length 2nd in Race 8

    Benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Very solid return to match the market support despite 224 days away. -6.6 at the 800 had him 3.8 lengths from the lead, before -3.6 in the mid race and +2.5 last 400. This last 200 in isolation was a super slick +3.3. The Daily rankings confirmed it with the best last 400 and 200 of the day. That's the fourth time he's produced those closing splits, and his +1.2 to +1.4 range best says he's got a winter stakes race in him if he remains sound whether here or the back end of the QLD carnival. Sound wet track indicator of +6.5 says this time of year is no issue, while his CV says 1200 to 1400 is his sweet spot.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Randwick 20/06 before winner Rosehill 04/07

    Thebudgiesmugla
    Randwick
    May 23, 2026

    The nose winner of Race 4

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Came off a -1.2 lengths below benchmark run at Gosford when a close up 5th, but ranked just 40th on their standalone day on good ground. Conversely this was in genuinely wet conditions, as he stepped from 2100 to 2400 when only 3rd up 2nd local prep Ex-NZ. Shared the lead going just -11.3 lengths below benchmark, before -2.0 in the mid race and -0.6 last 400. Did find 2.1 lengths under full pressure last 200. He's shown significant improvement this time in with his two Rosehill wins last spring just -7.0 and -5.0. With wet track indicators from +4.9 to +6.3 he'll thrive into winter conditions. 

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/06. Winner Caloundra Cup 04/07

    Al Duca
    Flemington
    Mar 28, 2026

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 10

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    On pacer who received a "Craig Williams special" leading throughout and producing a new PB in the process. +1.4 lengths above benchmark at the 800 was good speed in the ground, before -1.3 in the mid race and -7.5 last two sections in a slow taper but getting others too tired to chase and pass him. This was a very strong 2.3 length elevation from his first up Caulfield 2nd. Makes his own luck with a very strong top two strike rate. Looks a weapon at this time of year ongoing. Perhaps the Bendigo Golden Mile as the target from here?

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield 11/04.

    Monte Supreme
    Randwick
    Apr 11, 2026

    The 1.2 length 5th in Race 10

    Benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    A hidden run but ready! The race shape was dead against as she got back going just -7.2 at the 800, but her excellent and sustained close of +4.0 and +4.3 last 2 sections which included the 3rd best last 800 and 2nd best last 600 of the day. Last time in she peaked with a +2.1 when winning at Rosehill over 1100 metre when 3rd up, and she looks set to run to that from here. Perhaps the Hawkesbury Crown from here over 1300???

    Subsequently: 5th Randwick, 3rd Hawkesbury, 4th Scone before winner Eagle Farm Listed Lightning 06/06

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.