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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

Next Meeting
Pakenham Cup Day
December 13
NOW POSTED

Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Theblade
    Rosehill
    Nov 12, 2025

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 7

    The 2.5 length winner of Race 7

    Summary

    Lightly raced 4yo who in style typical of the stable has slowly built, and this time in now gelded looks set to run to his early promise from bolting in his debut run Kenso August 2024 on very wet ground. Here fourth run in coming off a 2nd at Warwick Farm in blistering time when his +9.0 lengths above benchmark raw time was adjusted to -0.6 allowing for the very firm track, has slightly extended the figure, but did so relaxing in front and having the race well won 150 metres out. This is just BM72 company, so he's well placed to work through the grades on good summer tracks.

    Subsequently: Winner Randwick 13/12

    Tuned
    Rosehill
    Dec 7, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 10

    +0.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd best of the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him from a strong first up win now gelded here 08/11 when -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 10th best of the day, and after a "sideways" run on very wet ground at Kembla, has returned to the winners list and extended his PB. -4.7 at the 800 stalking the lead, before -1.0 in the mid race and +3.6 last 400. Last 200 in isolation was +2.8 so last bit best bit. This is just BM78 class, so he can continue to work though his grades, and his ability to relax says 1400/1500 should be no issue if asked.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 13/12

    Weeping Woman
    Rosehill
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 1.2 length winner of Race 9

    Benchmark ranked 9th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return by the 5yo mare with an already solid winning strike rate, with the data strongly suggesting the best is still ahead. Just -5.3 at the 800 sharing the lead at a soft tempo, before +0.9 in the mid race and +5.8 last 400. This was the 3rd best of the day and the 2nd best of her 14 start career. This is a new level from -0.8 and a new first up best from -1.8. Can produce and cope with more early speed, and given this is just BM78 level, can continue through her grades into the summer. 

    Subsequently: Winner Kembla 15/11 Winner Randwick 13/12

    Persian Spirit
    Flemington
    Sep 13, 2025

    The 1.5 length winner of Race 1

    +1.9 lengths above benchmark ranked 3rd on the day

    Summary

    Where did this come from??? Slow maturing 5yo who resumed off a 112 days off and smashed his all time PB of -0.3 when best of the day Geelong last September when also first up, being $51 odds for a reason with nothing in his data to suggest this was coming! -1.0 at the 800 had him 4 lengths from the leader who were overdoing it, +2.2 in the mid race and +3.6 last 400. This included a 0.6 length slowdown from the 400 to 200. There were 3 races at 1100 on the card with the other two stakes v this BM78, but he's produced clearly the best performance of them. On face value he'll work through his classes this spring.

    Subsequently: 5th Flemington 04/10. Then 4th Geelong Cup Day 23/10 before winner Flemington 04/11. Nose 2nd Caulfield 29/11 then winner Pakenham 13/11

    Persian Spirit
    Flemington
    Nov 4, 2025

    The 4.3 length winner of Race 10

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    We sizzled him 1st up from a clear career PB 13/09 over 1100 here when +1.9 lengths below benchmark, and the data strongly suggests that left him flat, and took speed out of his legs the following start when a "sideways" -2.6 three weeks later. Last start at Geelong on their Cup Day slow going his overall time was just -5.0, but the closing speed was back, producing the best last 800, 600 and 400 of the day. Now up to 1400 for the first time this prep when -7.6 at the 800, before a brilliant +10.4 from the 800 to 400 going +2.8. His last 400 stayed strong with +1.4. If he holds this level at this time of year, more wins are in store!

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Caulfield 29/11 then winner Pakenham 13/12

    Persian Spirit
    Caulfield
    Nov 29, 2025

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 10

    +0.1 length above benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Just missed and couldn't have had a more negative race shape chasing the all the way high quality leader HERE TO SHOCK. -11.5 at the 800 had him conceding 5.7 lengths, before +1.2 from the 800 to 400. That was a booming 12.8 length mid race squeeze which was 6 lengths more than the winner. Sustained his run home with +3.1 last 400 with his close including the best last 600 and 400 of the day, and the 2nd best last 200. Is clearly in the best form of his career, and his ability to relax and close says a mile looks no issue. Maybe the Lord Stakes Sandown Boxing Day?

