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Detailed Runner By Runner Full Meeting Analysis

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Caulfield mini-form. Tips, race overviews, speed maps and assessed prices.
April 27
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Sizzlers Recent Winners

    Seonee
    Caulfield
    Apr 6, 2024

    The 0.5 length 2nd in Race 8

    +0.2 lengths above benchmark ranked 5th on the day

    Summary

    Had good market support for this 2nd up run, and elevated from -2.2 first up here 3 weeks earlier. -4.1 at the 800 stalking the leaders, -1.2 mid race and +0.2 last 400. This included a 1.6 length slowdown from the 600 to 400. Last prep peaked with +1.5 best of the midweek card at Sandown 2nd up March 2023 in a high pressure firm track BM78, but on softer tracks, later won at starts 5, 6, 7 and 8 with the latter at Listed level in SA. Looks perfectly set up to go back there for a mares stakes race at their upcoming carnival. 

    Subsequently: Winner Morphettville 27/04 Queen of The South Group 2 

    Climbing Star
    Caulfield
    Oct 21, 2023

    The 1.3 length 2nd in Race 8

    -0.4 lengths below benchmark ranked 21st on the day

    Summary

    Chased the all the way winner BUFFALO RIVER hard and is now set to go past her all time PB of +1.4 set at Flemington over a mile. -2.2 at the 800 before +3.9 in the mid race. The context is she improve 6.2 lengths through clearly the slowest part of the track on the day being one of very few horses to have broken benchmark between the 600 and 400. Last 400 was -4.7 with -3.9 last 200 in isolation as a complete tank out. Typically can produce +4 last 400 on a good surface with a suitable race shape.

    Subsequently: Unplaced Flemington 09/11 and spelled. Resumed 23/03 winning SA, 13/04 SA 2nd to Benedetta then winner Group 1 Sangster 27/04

    Who Dares
    Flemington
    Jan 1, 2024

    The nose 2nd in Race 7

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 2nd on the day

    Summary

    Consistent fast 4yo who just missed here from winning a BM70 at Sandown with his previous PB of +0.8. Here his early speed of +6.5 was similar high pressure to the start prior, but +3.2 in the mid race showed it was sustained at a high tempo. Last 400 was understandable taper going -1.4. His raw time was +8.2 adjusted down for the "outlier" race shape, and we caveat that this could see some flatness if running again within 3 weeks, but this performance was very solid and deserving of respect going forward.

    Subsequently: 2nd Caulfield to JIMMYSSTAR 03/02 then unplaced mile Flemington 17/02. Resumed winner Caulfield 20/04

    Hard To Say
    Rosehill
    Feb 3, 2024

    The 1.7 length 2nd in Race 4

    +1.0 length above benchmark ranked 4th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd behind the airborne LADY LAGUNA elevating to a new PB from just -2.7 first up Magic Millions Day Gold Coast. -5.3 at the 800, +3.9 in the mid race meaning a booming +9.2 squeeze - the best of his career - and further extended it was a +8.1 last 400. Again that was the best of his career. 3rd best last 800 of the day, 2nd best last 600 and 400 and the best last 200 of the day. Won all four starts last prep and looks very hard to stop from getting the main prize from here in a similar Group 3/Listed sprint.

    Subsequently: 3rd Group 3 Randwick 02/03, unplaced Rosehill 16/03, then winner Rosehill 20/04

    Skybird
    Moonee Valley
    Oct 28, 2023

    The 0.2 length winner of Race 6

    +1.3 lengths above benchmark ranked 16th on the day

    Summary

    A dramatic last to first win to the eye and the clock backed it up. Came from a best of the day performance at Bendigo with +0.3 lengths above benchmark closing with the best last 600 and 400 of the day. -8.4 at the 800, -1.1 in the mid race, before unleashing with a "serious" +9.8 last 400 with +6.6 of that the last 200 in isolation. That was the 2nd best of Cox Plate day at the end of a mile. Regardless of the soft early tempo that is excellent closing speed. Looks set for the 1000 Guineas from this in three weeks time, and if she only holds this form should take a power of beating.

    Subsequently: Unplaced 1000 Guineas and spelled. First up unplaced Bendigo 06/04 then winner Morphettville 20/04 Group 2 Tobin Bronze

    Sea What I Sea
    Flemington
    Mar 30, 2024

    The 2.3 length winner of Race 6

    -1.0 length below benchmark ranked 23rd on the day

    Summary

    4yo mare who has all four of her career wins this unbeaten prep, and we just haven't got a ceiling on her other than expecting more to come. -0.7 at the 800, before a sharp 4.5 length loss of speed going just -5.1 in the mid race as the leaders dropped anchor. +3.7 was a booming pick up, most of which (+2.7) was in the last 200 in isolation when winning easily. Two other wins have been by big margins, with the only narrow victory at Moonee Valley when out of severe traffic half way up the straight. We look forward to measuring her progress, with her ability to relax before unleashing a big sprint likely to be an ongoing asset.

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Cup Day 20/04

    Maharba
    Caulfield
    Mar 16, 2024

    The 0.8 length 2nd in Race 10

    +0.7 length 2nd in Race 10

    Summary

    Excellent 2nd up progression from -2.6 this track/distance 3 weeks earlier, and this is actually a new PB for him chasing the rock hard fit BRUDENELL. -2.2 at the 800, -1.4 in the mid race, before +2.7 last 400. Of note he lost 1.5 lengths last 200 in isolation, so there's full expectations of conditioning benefits to come. Showed Cox Plate day he can produce a booming (+7.5) length last 400 off a soft tempo, but can also take a position in the run. Could step back to 3yo company next start, but either way be very hard to beat in similar.  

