Premium Wagering Analysis

Members from the old Racetrack Ralphy site can request a password reset to reactivate their account

Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Queensland Magic Millions Sizzlers launched Sandown Boxing Day form Friday morning
December 26
9am

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Transatlantic
    Eagle Farm
    Dec 28, 2024

    The 1.1 length winner of Race 8

    +2.9 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Backed up his best of day performance a week earlier this track/distance when +0.9 lengths above benchmark, with another but did so seriously raising the bar going 2 lengths better overall. -0.4 at the 800, before +2.3 in the mid race, and a booming +7.0 last 400. Got stronger on the line with +3.9 last 200 in isolation which was the 6th best of the day at the end of 1400 metres. This is his first prep as a gelding, and has here stated he might be another Tony Gollan Group 1 winning sprinter/miler like stablemate ANTINO.

    REPOST FOR 2026 MAGIC MILLIONS SIZZLERS: Repeated ANTINO Toorak Handicap win for Tony Gollan Caulfield 11/10

    Apulia
    Flemington
    Nov 6, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of race 5

    -1.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th on the day

    Summary

    Quality 3yo stayer who was beaten a nose in the Derby off a strong Group 3 win Moonee Valley, but missed chunks of 202 and 353 days racing prior to this prep. Won the same 1500 Cox Plate eve as 2024 first up with -1.2 lengths below benchmark - very similar year to year - but this time had 13 rather than 11 days between runs, and at the mile rather than 1800 and it worked. Matched the IVR figure overall, but -8.4 at the 800, before +2.4 mid race and +1.9 last 400 included a 2 length flat spot from the 600 to 200, before picking that up under full pressure. +0.6 all time best is in his sights.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Group 1 Ascot 06/12 before winner 20/12 Ascot Group 2

    Know Thyself
    Gosford
    May 10, 2025

    The one length winner of Race 8

    +0.8 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Airborne! Matched his +0.8 ranked 23rd of Doncaster/TJ Smith/Derby Day but here with the same IVR figure was best of Gosford Day again showing his excellent tenacity when asked. -3.4 at the 800, before -0.9 and -1.4 over the 3 sections. Was having his 5th run for the prep and did lose a length over the last 200, so some caveat should be documented that it may be a sign of a freshen up/spell is needed from here. We underline though his wet track indicator when winning at Scone was a "swimmer" level of +13.0 so would be no surprise if he's headed back there for one more run.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Scone 16/05 and spelled. First up winner $11 Randwick 20/12 

    Step Aside
    Randwick
    Apr 26, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Missed 63 days from his Rosehill win previous start when -1.1 lengths below benchmark, and here has improved his IVR figure slightly from it and did it on genuinely heavy ground. -13.0 at the 800 had him 6 lengths from the lead, -5.1 and -2.0 last two sections, with the context the 2nd best last 400 and best last 200 of the day. Has a PB of +0.2 winning at Rosehill November 2023, so can improve again. That makes him very dangerous again given this is just BM78 level.

    Subsequently: 3rd Sandown 24/05 before twice unplaced in Sydney. Resumed 07/12 Rosehill 4th before winner Randwick 20/12

    Plaintiff
    Rosehill
    Dec 7, 2025

    The nose winner of Race 5

    -0.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Two from two, and while winning by only a nose, has elevated from -2.1 at the midweek meeting 07/12 also over 1200, and showed real tenacity for the fight when challenged. -3.6 at the 800, before -0.2 in the mid race. Last 400 was +5.2 which matched his close from the start prior. This is just BM72 company, so any improvement from here - likely - can see her win again placed conservatively.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 20/12

    Roadcone
    Sandown Hillside
    May 24, 2025

    The 2.3 length winner of race 7

    -1.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Interesting runner with the data saying he's a slow maturing 4yo now in career best form. Arrived from New Zealand from one unplaced run, winning his first two starts April and May 2024, but with only a -3.2 IVR figure as the best of them. Here off a -3.6 at Pakenham but bolting in 08/05 leading throughout, relaxed in front going -1.0, before a small slowdown of -2.1 from the 800 to 400. Last 400 when asked was +3.3, but did lose 1.6 lengths last 200 despite winning by a good margin. Can win similar going up in weight and a Caulfield or Flemington "fence on" day would be ideal. Wet unknown. 