    Subsequently: Winner Pakenham 13/11

    Warnie
    Caulfield
    Oct 18, 2025

    The 1.5 length 2nd in Race 8

    +0.4 lengths above benchmark ranked 6th on the day

    Summary

    Fourth run since returning from QLD and had the negative of inside barriers for his "relaxed" style of racing in his past three starts including here with the tempo also against. Importantly though this is his best IVR figure to date chasing proven high class WFA performer PRIVATE EYE. -7.4 and -3.5 first two sections, before a booming +3.6 last 400 which was the 7th best of the day. 1400-mile at Flemington in a race of tempo and with full momentum Cup week looks perfect for him.

    Subsequently: Winner Flemington 01/11 Derby Day 1400. Unplaced Cranbourne Cup 23/11 then winner $1 million Pakenham Supernova 

    The Black Cloud
    Kembla Grange
    Nov 22, 2025

    The 0.3 length 2nd in Race 7

    -1.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 11th on the day

    Summary

    Good quality "off season" mare who just missed in having a first up try at stakes level on a deteriorating track, but should be returning to the winner's list again this prep here off a 119 day spell. -3.2 and -2.2 first two sections which were clearly on the worst part of the course, before +3.0 last 400. The last 200 in isolation under full pressure was +3.6 which was the 3rd best of the day. Has a PB of +0.9 set May 2024, showing her scope for improvement from this run.

    Subsequently: Winner Eagle Farm 13/12

    Shockletz
    Flemington
    Jun 7, 2025

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 8

    -1.3 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Nice win! On a leader advantaged day, she's made up 6.4 lengths from the front when going -4.2 at the 800 in a high pressure race shape. -0.2 in the mid race, before +0.6 last 400 before getting up in the last stride. The last 200 was a 2.2 length "launch" which was the 17th best of the day at the end of 2000 metres. She's dragged her PB up a significant 3 lengths, and did so while stepping from a mile to 2000 metres. Highly likely to get a softer tempo race shape from here and that should equate to further improvement 4th up. Looks set for a very solid winter.

    Subsequently: 0.3 length 2nd Flemington 21/06 then winner Flemington 05/07. Spell then winner Sandown 01/10

    REPOST: 4th up Pakenham Cup day winner 11/12

    Manolo Bling
    Bendigo
    Apr 12, 2025

    The 2 length winner of Race 5

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Made it two wins from two first up runs, but this was a 4 length improvement from her debut Caulfield July (on very wet ground in complete contrast to the firm ground here) and lifted her PB from -0.6. That all points to more wins ahead from this 4th best of the strong off season day. -0.6 at the 800, before +4.3 in the mid race and +3.4 last 400. That she ran the 2nd best last 800 and 600 of the day, but just the 17th best last 200 also backs up the "more to come" premise.

    Repost: Pakenham Cup Day winner 2nd up 13/12

    Hoba West
    Ascot
    Nov 8, 2025

    The 0.9 length winner of race 2

    -1.9 lengths below benchmark ranked 32nd on the day

    Summary

    This horse is airborne! First prep new stable and has now won 3 from his 4 starts in blinkers, and given this is just one metro win company, he's got more to come if he can hold this level. Cruised going -6.6 at the 800, before -1.7 in the mid race, before "letting rip" from the leading line with +7.5 last 400 which was the 15th best of the day. For context however his two wins at Northam were best of the day -3.1 early October, and +0.2 in his lead in to this. That was Northam Cup day also over a mile underlining how well he's going given his winning figure was similar to that Listed level feature.

    Subsequently: 2nd Ascot 29/11 then winner 13/12

    Dirty Grin
    Moonee Valley
    Apr 26, 2025

    The 0.4 length winner of Race 6

    -0.1 lengths below benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    5yo who is airborne for the new stable, bringing up his 3rd win from 4 starts with this being the best, but has also produced -0.7 best of the day Benalla 16/02. Here -5.8 at the 800 when 6 lengths from the lead, -2.3 in the mid race and note that was on the softest part of the track, before -3.5 last 400. 10th best last 800 of the day underlined the good sustained chase, but he did peak on his run with just the 26th best last 200. This is just BM70 grade, so can win again with conservative progression class wise.

    Subsequently: Nose 2nd Caulfield 31/05 before unplaced Sandown 14/06 and spelled. First up Geelong winner 26/11

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.

Swanny & Friends

After a debacle of a first season, Dane Swan is back to talk footy and irrelevant life issues. Mainly the latter.