    Subsequently: Winner Mornington Hareeba Listed 20/04

    Frigid
    Moonee Valley
    Mar 23, 2024

    The 0.6 length 4th in Race 4

    -0.6 lengths below benchmark ranked 17th on the day

    Summary

    Excellent return after 182 days away. +2.3 at the 800 when 3 back the fence in a fast run 1500, +1.0 in the mid race and -3.5 last 400. Did find traffic, but also was inside in the slower lanes. Last prep peaked with +1.1 lengths above benchmark winning at Sandown 5th run in, as well as a Caulfield win with +0.2. Her last 400 when fit was between +2.3 and +6.0, so that's where improvement should come. Should elevate from this and be very hard to beat.

    Subsequently: 3rd Caulfield 06/04 then winner Mornington Cup Day 20/04

    Overpass
    Ascot
    Dec 2, 2023

    The 1.7 length winner of Race 9

    +2.5 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Won this Group 1 at the same track/distance as the Quokka in April which was +3.6 but off a lead speed of +4.3. Here cruised in front going -2.7 so 7 lengths slower first 400 metres! +2.2 mid race and +3.6 last 400 made it effectively impossible for him to be caught. No reason he can't run a strong 1400 if staying here for the Gold Rush in a fortnight. 

    Subsequently: Spelled and first up winner Quokka 20/04

    Magnificent Andy
    Ascot
    Nov 25, 2023

    The 0.2 length 2nd in Race 6

    +1.8 lengths above benchmark ranked 7th on the day

    Summary

    (Note added 15/12. Customers emailed.) Deep into his prep, but airborne with this performance the 2nd best of his career, from his +2.6 winning at Kalgoorlie in a high pressure Listed 1400 over LET'S GALAHVANT who just beat him here. +1.4 at the 800 sitting 2nd line, +3.6 in the mid race and +1.6 last 400. Only has to hold this level tomorrow to take a power of beating for Oliver. 

    Subsequently: Winner Ascot 15/12. Spelled and winner Ascot 20/04

    Magic Time
    Caulfield
    Nov 18, 2023

    The 1 length winner of Race 8

    +2.3 lengths above benchmark ranked best of the day

    Summary

    Stamped herself at a new level this prep continuing her terrific level producing +2.3, +2.0 and +2.3 in her last three runs including here. +3.1 at the 800 sitting midfield, +2.7 in the mid race and -2.0 last 400. Note in the first of her wins her last 400 was +6.5 off a softer lead speed showing her tactical versatility. Her previous level was +0.6, so she's trending the right way to get into the high +3 range which could see her win a mares Group 1 like the Coolmore or Queen of The Turf.

    Subsequently: Spelled. Resumed unplaced Newmarket and TJ Smith, before winner All Aged Stakes Randwick 20/04

    Broadcasting
    Randwick
    Apr 13, 2024

    The 2.1 length winner of Race 1

    -5.8 lengths below benchmark ranked 88th on the day

    Summary

    A very low IVR figure to make Sizzlers, but the context is at time of writing he's backing up in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes, and this race shape combined with his ability to relax and close, says he can sail past his -3.7 PB to date and run very well. -9.3 at the 800, before -1.2 in the mid race, and +3.2 last 400. Was in traffic throughout relaxing in the run as he stepped to the mile for the first time, and was only clear half way up the straight. That he let down with +2.9 last 200 which was the 15th best of the day is a great sign, and he's previously closed with a +4.1 and +3.5 last 400 so his closing speed is fully franked for a juvenile. 

    Subsequently: Winner Champagne Stakes 20/04

About Racetrack Ralphy

After a career in mainstream media including The Footy Show, Sunday Footy Show, Triple M, the ABC and SEN, I started this service in 2012 and was then lucky enough to shortly after be paired with Vince Accardi (Daily Sectionals) at RSN. Despite being a passionate racing fan all my life including being hands-on as a strapper when a teenager, and a racing manager for a private owner that gave me privileged insights into the Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman stables, I soon learned how much I didn't know. I've since immersed myself in the study of sectional times, and now concentrate on Melbourne city racing for my "meetings" work.

In a nutshell, this is the type of information I would have wanted from a form guide back when I had a "real" job and before I started doing this

I provide a detailed race overview, surmised by a "suggested bet" reflective of my personal thoughts and confidence at time of posting Saturday morning*, (see below) a market to 100% with an assessed price for any runner $41 or below, I write a paragraph on nearly every horse, (the odd "no hoper" is given barely a line) with all analysis and opinions based on my own work and seen via the prism of Vince Accardi's IVR post meeting data reports.

Why the Italics of "at time of posting Saturday morning"?

The legendary Sydney form analyst Dominic Beirne once said "you'll quickly go broke ignoring the collective intelligence of the market". So when I post/make available for purchase early Saturday morning, I do so with the confidence that I have written up deeply researched information that has formed my opinions. However pre-race once a flood of money has cascaded into the market, "new" information has entered the equation and it shapes how I approach my personal confidence and thoughts, and particularly with "unknowns" such as a first up horse - how fit does the market expect it to be? - or a runner having his 2nd start after an easy slow time debut country win - does the market think he was capable of much more? - just two examples.

What don't I provide?

I don't tell you how you should spend your money with a staking plan. (I once did. I stopped it. My strength and this service's DNA is providing good quality deeply researched analysis.) As the old gag goes about legendary Australian businessman Kerry Packer, he was never a big punter despite betting millions because he never had his last $20 on anything. Everyone's personal circumstances and reasons for purchasing are different. I never cut corners with information provided nor intent for it to be helpful to each and every customer. From there use it how you wish and please gamble responsibly.