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 14/06 and spelled. Resumed Geelong 23/10 and 3rd up winner Caulfield Heath 20/12

    Touchdown
    Caulfield Heath
    Nov 12, 2025

    The 3.3 length winner of Race 5

    -1.5 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Young horse on the rise whose debut at Cranbourne was in a blistering maiden when 2nd over 1400 early May producing +1.1 lengths above benchmark. Resumed at deep odds on Sale with an easy win, clocking an adjusted IVR time of only -5.5 lengths below benchmark, but +4.1 last 400 which was the 5th best of the meeting at the end of 1411 metres doing all that was required. "Got lost" at Ballarat conceding the leader/winner 7.3 lengths at the 800, before producing a monster 13.2 length squeeze. Here +0.4 at the 800, -1.9 in the mid race and +0.4 last 400 running away. Should sail past benchmark from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Caulfield Heath 03/12 and winner Caulfield Heath 20/12

    Mortal Halo
    Rosehill
    Nov 12, 2025

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 5

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Bolted in his maiden at Scone first up 19 days earlier, but this was a significant improvement on the clock. There just -6.3 lengths below benchmark overall, but it was due to a "cruising and anchor drop" race shape when sitting 2nd line and losing 6.8 lengths speed from the 800 to 400. His last 400 however was +4.0 meaning a booming 12 length turn of foot pick up. Here was the reverse sitting 2nd line again, but +1.6 at the 800 was 2.8 lengths more speed, before +2.2 which was a 10.2 length mid race improvement. Last 400 was -0.7 losing 0.6 last 200 as the early exertion told. Should take a power of beating from here.

    Subsequently: Winner Rosehill 07/12

    Rey Magnerio
    Flemington
    Nov 6, 2025

    The 1 length 3rd in Race 9

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    A genuinely luckless runner who probably would have won with a clear passage, but from a data perspective, his CV strongly suggests staying at the 1000 was equally a challenge with the one fresh run - winning at Caulfield start prior 18/10 - out of his legs. -4.8 at the 800, before +0.2 mid race and +6.5 last 400. Overall the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day and the 2nd best last 200 said he couldn't have done much more. The Meteorite Cranbourne looks a logical next step from here over 1200. Ran 2nd in it last year at his 5th instead of 3rd run for the prep, and his +1.9 PB looks in play.

    Subsequently: 3rd Winterbottom Ascot 29/11, winner Ascot 13/12

    Rey Magnerio
    Caulfield
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 0.3 length winner of Race 6

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return from this high class sprinter, improving a half length on his 1100 win first up last prep also this track, but the data strongly suggests he wasn't as wound up as his booming +1.7 first up 3rd also here September 2024 when a 0.3 length 3rd to subsequent Group 1 winner JIMMYSSTAR. -1.7 at the 800 was in his comfort zone when 2.3 lengths from the lead. +1.9 in the mid race, before a benchmark last 400. However the severe traffic in the straight saw him lose a sharp 2.1 lengths from the 400 to 200, but was able to pick up with 1.2 lengths last 200. He's won 9 races to date, and is likely to keep adding to it!

    Subsequently: 3rd Oaks Day 06/11 Flemington, 3rd Winterbottom 29/11 Ascot, winner Gold Rush 13/12 Ascot

    Theblade
    Rosehill
    Nov 12, 2025

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 7

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 7

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo who in style typical of the stable has slowly built, and this time in now gelded looks set to run to his early promise from bolting in his debut run Kenso August 2024 on very wet ground. Here fourth run in coming off a 2nd at Warwick Farm in blistering time when his +9.0 lengths above benchmark raw time was adjusted to -0.6 allowing for the very firm track, has slightly extended the figure, but did so relaxing in front and having the race well won 150 metres out. This is just BM72 company, so he's well placed to work through the grades on good summer tracks.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/12

    Tuned
    Rosehill
    Dec 7, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 10

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a strong first up win now gelded here 08/11 when -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th best of the day, and after a "sideways" run on very wet ground at Kembla, has returned to the winners list and extended his PB. -4.7 at the 800 stalking the lead, before -1.0 in the mid race and +3.6 last 400. Last 200 in isolation was +2.8 so last bit best bit. This is just BM78 class, so he can continue to work though his grades, and his ability to relax says 1400/1500 should be no issue if asked.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 13/12

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.